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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 7/05:
Jul 4, 2022; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. (13) runs the bases against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fourth inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Seattle Mariners (-) @ San Diego Padres (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll open up the day with an early game that you’ll have to play the early slate or all-day slate if you want exposure to it, but Logan Gilbert will take the mound for Seattle. He looks like a nice option in all formats with a 24.0% strikeout rate on the season to go along with his 2.66 ERA. The Padres aren’t really a lineup that scares me either as long as he can navigate around Machado. Mike Clevinger will get the start for San Diego and looks like a solid option as well. The Mariners offense has some young upside, but the key word there is young… which comes with strikeouts. Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Dylan Moore, and Cal Raleigh all have strikeout rates over 25% on the season. Not to mention, Clevinger finally started to look like himself last time out where he went six innings of one-hit ball against the Diamondbacks.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: I like Clevinger more than anything in this Mariners lineup, but on a showdown, you’ll have to find some one-off pieces.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Same deal here, I like Gilbert more than the bats… it’s a showdown slate where I’m going to jam both pitchers on DraftKings and finding some creative lineups on FanDuel.
New York Mets (-) @ Cincinnati Reds (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Max Scherzer will get the start for the Mets as they stay in Great American Smallpark. This is his first start since May 18th when he went on the IL with that oblique injury. I would expect him to have a pretty firm pitch count limit in this one, so probably not a guy I want to force in there. That being said, on a short early slate, he does make sense against a bad Reds lineup with his 30.6% strikeout rate on the year. Nick Lodolo will make the start for the Reds and is another guy coming off of a lengthy IL stay. I like the Mets offense quite a bit here, just the same as I did yesterday. They can put up runs in bunches and it’s a huge ballpark boost for them.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte, Pete Alonso, Franciso Lindor
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, JD Davis, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: The Mets look like a great stack again here.
CIN 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Brandon Drury, Jonathan India, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Scherzer won’t go deep into this game, but he’s enough to keep me off of a full Reds stack.
Los Angeles Angels (-) @ Miami Marlins (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Angels will send Noah Syndergaard to the mound to face the Marlins in a really nice pitchers’ park. Syndergaard is coming off of a great start against the White Sox and will look solid again here, especially at this price tag. He has just a 17.3% strikeout rate on the season, but the Marlins can help him out with a 23.5% strikeout rate as a lineup, on a short slate, he makes a lot of sense. Sandy Alcantara will start for the Marlins and looks like the top pitcher on the slate. He has a 1.95 ERA on the season to go along with a 21.9% strikeout rate, but the thing with him is we know he’s going to go deep into the game, which is something we don’t get with the rest of these early slate pitchers.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Alcantara is my favorite pitcher on the early slate, but Trout and Ohtani are matchup-proof as always.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jon Berti, Garrett Cooper, Jesus Aguilar, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: If Syndergaard starts getting ownership, I think the Marlins make sense as a leverage stack.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
New York Yankees (-) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Onto the main slate where Jameson Taillon will head into a nice ballpark boost in Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates. Taillon has cooled off a bit as of late but still has at least 30 FanDuel points in two of his last three and gets a revenge game against his old squad here. We don’t quite have the spread in this one, but I would imagine he comes in as a heavy favorite as well. The Pirates will send Jose Quintana to the mound and just won’t be a guy that I get to here. The Yankees feast off of weak lefties like him, look for Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Josh Donaldson to be licking their chops at the plate.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo
GPP Note: I never love stacking in this ballpark, but the Yankees set up pretty well here.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Just one-offs from the Pirates for me.
Washington Nationals (-) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Nats will send Paolo Espino to the mound in a tougher matchup against this Phillies team. I don’t see Espino making my pitching pool on this slate, yes he has a 2.80 ERA but he isn’t exactly great for DFS purposes due to a lower strikeout rate and the ability to give up the big inning. Christopher Sanchez will get the ball for the Phillies after being called up with Ranger Suarez going on the IL. He should be stretched out after starting the majority of his games in AAA. That said, I don’t see a reason to get to him on this slate, there are plenty of better options.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Lane Thomas, Josh Bell, Luis Garcia
GPP Note: I like the Nats as more of a mini-stack team, I just don’t love the bottom of the lineup all that much.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Darick Hall
GPP Note: The Phillies look pretty solid here as a full-stack option.
