We are now into August and today is the Trade Deadline! We still have some other guys that will be moved today so we need to keep an eye on those last minute trades tonight with the Deadline being at 6pm EST! Buckle up!
MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (13 Games)
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Corbin Burnes @ PIT
Burnes is coming off a wonderful start against the Twins and now has a better matchup here against the Pirates too. 3 of his last 4 starts he has over 10 strikeouts too. The Pirates come into this game with a 29.3% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting just .187 with an ISO of .094. The Brewers pitching has changed a little with them trading away Hader yesterday, but Burnes isn’t going anywhere and he has immense upside in this start to score massive fantasy points. ALL FORMATS
Kevin Gausman @ TB
Gausman has struggled here and there, but he had a very tough matchup last time out against the Cardinals. Before that, he scored pretty well. The last time he pitched against the Rays, was when he got hurt and only tossed 2 innings. Looking at his splits so far this year, Gausman has actually been a lot better on the road compared to home in Toronto. He has pitched to a 2.34 ERA compared to 4.19 ERA at home. Over 50 innings, he has 59 K’s and allows just a .247 batting average against. His numbers against Tampa aren’t bad, but really only has 1 full start against them this year. In the last 2 weeks against RHP, the Rays have a 24% strikeout rate, and their power hasn’t really been there with a .119 ISO. I like his upside, but there has been some worry of late and the Rays have some decent numbers against him, but only David Peralta has significant ABs against him, that’s if he plays today. ALL FORMATS
Jacob deGrom @ WSH
The Nats will be without Soto and Bell likely by the time this game starts today. That will water down the lineup a ton. deGrom is making his season debut after dealing with shoulder injuries this year. He likely will be on a pitch limit, but deGrom is a guy who can go 6 innings and rack up 10 K’s in that pitch count. The upside for him is just so high and he hasn’t allowed a ton of runs in the MLB in 4 years. Love his upside, but I still do worry about his pitch count. GPP, but can use in ALL FORMATS.
Triston McKenzie vs ARI
Arizona traded away Peralta and even though he wasn’t doing much this year, still was a decent bat in their lineup. My worry here is the Diamondbacks don’t strikeout a ton against RHP. McKenzie though, has been pretty solid in the month of July and now gets to keep that rolling into August. In 5 starts in July he tossed 33.2 innings and allowed just 5 ER and 4 of them came in the last start against Boston where he still went 7 innings. I do like his upside here and he has been really good at home this season. GPP
Cristian Javier vs BOS
Javier gets the ball against Boston here tonight at home where he has been lights out this season. He has a 2.55 ERA with a 64:18 K:BB and allows a .153 batting average against. Since Javier was lights out against NYY and LAA he has struggled a bit going deep into games. Since that Angels start he has not thrown more than 5 innings even though he was able to rack up 10 K’s in 3.2 innings against the Angels. The Red Sox though, have been really struggling lately. Boston has a 27.9% strikeout rate against RHP over the last 2 weeks and we know the strikeout upside Javier has when he takes the mound at home. ALL FORMATS
Tyler Anderson @ SFG
Anderson is going into San Fran with one of the top WHIP’s in the league at 0.99 and has an ERA of 2.61 over 110 innings this year. The Giants offense has really been struggling of late and they have a 26.6% strikeout rate against lefties in the last 2 weeks while hitting just .227. Anderson has really found it this year with the Dodgers and doesn’t allow many runs. He has 5 straight quality starts and has not allowed a run in 3 straight starts, one of which was against these Giants where he went 6 innings with 6 K’s. I like Anderson’s upside and price here. I don’t think he has a ton of strikeout upside, but he can go deep into the game. CASH
Adam Wainwright vs CHC
Waino has been really good at home this season for the Cards. The worry with him is his strikeouts are very up and down for him. The last time he faced the Cubs, he did not record a single strikeout. At home this year though, he has a 2.01 ERA with 51 K’s in 58 innings allowing a .224 BAA. He was dominant in his last start against Toronto where he tossed 7 innings with 8 K’s and allowed just 1 ER. I do see his upside against the Cubs who could potentially be making some more trades today before the deadline is over which would likely include Happ and Contreras if they make some more moves. If that happens, the Cubs lineup does get a bit weaker. GPP
Spencer Strider vs PHI
I always love this kid when he takes the mound for the Braves. He has elite strikeout stuff and has many games where he has over 10 K’s this season already. The problem with him is the Braves don’t let him go too deep into games. He only has 4 starts where he has made it 6 innings which hurts his chances at getting the QS bonus on Fanduel. In 2 appearances against the Phillies this year (1 start, 1 RP), he has thrown 8.2 innings with 11 K’s and just 1 ER while limiting their offense to a .103 batting average. The Phillies aren’t striking out all that much against RHP in the last couple of weeks, but Strider does have the upside to toss 6 innings and rack up over 10 K’s when he’s on. GPP
Cole Irvin @ LAA
Some interest here for Irvin as he takes the rubber against the Angels here tonight. Coming into this game, the Angels are still struggling a lot at the plate and against LHP in the last 2 weeks have a 23.2% strikeout rate. Add in the fact that they are hitting just .170 with an ISO of .125 against LHP makes me have interest in Irvin. Irvin has tossed at least 6 innings in 6 straight starts, recording a QS in 5 of his last 6 games. His strikeouts aren’t always there, but he has flashed some upside and has tossed the ball very well against Houston 3 out of his last 4 starts. The Angels offense isn’t as dangerous as Houston is and I can see Irvin having a great start here tonight. GPP
Lucas Giolito vs KCR
Giolito has really struggled of late and that’s why his price is so low. I mean, 6.8k on DraftKings?!?! Has to be a CORE Play there with his upside. I know he hasn’t thrown the ball that well, but he’s just way too cheap in this matchup against the Royals offense. Over the last 2 weeks against RHP, KCR has a 25.6% strikeout rate and just .123 ISO. Since losing Benintendi, their strikeout numbers have increased. Giolito has been up and down this season and had a couple really bad starts at the end of June and 2 really bad ones in July. He will look to turn it around here in his first start in August. CORE SP2 on DK, ALL FORMATS FD
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Corbin Burnes
- Kevin Gausman
- Cristian Javier
- Jacob deGrom
- Lucas Giolito (CORE SP2 on DK)
- Spencer Strider
- Cole Irvin
- Triston McKenzie
- Tyler Anderson
- Adam Wainwright
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- New York Mets
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Minnesota Twins
- New York Yankees
- St. Louis Cardinals
DINGER OF THE DAY
Jonathan Schoop
Last time that Schoop faced Chris Archer, I had him as my dinger of the day call and he hit one out. Well, I’m going back to him tonight against Archer yet again. He clearly sees the ball well against Archer even though his overall season numbers aren’t the best. Over his career, he is 16-44 with 3 doubles and 6 home runs against Archer and look for him to make it 7 homers tonight.
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Featured Image:
Jun 25, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) hands the ball to manager Craig Counsell during a pitching change in the eighth inning of the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
