Wow! I cannot believe that we are in July already! Almost halfway done with the MLB season already!
MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (9 Games)
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Jordan Lyles vs LAA
The Angels have been a bit better on offense lately, but I have some interest in Lyles here as he has been much better at home this season for the Orioles. In 6 home starts, Lyles has a 2.92 ERA and has yet to allow a HR in Baltimore. Camden Yards since moving the fence back has seen much less home runs this year than in the past. He is coming offa good start against the Twins where he tossed 6.1 innings and allowed just 1 run while striking out 7 hitters. LAA comes into this game with a 31.4% strikeout rate against RHP over the last 2 weeks with a batting average under .200. GPP
Gerrit Cole @ BOS
Tough matchup for the Yankees against Boston tonight and Cole has seen his struggles against the Red Sox in his Yankee career. Homeruns are always his problem too. He did face them in his first start of the season, but that was also way back in April. Over his career, he has struggled at Fenway, allowing 7 HR in just 32 innings. He has been getting K’s against Boston, but the matchup is tough here. I do like how he has been throwing lately for the Yanks since that horrible start against the Twins though. There is upside here, but he can also get lit up. Boston’s roster does have a 35% strikeout rate against him, but Devers and Martinez have touched him up for 6 HR combined. GPP
Spencer Strider vs STL
Strider is coming off a great outing against the Reds where he struck out 11 hitters in 6 innings. STL is striking out 22.3% to righties which isn’t awful. Outside of his struggles in the game against the Giants, he has been really good and has been going deeper into games too. Strider has only allowed 3 HR this season and he has 90 strikeouts in only 59.2 innings and hitters are hitting just .175 against him and both sides of the plate have lower than a .600 OPS. GPP
Dylan Cease vs DET
Phew, finally a pitcher that I like for cash games tonight. This matchup against the Tigers is a good one too and he has shown some great strikeout upside this season. He had 80 K’s in 50 innings at home this year and hitters are hitting just .186 against him aat home. The Tigers have a 23% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and Cease has the upside to strikeout 8+. He has not allowed more than 1 ER in 7 straight starts, just needs to keep the walks down, ALL FORMATS
Joe Musgrove vs SFG
This is actually a better matchup than most people are going to think with Musgrove. He is very expensive which makes it hard to make a solid lineup, but the Giants come into this game with a 23.5% strikeout rate and are hitting just .212 with an ISO of .138 over the last 2 weeks. He is coming off a solid 10 K outing against the Dodgers and has scored well all season. Musgrove has 13 QS out of his 14 starts on the season and is getting a strikeout per inning. ALL FORMATS
Logan Webb @ SDP
I do have some interest in Webb on the other side of this game here tonight. He has been pretty solid of late for the Giants with QS in 4 straight starts allowing fewer than 3 ER in 5 straight starts. The one time he faced SD this season, he tossed 8 innings, allowing just 1 ER with 7 strikeouts. There are a couple of guys I do worry about on this Padres roster, but if he can navigate Cronenworth and Machado I’m not too worried here and do like his upside. GPP
Tony Gonsolin vs CHC
Gonsolin just continues to win games for the Dodgers. He has 15 starts this year and is 10-0 with a 1.54 ERA with a miniscule 0.83 WHIP. He has been even better at home at Dodger Stadium too, pitching to a 0.88 ERA while allowing just 4 total ER in 41 innings and hitters are hitting just .124 against him at home. His price has come up, but it should for how well he’s been throwing. Gonsolin isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but can still get around a K per inning for the Dodgers. I do like the matchup against the Cubs here tonight too. ALL FORMATS
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Tony Gonsolin
- Dylan Cease
- Joe Musgrove
- Spencer Strider
- Logan Webb
- Gerrit Cole
- Jordan Lyles
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Colorado Rockies
- New York Mets
- Miami Marlins
- Atlanta Braves
DINGER OF THE DAY
Brendan Rodgers
Love this matchup for the Rockies tonight against Dallas Keuchel. They are a team that can really hit lefties and this is still a decent hitting environment. Rodgers has had some stretches this year where he’s been hitting HR in bunches,
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Featured Image:
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin (26) prepares to pitch in the first inning of the MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Los Angeles Dodgers in Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park on Tuesday, June 21, 2022.
Los Angeles Dodgers At Cincinnati Reds 63
