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MLB DFS Baseball PrizePicks Strategy Player Picks for 8/27/2022

Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.

Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…

PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…

Aug 22, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Drew Smyly (11) delivers against the St. Louis Cardinals during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Drew Smyly O 4.5Ks

CHC @ MIL

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 26.1% K rate against LHPs this season. If we look at a more recent time range starting from July 1, that K rate balloons up to a whopping league-leading 30.3%. This game will take place in American Family Field but that does not do them any favors to their K rate. It is still 30.1% at home. Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez, Kolten Wong are all lefties that get neutralized. Smyly has a 20.3% K rate this season but sports a chase rate ranked in the 82nd percentile. His most used pitch is the curveball. Besides Omar Narvaez, who is a lefty and should not start, every single Brewer has at least a 24.1% strikeout rate against the curve. The Brewers BvP numbers against Smyly are 6 for 37 with 10Ks. Smyly is getting at least 5Ks in this spot.

 

Dustin May O 6Ks

LAD @ MIA

Dustin May made his 2022 season debut last time out against this same Miami team. He only threw 71 pitches and still was able to K 9 Marlins. The Marlins sit at a 22.4% K rate against RHPs this season. It is actually the exact same rate since July 1 which is about league average. May is not an average pitcher though. He has terrific strikeout stuff. May will be able to throw more pitches this start. The Dodgers are pretty careful so 80 pitches is probably a fair amount. His pitch count line is set at 83.5 elsewhere. A 6 line gets us a push. I would not be surprised if his line shift to 7 by game time.

 

Jordan Montgomery U 32.5fpt

STL vs ATL

This line opened at 35.5 then bumped down to 33.5. It then went up for whatever reason to 34.5. Now, it is at 32.5. I still think this is too high. Since being traded to the Cardinals, Montgomery has been red hot. However, the 3 matchups have been excellent. This is going to be a very tough spot for Montgomery. Atlanta’s lineup is right-handed heavy. They do strikeout a lot but looking in the last month, the Braves only have a 16.3% K rate against LHPs. Montgomery has significant splits. His K rate this season is 33.3% vs LHBs and only 19.5% vs RHBs. There is a ton of power throughout this Atlanta lineup. Giving Montgomery the benefit of teh doubt, if he goes 6IP, 3ER, 6K, QS, that is still under at 31fpt.

 

Brandon Drury O 6.5fpt

SD @ KC

San Diego crushed Kris Bubic on Friday putting 13 runs up. Drury scored 5fpt in the 1st inning and ended the game 1-6. He gets another matchup against a below average lefty. Lynch relies on a fastball, changeup, and slider. Drury has a +11 run value against the slider and +9 against the changeup. On top of that, Drury has absolutely owned LHPs this season. Juan Soto was available to pinch hit on Friday signaling he could return Saturday. If Soto is back in the lineup, that is another potential base runner for Drury to come up to the plate with. If Soto remains out of the lineup, Drury will be able to bat higher in the order.

 

Wilmer Flores O 5.5fpt

SF @ MIN

The Giants pinch hit frequently. However, Flores has no pinch hit risk. He used to be a lefty masher but actually has reverse splits this season. Sonny Gray is a good pitcher. His most used pitch is the sinker. Gray too has reverse splits because the slider has not been a good pitch for him this season. The curveball has been but he uses that a lot more against LHBs. Flores rakes against sinkers. He has a +12 run value hitting .333 with a 41.5% hard hit rate. This game will be played at Target Field. There will be a nice bump to hitters due to the weather. Winds are projected to be blowing out at 13mph during the game.

 

Just missed the cut: Bobby Witt Jr. O 5fpt, Luis Arraez O 7fpt

 

Final MLB PrizePicks Thought

Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.

Now for the bonus… If you are new to PrizePicks, they will match your 1st deposit up to $100! You double your money and get a free month of a DFS Army VIP subscription too!

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