Wow! I cannot believe that we are in July already! Almost halfway done with the MLB season already!
MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (8 Games)
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Aaron Nola vs WSH
Washington is a team that hasn’t been striking out that much against RHP of late, but Aaron Nola has been really good and I see some upside here. Nola has actually struggled a little at home with the home-run ball, allowing 9 of his 12 HR at home this season. He still has over a strikeout per inning at home though and is limiting hitters to just a .191 batting average. If it wasn’t for the home runs allowed, Nola would have much better-looking surface numbers at home. The Nationals have 124 ABs against him in their career and are hitting just .193 with a 31.4% strikeout rate against him. Nola has surpassed 6+ innings in 7 straight starts as well. ALL FORMATS
Max Fried vs STL
A tougher matchup with the Cards here in this one tonight, but Fried has been super consistent for the Braves. His strikeout numbers have been iup and down, but he’s getting about a K per inning at home so far this season. With over 6 innings in 13 of his 16 starts this year, he always has a shot at the QS bonus on fanduel which helps. Over the last 2 weeks against LHP, STL has the 4th highest strikeout rate at 28.4%. They have shown a high power rate though with a .256 ISO, so Fried needs to keep the ball in the yard and keep the powerful righties from getting XBH. With the consistency of Fried and upside though, I do like him a good bit tonight for GPPs. GPP
Luis Severino @ PIT
Severino is a solid price here on both websites tonight and I like him a good amount in a good matchup with the Pirates. PIT comes into this game with a 23.7% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting just .219. They have showed a bit more power upside with over a .200 ISO in the last couple of weeks though. The Yanks lost last night which they really shouldn’t be losing games to the Pirates, but Severino has shown some good strikeout stuff now that he’s finally healthy too. He has allowed a .193 batting average against on the road this year so far with just over a K per inning. With giving up 11 HR, that’s a little bit concerning in just 78 innings. I do love this upside and price on him though. ALL FORMATS
Cristian Javier vs KCR
Javier has been a man on a mission of late for the Astros. He was apart of a combined no-hitter against the Yankees, then followed it up with another 7 inning, 14 strikeout performance allowing just 1 hit. ONE HIT. Javier has just been really good over his last 2 starts for the Astros and is in another good matchup tonight with the Royals. Kansas City has been striking out just 22% against RHP, which isn’t too high compared to some others, but they don’t have a ton of power either. With how Javier has looked lately, I really like him and his price in all formats in this matchup. ALL FORMATS
Josiah Gray @ PHI
Gray is a guy who has been up and down this season. He did make one start against the Phillies though and he tossed 6 scoreless innings striking out just 4 batters. Struggling in his last start against the Marlins, but before that he went 5 starts without allowing more than 2 ER. The problem with Gray, is he allows a bunch of hits, so that doesn’t bode well for DraftKings in this one since they dock for hits allowed, but on Fanduel, if he can manage a QS he could have a solid scoring outing. GPP FD
Merrill Kelly vs SFG
I don’t think many people are going to use Kelly here tonight against the Giants. He has had some struggles against bad teams of late, allowing 4 Er to the Tigers and 5 ER to the Reds, but has pitched well against COL and MIN. I do see some upside with Kelly here against the Giants though who are striking out 5th most against RHP in the league over the last 2 weeks at 25.3%. The Giants are also hitting just .207 with an ISO of only .148. If Kelly is able to keep the ball in the yard, he could have another good start tonight. GPP
Brayan Bello vs TBR
Strict GPP play on a guy making his MLB debut tonight against Tampa Bay. I love that he’s min priced on both sites too, which allows you to do a lot with your lineups. I do like him a lot as an SP2 on DraftKings too. The Rays come into this game with a 24.4% strikeout rate against RHP. In the minors this season he has been dominant, sporting a 2.33 ERA with only a 1.04 WHIP and he has a 114:33 K:BB ratio over just 85 innings. He has improved on his fastball velocity this year and has a plus changeup which he will need because his fastball is mostly straight. If he can include some 2-seamers in along with his good change and slider, he could tear apart this Rays lineup. ALL FORMATS as value
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Cristian Javier
- Luis Severino
- Aaron Nola
- Max Fried
- Brayan Bello
- Merrill Kelly
- Josiah Gray
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
- Texas Rangers
DINGER OF THE DAY
Freddie Freeman
Freeman has been up and down with this season with the Dodgers, but he has some good history against Jose Urena, going 13-31 with 4 doubles and 4 homeruns.
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Featured Image:
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin (26) prepares to pitch in the first inning of the MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Los Angeles Dodgers in Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park on Tuesday, June 21, 2022.
Los Angeles Dodgers At Cincinnati Reds 63
