Wow! I cannot believe that we are in July already! Almost halfway done with the MLB season already!
MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (10 Games)
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Corbin Burnes @ PIT
Burnes should be pretty popular here tonight on this smaller Friday slate than we are used to. PIT has been a bit better of late and their offense has actually been really good with an ISO of .272 against RHP in the last couple of weeks. The thing is, Burnes is going to shut down their hot stretch tonight. He’s an elite start and over his last 2 starts he has thrown 14.2 innings and struck out 19 hitters against 2 really good teams. Corbin Burnes has been amazing on the road this season too, allowing just 8 ER in 44 innings, while striking out 50 batters. I would say that he needs to get around Reynolds and he should have another fantastic start here tonight. ALL FORMATS
Jun 25, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) hands the ball to manager Craig Counsell during a pitching change in the eighth inning of the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Gerrit Cole @ CLE
This is a tough matchup for Cole and the Yanks after playing Houston yesterday and now having a tough 3 game series on the road against Cleveland. Cleveland is a team that comes into this game striking out the least amount of times against right-handed pitchers in the last 2 weeks at just 17.9%. Over Cole’s last 3 starts, he has thrown 6, 7.1, and 7 innings, striking out 7, 12, and 8 respectively. This Guardians roster only has 73 ABs against Cole in their careers and only have 11 hits off of him, and 5 of those hits come just from Jose Ramirez. Take out JoRam and they are 6-59 (.101 avg) with 27 K’s (45.7% K rate). If he can get around Ramirez, Cole should be able to have another good start here. Cole has been a little worse on the road this year, but is still 3-0 with 48 strikeouts in 36.2 innings. He did shut them down when he faced them earlier this year, throwing 6.2 innings and striking out 9. Love his upside here in a tough matchup. ALL FORMATS
Chris Bassitt vs TEX
Bassitt comes into this game having pitched better at home this season, throwing 51.1 innings and striking out 54 hitters while allowing a .216 batting average against. This is a decent matchup against the Rangers here, but they have been hitting a little better of late. Texas comes into this game striking out just 20.5% of the time against RHP and their hitting numbers have looked better too. Bassitt though is a guy who can slow them down on their little hot stretch. The Rangers roster only has 57 AB’s against him and have just 7 hits with a 35% strikeout rate. Bassitt is a little cheaper here than the two above too. ALL FORMATS
Cristian Javier vs LAA
Javier is coming off an amazing start against the Yankees where the team threw a no-hitter and he was responsible for 7 of those innings and he struck out 13 Yankees in the process. Javier has been really good for the Astros this season too. Pitching in Minute Maid has been something Javier loves this season as he is 3-2 in 5 starts with 7 total games pitched. He has 40 K’s in 32 innings and has allowed just a .168 batting average against. The Angels offense has power, but they also have been striking out a lot still against righties, with a 26.3% strikeout rate over the last 2 weeks against RHP, hitting just .228. I can see Javier having another great outing here tonight with 7+ strikeouts against the Angels. ALL FORMATS
Joe Ryan vs BAL
Joe Ryan has struggled a bit since his return from the IL. He did face some tough offenses against Seattle and Cleveland and his last time out against Colorado. The worry I have about him is he only was able to record 1 strikeout in his last start. Before getting on the IL, Ryan was throwing very well for the Twins. I do like this matchup against the Orioles though as they come into this game with a 25.9% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks which ranks 3rd highest in the MLB. He struggled in his last start against Baltimore, going just 4.2 innings while striking out 3 and allowing 2 ER. I do think that he could have a better outing this time around though. GPP
Tony Gonsolin vs SD
The Dodgers have owned the Padres over the last couple of years, winning 13 of the 14 games they have played. Gonsolin has been good for the Dodgers this season and has yet to allow more than 2 ER in any of his 14 starts this season. He’s been a very underrated pitcher and no one is giving him the recognition that he deserves. Gonsolin has been consistent as it gets. He does have the ability to throw 6 innings and he has been really good at limiting baserunners. Through 14 starts, he has just a 1.58 ERA and a WHIP of 0.85 with just under a strikeout per inning. GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Corbin Burnes
- Gerrit Cole
- Cristian Javier
- Chris Bassitt
- Tony Gonsolin
- Joe Ryan
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- New York Yankees
- Minnesota Twins
- Houston Astros
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Francisco Giants
DINGER OF THE DAY
Kyle Tucker
I like the upside for Tucker here against Lorenzen. The Astros have a good matchup here at home too. Lorenzen has allowed just 5 HR this season, but all 5 of them have come to left-handed hitters.
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Featured Image:
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin (26) prepares to pitch in the first inning of the MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Los Angeles Dodgers in Cincinnati at Great American Ball Park on Tuesday, June 21, 2022.
Los Angeles Dodgers At Cincinnati Reds 63