Texas Rangers (-) @ Baltimore Orioles (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Spencer Howard will take the mound for the Rangers here in a solid-ish matchup against the Orioles. Baltimore has been kind of pesky as of late but I do like the ballpark for pitching, as Baltimore is bottom fine in runs this season. All that said, Howard has a 12.15 ERA on the season and won’t make my pitching pool here either. Austin Voth will start for the Orioles and will be another guy we can kind of jump over. Although both of these offenses do look solid if you can look over the negative park factor.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Nathaniel Lowe
GPP Note: As I mentioned, if you can look past the ballpark, the Rangers look solid here.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini, Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: I like the Texas side slightly more, but this O’s team has been solid as of late.
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Cleveland Guardians (-) @ Detroit Tigers (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Guardians will send Cal Quantrill to the hill in a nice matchup with the Tigers on the road. Quantrill has actually been serviceable to start the season and threw eight innings last time out against the Twins. The only thing that stinks is his strikeout rate of 14.6%… that just won’t cut it for my pitching pool where I like to get those high upside guys which he really isn’t regardless of the matchup. Drew Hutchison will start for Detroit and is yet another pitcher that I don’t really want a piece of here, he just hasn’t shown the upside (or floor for that matter) and this Guardians team is sneaky when they can get going.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Franmil Reys, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: The Guardians could be sneaky here, I like the lineup with Reyes and Naylor back in there.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Riley Greene, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Quantrill has been good enough for me to avoid stacking this Tigers team.
Tampa Bay Rays (-) @ Boston Red Sox (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Jeffrey Springs will start for the Rays in a tough spot against the Red Sox in Fenway. Springs has been really good this season but I just hate the matchup, if you think he can overcome it then I have no issue getting to him, but more of a tournament option than anything for me. Boston will send Nick Pivetta to the mound against a red-hot Rays offense. Pivetta has also been good however with at least 18.4 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. He’s the highest-priced pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in what is turning out to be a pretty weak pitching slate.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes, Wander Franco
GPP Note: The Rays offense cooled down yesterday which makes me feel a bit better about Pivetta, but they’re in play as a leverage mini-stack option at the very least.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Although Springs has been good this season, it’s hard for me to completely overlook this Red Sox lineup.
St. Louis Cardinals (-) @ Atlanta Braves (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Andre Pallante will start for the Cardinals in a really tough matchup with a hot-hitting Braves offense. Pallante has been fine this season but I just don’t see a reason for him to make our pitching pool tonight… and I know this is starting to be a trend, I swear (maybe?) there will be pitchers we can roster tonight. Ian Anderson will start on the other side of this one and is coming off of a terrible start in Philly, which is a continuation of what he has shown this season. He is due for some positive regression, however, as his xERA is about 1.20 points below where it is right now, I just don’t love the matchup against this Cardinals lineup. He’ll be more of a tournament option than anything for me.
STL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: If you think Anderson’s struggles continue then this Cardinals stack will look like a good one here.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Michael Harris
GPP Note: The Braves look like a top stacking option on this slate.
Kansas City Royals (-) @ Houston Astros (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Zack Greinke will get a start against his old team in the Astors here and has actually been pretty solid as of late with at least 17.9 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That being said, his strikeout rate is still extremely low and the matchup stinks, so yet another pitcher that I don’t see myself getting a ton of. We might have some luck on the other side of this game however with Luis Garcia getting the ball for Houston. This Royals offense isn’t anything to be afraid of and Garcia hast at least 23 DraftKings points in two of his last three, he’s a guy that I’ll have a good amount of exposure to on this slate considering some of the pitching options we’ve already gone through.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: So far, Garcia is my favorite pitcher on the slate.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: I don’t trust Greinke to continue his good form, the Astros look like a nice stack in all formats.
