This is the last weekend before the All-Star Break! Let’s go!
MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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Robbie Ray @ TEX
I was going back and forth on this play all morning here, but I decided to take the chance on Ray. He’s been much better lately for the Mariners, going 6 straight starts without allowing more than 1 ER and his strikeouts have been there recently. In those 6 starts, he has over 6 K’s in every one of them except his start against Boston. This Texas team doesn’t have the best numbers against him, though just 80 ABs they are hitting only .124. Despite their power surge of late, they come into this game with a 26.3% strikeout rate against LHP over the last 2 weeks. I like his upside in tournaments, but the way TEX has had power against LHP lately, I’m leaving him for GPPs. GPP
Yu Darvish vs ARI
After struggling to begin the season, Darvish has been a lot better of late. He has recorded a quality start in 5 of his last 6 starts and the one that he didn’t he still struck out 10 Dodgers over 6 innings. Darvish has a 25% strikeout rate at home, compared to just 19,7% on the road this season and isn’t allowing baserunners, as opponents are hitting just .158 with a wOBA of .214 against Darvish at home. Against Arizona this season, he has thrown 13 innings, allowing just 1 ER and striking out 8. I do wish those strikeout numbers were a bit higher, but in those 13 innings, he has allowed just 4 hits overall in the 2 starts. My one concern here is that the Diamondbacks aren’t striking out much against RHP over the last couple of weeks. LEAN GPP
Clayton Kershaw @ LAA
Very intriguing matchup for Kershaw here against the Angels. LAA could be without Trout again here tonight and they come into this game REALLY struggling against LHP. Over the last 2 weeks, they have a 31.3% strikeout rate while hitting just .222 and have an ISO of .049. Kershaw came out firing in his last start with 7.2 innings and striking out 10 Cubs. Now many of the Angels hitters have much history against him except Trout who has 20 ABs and only has 4 hits. I do like his upside here again with how bad the Angels are doing against lefties. ALL FORMATS
Brandon Woodruff @ SFG
Woodruff has turned it around for the Brewers after dealing with some time on the IL causing him to only make 12 starts this season. He’s been limited to just 60.2 innings so far on the season but does have 80 strikeouts. The Giants offense has been really struggling lately against good pitching too. In the last 2 weeks against RHP, they have a 25.3% strikeout rate while hitting just .188. Woodruff has a t least 8 K’s in each of his last 3 starts. If he can make it 6+ innings here he could have a big day. ALL FORMATS
Alek Manoah vs KCR
Last night for the Jays didn’t go as planned as they lost to a AAA team and their offense could not figure it out at the plate. I’m kind of disregarding much of KC’s stats from the last couple of weeks because their lineup is completely different than it would normally be. Manoah has been really good at home this year, allowing hitters to hit just .193 while going 5-1. I wish he had more strikeouts in his game, but we likely won’t see more than 7 from him tonight. What I do like is his ability to go 6+ innings as he has 14 quality starts in 17 starts on the season. I do like his safety and upside here against a weak KC lineup. ALL FORMATS
Hunter Greene @ STL
Always have some type of interest in Greene. When you have a guy with this electric stuff and the ability to rack up strikeouts in a hurry, he is in play for GPPs a lot. He threw well in his last start against the Rays, striking out 9 over 6 innings, but like usual, struggled with his command. His walks are up there and he allows a ton of home runs. Greene can struggle against righties more and that’s where a lot of the Cardinals power is. He did start against them on the road back in June and struck out 7 hitters over 5 innings while allowing just 1 earned run. I do like his K upside and if he is able to keep the ball in the yard, he could have a good start here. GPP
German Marquez vs PIT
Pitching in Coors is never fun and Marquez has really struggled at home this year, but I do like the matchup with the Pirates. They are striking out 27.4% of the time against RHP while hitting just .227. Marquez just faced Arizona and the Dodgers twice and had success in 2 of the 3 starts. He has been a little better lately, but will still have those games where he allows a ton of runs. I don’t trust him much, but I do like this matchup with PIT tonight enough to have some exposure in MME. GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Clayton Kershaw
- Alek Manoah
- Brandon Woodruff
- Robbie Ray
- Yu Darvish
- Hunter Greene
- German Marquez
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Featured Image:
Apr 13, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw (22) throws to the Minnesota Twins in the second inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
