We are now into August and the playoff races will start to heat up!
MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (13 Games)
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Josiah Gray @ PHI
Gray has been much better on the road this season. Looking at his pitching splits, he has a 2.45 ERA on the road compared to 6.75 at home. Gray also has allowed 6 fewer HR on the road and just a .187 batting average against. What I really like for GPPs is he has pitched well against the Phillies this season. In 2 starts, he has tossed 12 innings with 15 K’s and a .116 BAA. Last time he faced them on the road he tossed 6 innings, allowing 2 ER but had a massive 11 strikeouts! Philly has been middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts in the last couple of weeks. I like the splits we get on Gray. GPP
Framber Valdez @ CLE
Another guy we have here who has been better pitching on the road this season, and he’s on the road tonight. Valdez has made 4 more starts on the road this year and has 2 complete games there too. Going 6+ innings hasn’t been hard for him as he has done that in his last 17 starts, the only ones he didn’t was his 2nd and 3rd start of the season back in May. Talk about consistency for the lefty. Hitters are hitting just .176 against him on the road. His strikeout numbers aren’t the best, but he does flash some upside. CLE doesn’t strike out a whole lot against LHP, but over the last 2 weeks they are hitting just .225 with an ISO under .100. I like his upside here. GPP/ALL
Corey Kluber @ DET
The KluBOT gets a wonderful matchup against the Tigers here tonight. DET comes into this game just looking bad on offense against right-handers. They have the 3rd highest strikeout rate at 26.9% while hitting just .196 and an ISO of .090. Kluber is coming off a decent start against the Guardians where he tossed 6 innings and struck out 10 hitters. The only thing keeping him from getting that QS bonus last time out was the 4 ER he allowed. Despite that, he still scored pretty well fantasy wise. This is a much better matchup for him against the Tigers here too. ALL FORMATS
Dylan Cease @ TEX
Cease gets the ball tonight against the Rangers on the road here. Cease has been having a breakout season for the White Sox this year and is one of the main reasons they are still in the AL Central race so far. He is coming into this start with a 33.3% strikeout rate on the season too and allowing hitters to hit just .202 against him. With his strikeout ability and the matchup against the Rangers, I think he can have another good outing here tonight and I do like him in all formats considering the options we have tonight. ALL FORMATS
Eric Lauer vs CIN
Finally we get a starter who is throwing the ball at home here! Lauer came out with the win last time out against Boston, but he wasn’t exactly sharp. He threw a lot of pitches and only made it 5 innings. The Reds though, coming into this game have the 3rd highest strikeout rate against LHP over the last 2 weeks at 29%. Lauer isn’t a massive strikeout guy, but if he can take advantage of the free-swinging Reds right now he could still rack up 6-7 K’s if he can stay efficient and keep the ball in the yard. LEAN GPP
Jose Berrios @ MIN
Big series here with the Twins and the Blue Jays. Berrios has looked much better of late after really struggling to start the season. He ended July with pretty good numbers and now will look to keep that going in August. He has not allowed more than 3 ER in 6 starts after allowing 14 ER in the 2 before that. Berrios did pitch well last time he faced the Twins, going 7 innings with 13 K’s, allowing just 2 ER in the outing. He looks to be getting his confidence back and I think he will take it to his former team once again. GPP/ALL
Madison Bumgarner vs COL
This is an interesting matchup here for the Diamondbacks and MadBum. He obviously isn’t the same MadBum as he used to be, but he actually hasn’t been brutal of late. I do think he has a good matchup with the Rockies here at home. He’s been better of late and the last time he faced Colorado at home he tossed 7 innings with 5 K’s in the win. COL is middle of the pack at 25% K rate to LHP in the last 2 weeks which ranks 11th in the league. they are hitting just .200 though with a .103 ISO. I don’t mind taking the risk at him for a cheaper price here. GPP
Robbie Ray vs LAA
Ray has looked BRUTAL over his last 2 starts, but he did have to face the Astros twice and they are a great hitting team against lefties. Now he gets a more favorable matchup against the Angels. Before the starts against Houston, Ray was pitching very well for the Mariners as they look to make a WC push in August. Before those two starts, Ray did not allow more than 3 ER in 8 starts and was tossing over 6 innings in most of them. LAA isn’t striking out much against LHP of late, but they aren’t hitting that great either. Yes, they have the HR power, but I am going to make a prediction that they don’t even hit a homer tonight after smacking 7 solo shots in the loss last night. Ray has been fantastic at home this year, with 75 K’s in 67 innings and allowing hitters to hit just .202 against him. Against the Angels this year, he had just 1 start where he went 7 innings and struck out 10 hitters. ALL FORMATS
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Corey Kluber
- Dylan Cease
- Robbie Ray
- Jose Berrios
- Framber Valdez
- Eric Lauer
- Josiah Gray
- Madison Bumgarner
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- Milwaukee Brewers
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DINGER OF THE DAY
Brandon Lowe
Lowe has been a little better of late. He has 2 HR over his last 5 games and has multi hit games in 3 of his last 5. Garcia has allowed 2.45 HR/9 so far this year and Lowe has massive power when he’s locked in. There are a ton of options I could have went tonight, but I want to go with Lowe here.
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Featured Image:
Jul 30, 2022; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Corey Kluber (28) throws a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays during the second inning at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