Chicago Cubs (-) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Kyle Hendricks will get the start for the Cubs in this one as they head back into Milwaukee. Hendricks has been pretty good as of late with at least 23.3 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and I do like his price tag much more on DraftKings at $7.6k than I do on FanDuel at $9.6k. He’s struggled against the Brewers this season with a 6.14 ERA, but again, I have no issue with him at that DraftKings price tag considering our other pitching options on this slate. Jason Alexander will start for the Brewers and probably won’t be a guy I get to in this one, he just doesn’t have the strikeout rate that I’m looking for when making my pitcher pool.
CHC 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Seiya Suzuki, Patrick Wisdom, Ian Happ
GPP Note: More of a mini-stack team than anything even though I don’t love Alexander as a pitching option.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Willy Adames, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: There are a few of these Brewers hitters that have hit Hendricks well in his career, but if you think Hendricks keeps it rolling this Brewers team would be more of a mini-stack offense as well.
Minnesota Twins (-) @ Chicago White Sox (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Twins will send Chris Archer to the mound against this White Sox offense. Archer is another guy that has been a solid enough real-life pitcher, but not a guy that I would be all that thrilled about to roster in DFS. Michael Kopech will start for the Sox and has really cooled down as of late. We’ve seen some big upside from him at points throughout the season and he has a 23.2% strikeout rate on the year, so I have no issue taking a flyer on him on this slate in all formats.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa
GPP Note: I’ll probably have more Kopech here than anyone on the Twins.
CHW 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Andrew Vaughn, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Even though I don’t want a whole lot of Archer, I still don’t think I want to full-stack this White Sox team.
San Francisco Giants (-) @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Alex Wood will get the start on the road for the Giants in this one. He’s been pretty volatile this season but bounced back nicely last time out and gets a good matchup against a weak offense here. He has a 22.5% strikeout rate on the year and is a guy I can see myself getting some exposure to on this slate. Tyler Gilbert will take the mound for Arizona and hasn’t pitched in the big leagues in about a month. I don’t think we need to force it with him here against a pesky Giants offense.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Joc Pederson, Wilmer Flores, Brandon Belt
GPP Note: I like a Giants stack, but I don’t love them.
ARI 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker
GPP Note: I’ll probably have more exposure to Wood than anyone from the Dbacks due to the pitching on this slate.
Toronto Blue Jays (-) @ Oakland Athletics (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Jays will send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound in this one in a great matchup against the A’s. I was all over Alek Manoah last night and it ended up backfiring but I have no issue going right back to the well here with Kikuchi. He’s coming off of a great start against the Rays and has a sneaky good 26.3% strikeout rate on the season, he’s a great option in all formats at his price tag. Adrian Martinez will start for the A’s and will be a pass from me against this Jays offense even in a pitchers’ park.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Alejandro Kirk, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: I don’t love stacking in this ballpark, but you can make a strong case for the Jays here.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: I’m going to have a bunch of Kikuchi here.
Colorado Rockies (-) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll round out this massive slate with German Marquez on the road in Los Angeles in a tough matchup with the Dodgers. He’s coming off of a rough start in this matchup last time out, but that one was in Coors so he may have some better luck in this one. He has been pretty solid as of late with at least 20.1 DraftKings points in three of his last five and all three of those games were in Coors. I still don’t think he’ll make my pitching pool tonight, but you can at least make an argument for him in tournaments. Mitch White will start for the Dodgers in a really nice matchup with the Rockies away from Coors. He got up to 80 pitches last time out and I think is a serviceable option here in this one. He has a 22.8% strikeout rate on the year which is more than enough at this price tag.
COL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Kris Bryant, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: I don’t love stacking the Rockies on the road.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Justin Turner
GPP Note: The Dodgers never get a ton of love when they’re at home, but I have no issue with a full-stack against Marquez.
