Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/8:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shane McClanahan
- Charlie Morton
- Tyler Anderson
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Miami Marlins @ New York Mets (-165)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Normally I like to avoid an SP who is returning from the COVID list but Bassitt is different. He is very frustrated over the entire process as he said he has felt absolutely zero effects from his positive test. He gets a plus match-up while Lopez could actually struggle with some of the NYM lineup. There’s some decent BvP from the New York side of this one.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves (-260)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. A big time total for the Braves after they let us down last night. I will most likely end up overweight in comparison to the field. Morton gets a great match-up, as long as he’s able to contain Soto (who is 3 for 3 against him). The Braves have PLENTY of BvP in their favor for this one. My dinger call will probably be coming from the ATL side again tonight.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .089 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley, Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-130) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I want to be on the Phillies bats with their recent performances but I never bet against Wainwright when he gets to pitch at home. Arenado is rolling at the plate but Wheeler is just so damn good. Somebody is going to hit an HR in this game and while I think it’ll be Hoskins or Schwarber, I wouldn’t be shocked if it was Arenado.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-120) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am really torn in this spot as my first inclination is to side with the offenses. The issue is that the overall TOR lineup has been a bit cold and the majority of SEA’s lineup is pretty weak overall. Stripling keeps surprising me and Kirby has big time upside but he has struggled with RHBs so far at the MLB level. I feel like mini-stacks are the best route to take right now.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
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New York Yankees (-155) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
Yankees – Nestor Cortes
Red Sox – Connor Seabold
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Seabold has allowed 3 HRs in just 8.2 innings so far. I realize that rate will not stick for the season but when all have come by RHBs so far, it makes it a really bad spot for him tonight. Cortes started the season rolling but hasn’t been AS sharp lately. I have been waiting for the regression to begin so now might be a great time to attack him with BOS bats.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .252 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .122 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-220)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Anderson should be in a great spot to continue his run of impressive performances, especially if Contreras is out of the lineup. The Dodgers bats have been swinging the power stick and Betts is rolling at the plate right now. The Dodgers will make an obviously strong stack for everything tonight.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seiya Suzuki, Nelson Velazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .237 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox (-190)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We know that Giolito can give up HRs when he’s not right and while the Tigers aren’t a dangerous team, they haven’t been pushovers against Giolito. Skubal has been going through a rough stretch so it’s tough to not want to stack against him but the problem is that the White Sox offense has been pretty damn cold outside of Jose Abreu. Anderson has absolutely dominated Skubal.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Eric Haase, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Eloy Jimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles (-140)
Pitchers:
Angels – Reid Detmers
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Detmers hasn’t been good since his no-hitter so it’s tough to want to use him against a sneaky BAL squad. The Angels offense has been absolutely abysmal and they are striking out a TON this season. Wells has to be on our list of SPs tonight, even if we don’t think he’s all that strong of a long term guy. Mountcastle wouldn’t shock me if he managed multiple extra-base hits tonight.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .071 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Milwaukee Brewers (-220)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Ashby seems to let us down whenever we rely on him but I might have to go back to him with PIT having such a low total. Castillo has been rolling for PIT and I can see a mini-stack doing some damage. For the Brewers, the overall team ISO over the last week is really strong but it’s kind of been buoyed by some bench guys in spot starts, etc. I think they do hit Brubaker decently but it’s really hard to pinpoint exactly where it’s going to come from.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Diego Castillo, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Luis Urias, Kolten Wong
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays (-175) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. McClanahan has been so dominant this season and is really making me look like a genius. He takes on the light hitting CIN squad who has a team ISO fo just .096 over the last week. Castillo can dominate any team he faces so I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 2-0 game in this one.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Francisco Mejia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Senzel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .096 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals (-125)
Pitchers:
Guardians – Aaron Civale
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Cleveland has lost 4 straight and 6 of their last 7 so Singer gets them at a great time. He has definitely flashed some of the upside that was expected of him as a 1st round pick out of Florida. Civale isn’t an arm that should scare an offense but we are talking about KC, even though they have been a hit hotter than you’d expect lately. Benintendi just keeps hitting.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona D’Backs (-170)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gallen has been really strong against COL and I like the way he lines up in this match-up. He’s somebody that probably goes over looked but could be a difference maker for us. The D’Backs are showcasing some power over the last week but they aren’t an offense that I feel the need to fully stack. Ketel Marte looks to be in a great spot while Varsho and Rojas have been swinging it well.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last week.
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Houston Astros (-180) @ Oakland A’s
Pitchers:
Houston Astros – Jose Urquidy
A’s – Paul Blackburn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Astros are absolutely rolling at the plate right now so I look for that to continue, even against a solid Paul Blackburn. Urquidy isn’t somebody that I absolutely love but it’s impossible to ignore the match-up for him. He should provide us a pretty solid floor tonight with enough upside. I wouldn’t be shocked if Laureano gets him for an HR tonight.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Jake Meyers, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .291 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres (-160)
Pitchers:
Giants – Undecided
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We still have an undecided Giants team on who they are going to send out against SD. Snell looked great recently but I just have an impossible time trying to trust him. He does get the Giants at a very nice time with how they have struggled at the plate. I do really like the Ruf-Slater mini-stack and you could probably add in Flores for GPP purposes. The SD lineup has been pretty cold so we will have to see who SF runs out against them to locate any potential GPP plays.
SF 5-star plays: Darin Ruf
4-star plays: Austin Slater
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins (-120) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Twins – Sonny Gray
Rangers – Jon Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get the Gray vs Gray match-up that everybody has always wanted! I am kidding but we do get that cool match-up. Arraez just keeps hitting and hitting, now leading all of baseball with a .354 average. The Twins bats have been flashing the power over the last week even with Correa and Buxton going through some struggles. Texas hasn’t been terrible recently but I think that Sonny Gray could be just a little too much. The issue for the Twins is that their bullpen is horrendous right now.
MIN 5-star plays: Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Alex Kirilloff, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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