Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Aug 7, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) throws a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Kevin Gausman O 90.5 pitches thrown
TOR vs CHC
Toronto played an extra innings game on Monday. They used 5 relief pitchers including 2 (Mayza, Cimber) who pitched on Sunday. Every single Blue Jays reliever has made an appearance either Monday or Sunday. Gausman is the ace of the staff. He is capable of throwing over 100 pitches in any given start. In his last two starts, he has thrown 86 and 88 pitches. The 86 pitch start got him through 7 innings of shutout ball against the Yankees. The 88 pitch start was a rough one as he only managed to go 5IP and gave up 4ER. Chicago is a much easier matchup today. The Jays bullpen is pretty beat up right now. If he ends an inning at 89 or 90 pitches, he should go back out there. This line is too low for the kind of pitcher Gausman is.
Lucas Giolito U 34.5fpt
CWS vs KC
Giolito’s line always seems too high. He often gets bumped down because he just is not the pitcher that he once was. He is still 28 years old but just cannot quite figure it out this year. All of his numbers are worse than last season. Using Giolito’s lines for other categories, 6IP, 2ER, 6K, QS would give him a total of 34fpt. This is giving him the benefit of the doubt as his lines are 17.5 outs, 2.5ER, and 5.5K. On the other side, Brady Singer is really putting it all together. The White Sox are dealing with a lot of injuries. Their offense has been a disappointment. Giolito’s odds for a win are +255. Singer is +115. Without the win, it will be extremely tough for Giolito to go over 34.5. He would have to outperform in multiple pitching categories.
George Kirby U 38.5fpt
SEA @ DET
This is a great matchup for Kirby. The Tigers are one of the worst offenses in baseball. However, Kirby has his own issues. The Mariners have been very careful with him in an effort to manage his workload. He often goes less than 90 pitches. This could make it difficult to go 6 innings to record the quality start. Those 4pts are crucial for pitchers at this high of a line. His lines are set at 17.5 pitching outs, 2.5ER, 5.5K. Giving him 6IP, 2ER, 6K, QS, Kirby would have 34fpt. He would need both the quality start and the win to go over unless he significantly outperformed his strikeout line. He is taking on Matt Manning who looks a lot better than the last time he was up at the major league level. The Mariners are favored but that does not mean Kirby would be the pitcher to record the win. There are doubts about his workload that make this line too high.
Bobby Witt O 6.5fpt
KC @ CWS
Bobby Witt has had reverse splits in his first major league season. The pitcher he will take on, Lucas Giolito, also has reverse splits. Giolito has allowed 14 home runs and a 1.76WHIP to RHBs this season. The WHIP is important as walks would allow access to more potential points for Witt. Witt only has a 4.7% walk rate but his speed is the major thing to note here. He has 26 stolen bases on the year. Giolito is prone to giving up steals. Yasmani Grandal is on the IL but he was not having the best season in terms of poptime. Seby Zavala has a 1.96 sec poptime which is decent. However, a catcher cannot make up for a pitcher with a slow delivery. This is a great hitting spot for Witt, further enhanced by his speed.
Jesus Luzardo U 36.5fpt
MIA vs TB
This line opened at 38.5. It was going to be my first play, but the line has been bumped down to 36.5. I still have interest in the under though. Luzardo is a talented young pitcher. He gets a matchup that might seem positive but it really is not. The Rays numbers are skewed because they have dealt with injuries all season long. They recently welcomed back Manuel Margot and Harold Ramirez. This version of the Rays does not strikeout anywhere close to where they had been with the replacement players. Margot returned on 8/20 so this is a small sample size but the Rays have a 113 wRC+ and 19.2% K rate against LHPs since that date. Tampa will stack their lineup with all righties. Luzardo has allowed a 39.1% flyball rate and 42.7% hard hit rate to RHBs, significantly worse than vs LHBs. Furthermore, the Rays rank 1st in weighted curveball runs against the curveball, Luzardo’s primary pitch.
Just missed the cut: Crawford O 18.5fpt, Quantrill U 31.5fpt, STL/CIN YRFI, Gausman O 6k
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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