Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Jun 20, 2022; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan (18) throws a pitch in the first inning against the New York Yankees at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
Shane McClanahan O 6.5Ks
TB vs BAL
McClanahan has hit a bit of a bumpy road in his last two starts. The Guardians have some talented bats and do not strikeout. The Tigers are overall, a poor offense, but are close to league average against LHPs. Baltimore is one of this year’s surprise stories. They are playing very well but they were sellers at the trade deadline. Their leadoff hitter, Cedric Mullins hits lower in the order or sometimes is benched when the team takes on a lefty. Adley Rutschman is much better when facing a righty. The Orioles have a 25.2% strikeout right against LHPs this season, ranking 3rd most in the league. McClanahan’s K rate this season is actually higher against RHBs than LHBs so when a team tries to stack an entire lineup of righties, it does not matter. Due to 4 and 3 K totals his past two games, this line is low for this home matchup.
Triston McKenzie O 24.5fpt
CLE @ TOR
Toronto has underperformed this season. They simply are not the elite offense we all expected them to be. George Springer is currently out with an elbow injury. It seems that this line is set for McKenzie to take on the elite version of this Blue Jays offense that has just not showed up. McKenzie averages 33fpt this season. This line being that far off from his average just is incorrect. Toronto is not the best K matchup but McKenzie sports a 24.4% strikeout rate this season. On the other side, Mitch White will be starting. The Guardians are currently on a six game win streak. They should be able to put some runs up off of White. McKenzie goes deep into games. He will not need a quality start and a win to hit the over on this 24.5 line, but both of those are very obtainable.
Christian Walker O 1.5tb / Daulton Varsho O 1.5tb
ARI @ COL
The @ COL is all you need to know. These might not be the biggest names, but this ballpark is just that good. Arizona is the lucky team to tee off in Colorado this weekend. They will be taking on Jose Urena today. He has a 4.63 ERA but 6.02 xERA. He ranks in the bottom 5th percentile in xBA, xSLG, K%, and whiff %. The one concern for these total base lines are walks. Urena has an 11.9% walk rate. Against RHBs, Urena throws primarily a sinker and slider. Walker has a -3 run value against the sinker but does hold a much higher xBA at .300. Overall, his numbers indicate he has been rather unlucky this season. He is batting .213 but his xBA is .251. A trip to Colorado should help boost his hitting numbers. Daulton Varsho is a LHB. Urena throws a changeup but that is his worst pitch which explains his lefty struggles. Colorado used Lucas Gilbreath two games in a row leaving only long reliever, Austin Gomber as the lone available lefty. This reduces the pinch hit risk for all LHBs.
Brendan Rodgers O 1.5tb / CJ Cron O 1.5tb
COL vs ARI
This is not the best Coors matchup the Rockies could have against Zac Gallen. Gallen is a good pitcher but nobody is safe from Coors. That is why the odds on the over for hitters are always nice. Gallen throws his fastball nearly 50% of the time. This pitch ranks in the 90th percentile in spin. The problem is, a high velocity fastball with low spin rate is the optimal build for an effective Coors Field fastball. Gallen’s fastball velocity ranks in the 42nd percentile. Coors Field takes away pitch movement. Gallen’s secondary pitch is the curveball. This is the worst pitch type to throw at Coors because the ball will not break. Rodgers has been hitting higher in the order. Cron has reverse splits this season As long as the pitcher does not throw a slider, Cron is a great play at home. This game will be played in 95 degree weather.
Brandon Nimmo U 1.5h+bb
NYM vs PHI
Aaron Nola and Brandon Nimmo have faced off 47 times. It has resulted in 11 hits, 11 walks, and 14 strikeouts. Out of the 11 hits, only 2 have been XBHs. This 23.4% walk rate is unsustainable. Nola has improved his walk rate to only 3.6% this season. That is in the top 2% of the league. In addition, Nola ranks in the 78th percentile for xBA. He does a great job limiting both hits and walks and pitches better on the road. Nimmo’s walk rate this season has decreased from his career average. His walk rate is 9.1% which ranks in the 58th percentile. He is the leadoff hitter so he will get the most ABs on the team. However, with how these two players are playing this season, it favors the under. Jacob deGrom will be starting for the Mets. He should put New York in a position to win at home. This would take away the Mets’s chances of hitting in the bottom of the 9th.
Just missed the cut: Giolito U 40.5fpt, McKenzie O 91.5pt, Blackmon O 1.5tb
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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