Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/4:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Carlos Rodon
- Alek Manoah
- Zach Plesac
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Miami Marlins (-115) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Nationals lost Soto on Sunday as he’s expected to undergo an MRI. Despite having a 9 total at open, I don’t really want to fully stack either side. There are going to be a few mini-stacks that intrigue me but right now I lean towards this game going under the total.
MIA 5-star plays: Miguel Rojas
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Nelson Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals @ Atlanta Braves (-170)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I definitely believe we will see a few HRs hit in Atlanta on Monday. Wright has been pretty good but the Cardinals bats can do plenty of damage to him from the right side. Hudson allows too much contact for my liking which means ATL should end up fairly popular with a strong IRT.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Juan Yepez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .281 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Boston Red Sox (-125)
Pitchers:
Rays – Jalen Beeks
Red Sox – Austin Davis
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Going to be tough to ignore the total in this one. Beeks is an opener but he’s pitching on normal starters rest. The last game he opened was a true bullpen game with no pitcher throwing more than 2 innings. On the BOS side, we are going to see a bullpen game as well.
TB 5-star plays: Wander Franco
4-star plays: Isaac Paredes, Harold Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Jarren Duren
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-292)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This match-up is really intriguing to me. Urias is definitely a better pitcher than Freeland is but when looking at BvP histories, the Rockies have hit him far better than the Dodgers have hit Freeland. Colorado just did some damage to ARI but that was at home and they are coming off of a 6 game home stand. Generally, we like to avoid teams coming out of Coors for a day or two but I love the Rockies against LHPs. The Dodgers are getting healthy and it’s only a matter of time before Betts is clicking at the top.
COL 5-star plays: Brendan Rodgers
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Kris Bryant
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Will Smith, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (-130)
Pitchers:
Twins – Dylan Bundy
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The White Sox are traveling from the West Coast but thankfully for them, this is a night game. This one feels similar to the STL-ATL match-up as I can see a bunch of runs on the scoreboard at the end. Cueto shouldn’t be having the success he has had this season and we know the MIN offense can explode at any minute. Bundy did shut down the White Sox across 5 innings earlier this season but I don’t think he lines up well here.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .209 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .106 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Baltimore Orioles (-115)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I think that Dunning is slightly better than he has been while Kremer is worse than he has been. With that being said, I don’t necessarily think that is going to start correcting itself here. Kremer is throwing exceptionally and he’s done a great job against LHBs. I like mini-stacks of this game and BOTH SPs at first glance.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mitch Garver, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
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Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers (-155)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Justin Steele
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I envision plenty of fireworks in Milwaukee for this match-up. Both teams are coming in swinging the bats pretty well. Both SPs were surprising for a stretch but I think they give up some runs. The Cubs’ offense has quietly been above average much of the season so far.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .301 over the last week.
New York Mets (-165) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Reds – Hunter Greene
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Both of these offenses are coming in somewhat cool but I think the ball flies in Cincinnati for this one. We know the extreme HR problem that Greene has so I am going to bank on the Mets hitting 2+ HRs against him. Walker has turned things around some but the Reds still have a decent IRT for this one.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joey Votto, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians (-140) @ Detroit Tigers – Game 1
Pitchers:
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Tigers – Garrett Hill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Hill is a very interesting, under-the-radar, right-handed pitcher. He wasn’t a high draft pick but he’s been doing great work in the minors. He has allowed just 1 run in his last 14 innings to go with 17 Ks. Hill is an extreme fly-ball pitcher so there’s always HR risk. Plesac should be really popular as the Tigers lineup is pretty damn weak overall.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians @ Detroit Tigers – Game 2
Pitchers:
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Tigers – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .114 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene, Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
San Francisco Giants (-190) @ Arizona D’Backs
Pitchers:
Giants – Carlos Rodon
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Rodon is in a MASSIVE spot with Arizona coming out of a series in Colorado. He matches up extremely well with this ARI squad. I could see either Luplow or Walker getting to him for an HR but I would expect it to be a solo shot. A few of the Giants have solid BvP against Bumgarner but they have been struggling over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Austin Slater
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Darin Ruf
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jordan Luplow or Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-240) @ Oakland A’s
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
A’s – Cole Irvin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I will be honest and say you should be trying to jam Rodon-Manoah into your builds on DK and hopefully you can find enough offense to go with. Manoah is in a strong spot but he might not have the same K upside that Rodon offers us. I know that Irvin has actually been good overall but I want the Blue Jays bats.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Alejandro Kirk
4-star plays: Santiago Espinal, Vlad Guerrero Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres (-178)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Padres – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Manaea is an arm that has impressive upside but he struggles with consistency. I actually think it’s a great match-up for him but I could see him giving up a couple of HRs. Flexen is definitely capable of doing great work but I think the Padres offense could be a sneaky stack. They have hit Flexen hard, in a small sample.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez, Justin Upton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros (-235)
Pitchers:
Royals – Jonathan Heasley
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We should see HOU as a popular stack option. They have been destroying the baseball and Heasley isn’t an arm that I would expect to shut them down. I am not sure what kind of length Odorizzi will give so we need to pay attention to any pitch count announcements.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .233 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Mets
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Pete Alonso, Mets
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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