MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (14 Games)
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Shohei Ohtani @ OAK
Ohtani had the night off from hitting last night and will get the start here tonight in a favorable matchup with Oakland. He just started against the A’s and it was hit first start with under 10 strikeouts since mid-June. I do think he gets back on track here tonight and after having the night off last night could have a little extra rest here. The upside for Shohei is crazy. Oakland comes into this game with a 24% strikeout rate against RHP over the last 2 weeks. ALL FORMATS
Gerrit Cole @ SEA
Cole gets the start here for the Yanks tonight against Seattle again. He just faced them in his last start and if it wasn’t for the horrible first inning, Cole would have had a decent start. He still managed to record 8 K’s in 6 innings but would have had a much better stat line if he didn’t give up 3 HR and 6 runs in the first inning because he settled down well after that. Seattle does seem to have the Yanks number at times, but they still are only hitting .191 against RHP in the last 2 weeks. I think this is a good bounce back spot for Cole on the road here in a more favorable ballpark than Yankee Stadium. ALL FORMATS
Alek Manoah @ BAL
Manoah has struggled a bit more over his last 2 starts, but overall he still has been really consistent for the Jays on the season. He faced Baltimore one time this year so far and went 6 innings, allowing just 1 hit and struck out 7. Manoah doesn’t usually have much of a problem throwing 6+ innings for Toronto and will get a decent matchup. The worry I have here is his price and strikeout upside. He isn’t a huge strikeout guy and Baltimore has been red-hot at the plate lately and are moving themselves into a playoff seed. With his price and lack of strikeout upside, I am going to leave him for GPPs in hopes that he manages to get about a K per inning. GPP
Zack Wheeler vs MIA
We have a ton of pitching options on this massive 14 game slate, so stay with me here folks. Wheeler has tossed 7 innings in 5 of his last 6 starts. At home this year, Wheeler has been pretty unhittable. He is allowing just a .183 batting average against and has a 1.58 ERA compared to a 4.24 ERA on the road. He has the strikeout stuff to get at least a K per inning while he’s out there too. Miami has been middle of the pack in terms of strikeout rate against RHP over the last couple of weeks, but they are hitting just .220 as a team and have an ISO of .116 against RHP. Wheeler really did struggle in his only start against the Marlins this season, where he allowed 7 ER in just 3 innings but that was only his 2nd start of the season. With how he has been throwing the ball lately, I do like his upside in this matchup. ALL FORMATS
Joe Musgrove vs SFG
Musgrove is coming off a horrible start against the Rockies in his last time out, where he allowed 6 ER in just 4.2 innings. I like this bounce-back spot for Musgrove against a Giants team that seems like their offense isn’t really there. In 2 starts against the Giants this year, Musgrove has tossed 14 innings, not allowing a run and striking out 10 while hitters are hitting .111 against him. San Fran comes into this game with a 22.7% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks, while hitting .214 and an ISO of .129. A guy like Musgrove can bounce back from a bad start and I do like his matchup here tonight. ALL FORMATS
Luis Castillo vs NYY
Castillo faces the Yanks for the 3rd time this season and 2nd time as a Mariner. In his last start against them he tossed 6.2 innings, allowing 3 ER but struck out 8 hitters in the win. In 2 starts against the Yankees, he has 13.2 innings, 16 K’s and allowing just a .149 batting average against. Castillo has thrown at least 6 innings in 6 straight starts and always has the upside to score well. An offense can start to figure out a pitcher seeing them so many times in such quick turnarounds (3rd start against NYY since July 14th), but sometimes pitchers can change how they throw too. I do like his upside here as he struck out 8 hitters both times he’s faced them already. ALL FORMATS
Shane Bieber @ DET
Bieber has a great matchup against the Tigers here tonight who come into this game with the 2nd highest strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks at 27.7% and are hitting only .218 with an ISO of just .101. He is coming off 2 really good starts against TB and ARI and gets another easy matchup against the Tigers. Bieber has faced the Tigers 3 times this season and has 21 K’s in 20.2 innings. He has struggled a little against them though and more so in his last time facing them where he allowed 5 ER in 5.2 innings. Since that start though, he has 3 great starts and 1 bad one. I do like his price here tonight and with all the options we have, ownership will be very spread out. ALL FORMATS
Martin Perez @ HOU
Perez has been a very big bright spot for the Rangers this year and he has jolted his career with Texas. On the season, he has just a 2.47 ERA in 21 starts and allowing hitters to hit just .232. Houston is one of the best hitting teams in baseball but Perez seems to have their number this season. In 2 starts against the Astros this year, Perez has thrown 16 innings and allowed just 1 run against them. He isn’t a massive strikeout guy, but he finds ways to get outs and go deep into games. It’s a very risky play here tonight against a team that isn’t striking out a lot against lefties, but I do like how he has thrown against Houston this year. GPP
Carlos Carrasco vs CIN
Cookie has been a little better at home this year for the Mets and now that their rotation is healthy, the Mets are really going to be a problem to end this season. He gets a very good matchup against the Reds here too. The Reds come into this game with a 27.3% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting just .213 and an ISO of .106. He isn’t a massive strikeout guy, but he has had some starts where he gets a few extra. In this matchup tonight I think he can get a few extra K’s against the free-swinging Reds lineup. ALL FORMATS
Charlie Morton @ BOS
Boston’s offense has been struggling a bit of late and now they face the defending champions in the Braves for a series. Morton was fantastic in his last start against the Phillies, where he tossed 6.2 innings with 8 K’s and really had the strikeout pitch working. Boston has a 23.8% K rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and their power has really dropped off. Their lineup some nights looks really bad outside of Devers and Bogaerts. Not many other hitters are doing much for them of late. Morton has a 26.9% strikeout rate against the Red Sox roster but only 4 guys have more than 10 ABs against him in their careers. If his curve is working tonight, I do think Morton can run through this offense. GPP
Jose Urquidy vs TEX
Urquidy is coming off of 9 straight quality starts for the Astros and really has turned his season around, dropping his ERA from 4.99 to 3.62. He has not allowed more than 3 ER in 9 straight starts and managed to record 10 K’s in 7 innings against Boston allowing just 2 hits. The Rangers have a 23.9% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and Urquidy has shown that he does have the stuff to record a bunch of strikeouts in a start. LEAN GPP, but can be used in CASH.
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Shohei Ohtani
- Shane Bieber
- Zack Wheeler
- Joe Musgrove
- Luis Castillo
- Gerrit Cole
- Alek Manoah
- Carlos Carrasco
- Charlie Morton
- Jose Urquidy
- Martin Perez
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Mets
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Cleveland Guardians
DINGER OF THE DAY
May 30, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) is covered with sunflower seeds in the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Pete Alonso
Right back to the well with Pete Alonso here as my dinger of the day call. Minor has not been good against righties this season where he’s allowing a 1.050 OPS and 13 HR to RHB on the season. He also has struggled on the road too. The Mets offense has massive upside in this matchup here.
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Featured Image:
Oct 8, 2021; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Charlie Morton (50) pitches in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers during game one of the 2021 NLDS at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
