Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/3:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Brandon Woodruff
- Framber Valdez
- Frankie Montas
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Miami Marlins (-135) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. On the surface, Pablo Lopez should be a strong option for us today. The concern that I have is that a handful of the WSH bats have warmed up AND have had success against him. The Marlins lineup can be frustrating so I may just skip them in my builds.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brian Anderson, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Yadiel Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers (-170) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Brewers lineup has been rolling against the Pirates and that means Woodruff is in an excellent spot to pick up the W today. I am not sure if Thompson will open or if he will start in a traditional sense. The line in this game has moved to -205 for MIL since I started putting this article together.
MIL 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen, Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Luis Urias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .295 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Sunday night game should be a good one between these two SPs. I know that there has been a decent amount of offense so far but I could see both guys putting up strong performances. The Phillies have some decent BvP against Wainwright.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .220 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Odubel Herrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .223 over the last week.
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays (-135)
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane Baz
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am really torn on this one as I keep stacking against Stripling, only to be disappointed. I am a huge fan of Baz but I’m also a DFS fan of the Blue Jays. My initial inclination is to be on the pitching side of this game more than the offensive side.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isaac Paredes, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .093 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .206 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-190)
Pitchers:
Padres – Mackenzie Gore
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I love this pitching match-up. Kershaw still gets it done which is great to watch and now Gore is having success at the MLB level after being the top LHP prospect in baseball just a couple of seasons ago. He does get a tough spot as the Dodgers’ bats have picked it up lately and against LHPs.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .101 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Justin Turner
4-star plays: Will Smith, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ San Francisco Giants (-115)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Giants – Bullpen Game potentially
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I have mentioned it before but I hate bullpen games. They can really mess with lineups for DFS purposes. I don’t want to stack the White Sox but Abreu has gotten really hot over the last week. Giolito has big-time K upside but he’s also a big threat to give up multiple HRs.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ New York Mets (-140)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. A couple of pitchers that I have been stacking against taking on a couple of offenses that I have been higher on than the field in GPPs. I guess when I look at it like that, I want to stack both offenses. My initial look didn’t uncover much for either offense but a lot of times my decisions are based purely on the SPs in a match-up.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox (-125) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Connor Seabold
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I wouldn’t be shocked if this game total ends up pushing 9.5 with the pitchers on the mound. I know that Keegan has been solid but he can have some issues with RHBs and Boston has a few. When you add in the LHBs of BOS that have been rolling, you get a really dangerous lineup. The Cubs lineup is a sneaky stack today.
BOS 5-star plays: Jarren Duran
4-star plays: Alex Verdugo, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: Christoper Morel
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves (-160) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Morton should have a route to a strong game but he hasn’t been consistent by any means. Castillo is capable of being dominant at any point but I am on the ATL side against them and they should be in my top 5 when all is said and done in terms of stacks.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr.
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .202 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Drury, Joey Votto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .121 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-165) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Yankees are in a great spot for power but the problem is that the park has limited power this season. McKenzie can give up a LOT of HRs in a short period of time. Montgomery should be a solid option but he’s never overly spectacular to use.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .182 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .090 over the last week.
Arizona D’Backs (-120) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. Let’s keep the offense coming in Coors today. I think this is the best pitching match-up of this series but the bats are performing too well for me to want to jump on either pitcher, outside of maybe a dart throw lineup. Ketel Marte and Blackmon should be two of my highest-owned bats.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: David Peralta, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
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Oakland A’s @ Seattle Mariners (-145)
Pitchers:
A’s – Frankie Montas
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. The lowest total on the day so both SPs are going to be great plays. Laureano has hit Ray really well so I will focus on using him in my GPP builds as a way to be a little different. I know the Mariners have started to have their suspension appeals handled so we need to pay attention to the lineup.
OAK 5-star plays: Ramon Laureano
4-star plays: Sheldon Neuse
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Minnesota Twins (-170)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Twins – Devin Smeltzer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I want to use the Minnesota right-handed power against Wells. Smeltzer is an arm that I always expect to get hit around and then he never does. I do think the Orioles are an interesting stack option but they aren’t a team that I am in a hurry to get full stacks of.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Jose Miranda
GPP Note: Team ISO of .195 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers (-130)
Pitchers:
Royals – Brady Singer
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We get one of my favorite young pitchers in Skubal taking on a weak offense. That’s going to be tough for me to not want to go nearly all-in on today. Singer gets a plus match-up in his own right today. I don’t see much of a reason to get any bats from this game but there are a few worth considering as one-offs.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Andrew Benintendi, Michael Taylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harold Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros (-225)
Pitchers:
Angels – Jose Suarez
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Angels continue to struggle overall while striking out a TON right now. Valdez lines up in a great spot, even with the power of the top of the LAA lineup. The Astros are going to be one of my favorite teams on this slate as I expect them to do a ton of damage against Suarez.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Houston Astros
- Atlanta Braves
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jose Altuve, Houston
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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