Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 7/01:
Jun 25, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Corbin Burnes (39) hands the ball to manager Craig Counsell during a pitching change in the eighth inning of the game against the Toronto Blue Jays at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Milwaukee Brewers (-205) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (+172)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll open up the slate as Corbin Burnes heads into Pittsburgh in a great matchup against this Pirates offense. The Pirates had a nice night offensively last night and are swinging the bats better as of late, but Burnes stands out as a top pitcher on the slate. He has a 32.4% strikeout rate on the season and has massive win equity in this one… he might just be my favorite pitching option on the slate if salary isn’t a thing. The Pirates will send Roansy Contreras to the mound who has been pretty solid as of late. He really struggled with command last time out in walking five batters but I don’t think he’s the worst option here considering his price tag in a big ballpark.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez, Willy Adames
GPP Note: I don’t love stacking in this ballpark, but the Brewers have looked better at the plate as of late.
PIT 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz
GPP Note: Just one-offs if you want to home run hunt, I’m not going to actively target hitters against Burnes.
Kansas City Royals (-) @ Detroit Tigers (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
This game looks like it’s going to have a pretty good chance of some rain at the start of it, so make sure to watch the Weather Station for updates on delays and postponements before you lock in those lineups. Brad Keller will get the start for the Royals in a nice matchup with the Tigers on the road. He came crashing down to Earth last time out against the Athletics, but I suppose you could make a case for him as a cheap SP2 if you need to get to this price range, he does have some upside. Michael Pineda will start for Detroit and also gets a nice matchup, this Royals team does not scare me in the slightest although they do have some nice young talent. Pineda hasn’t pitched in about a month and a half, so we can safely assume a pretty strict pitch count and innings limit here, we can take him out of our pitching pool.
KCR 5-star plays: Whit Merrifield
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr., Hunter Dozier
GPP Note: I like the Royals more as a mini-stack team here.
DET 5-star plays: Javier Baez
4-star plays: Riley Greene, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Same deal with the Tigers, more of a mini-stack team due to how weak the bottom of the lineup is.
New York Yankees (-208) @ Cleveland Guardians (+175)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
This is another game where we will really want to watch the Weather Station especially since there’s at least one pitching option here that will draw a good amount of interest in Gerrit Cole. Cole is right there with Burnes as the top option on the slate in terms of spend-up guys. Similar to Burnes, the win equity is huge and he’s right there with him with a 31.8% strikeout rate. He also has at least 26.2 DraftKings points in four of his last five games to make things look even better. Aaron Civale will start for the Guardians in a really tough matchup against this Yankees team that is hitting home runs like they’re going out of style. He won’t be a guy I have an interest in and I’ll likely get some exposure to some Yankees stacks as well.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: I think the Yankees are in play as a full-stack, as usual against a guy with a 7.00+ ERA.
CLE 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Just one-offs if you want to home run hunt.
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Texas Rangers (+170) @ New York Mets (-203)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Glenn Otto will get the start for the Rangers here against a Mets team that is top five in scoring on the season. I don’t see a reason to get to Otto here, especially off of a bad outing against the Nationals where he gave up six earned runs. The Mets will send Chris Bassitt to the mound in a fairly decent matchup at home. Bassitt has at least 37 FanDuel poitns in five of his last six games and the Rangers are striking out at a 22.8% clip on the season giving Bassitt some nice upside here.
TEX 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: I’ll probably end up having more interest in Bassitt than anything here.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte, Franciso Lindor
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo
GPP Note: I like the Mets stack a good amount here with an implied run total over five.
Baltimore Orioles (+183) @ Minnesota Twins (-221)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Spenser Watkins will get the start for Baltimore in this one and won’t be a guy I look to get to even after a good start last time out against the White Sox. His 5.14 ERA on the season is bad but even worse is his xERA of 6.47… so there is still some regression coming and this Twins team has some nice firepower. The Twins will send Joe Ryan to the mound and will be a guy I have some interest in at this price tag as an SP2 or a tournament guy on FanDuel. He has a 21.8% strikeout rate on the season and this O’s offense is very volatile.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Adley Rutschman
GPP Note: I’ll like Ryan more than anything here.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Alex Kiriloff
GPP Note: The Twins look like a great stack in this one.
Los Angeles Angels (+141) @ Houston Astros (-166)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Michael Lorenzen will start for the Angels in a tougher matchup with the Astros. He’s cooled off a bit since the start of the season, but I’m just not all that interested in starting pitchers against this Houston lineup, so I’ll look elsewhere on this slate. Houston will send Cristian Javier to the mound who is coming off of a combined no-hitter last time out and a massive fantasy outing with 45.2 DraftKings points on 13 strikeouts. I have no issue riding the heater he’s on here as an SP1. I don’t LOVE the matchup, but he’s still a nice option.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Taylor Ward
GPP Note: If I were to mini-stack this team it would cost a pretty penny with it being the top of this lineup which kind of gets me off of them as a whole outside of one-offs.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman
GPP Note: I would have no issue going to the Astros in this one.
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Arizona Diamondbacks (+106) @ Colorado Rockies (-126)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Onto Coors Field we go where Merrill Kelly will take the mound for Arizona. Kelly had a big game against the Rockies last time out where he almost threw a complete game but went 8.2 innings… that said, that was at home in Arizona, things change when you get into that thin Colorado air. I don’t see a reason to get cute and consider Kelly as part of our pitching pool. Senzatela will start for the Rockies and will be a hard no for me here… again, I just don’t see the need to try and get cute with low-upside guys in Coors.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker
4-star plays: Alek Thomas, Daulton Varsho
GPP Note: No issue stacking Arizona against Senzatela in Coors.
COL 5-star plays: Connor Joe, CJ Cron
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: The Rockies will look great here as well.
San Diego Padres (+157) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-187)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Blake Snell will start for the Padres in this one in a tougher matchup with the Dodgers. He hasn’t exactly been all that great either with eight earned runs over his past two games. He still has a 24.4% strikeout rate on the season, but I think I’ll just wait until he’s in better form before I’m willing to target him against a good offense. The Dodgers will send Tony Gonsolin to the mound and he’s been a guy that has been really good to start the season with a 1.58 ERA and a 24.5% strikeout rate, I would have no issue going right back to the well with him here.
SDP 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Gonsolin than anything here.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Will Smith, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner
GPP Note: I like attacking Snell with this Dodgers lineup.
Oakland Athletics (+177) @ Seattle Mariners (-211)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
James Kaprielian will take the mound for the A’s in this one and continues to have a heavy regression year after a good season last year. The strikeout rate isn’t really there and the ERA seems to be pretty accurate with his xERA being right around that 5.88 actual ERA mark. He won’t be a guy that I get to on this slate even at a cheap price tag. Marco Gonzales will start for the Mariners in a really nice matchup with the A’s, I just hate rostering Gonzales due to the low 13.5% strikeout rate but he rarely gets beat up… so I suppose we could do worse in this price range.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Just one-offs here, I don’t love stacking against Gonzales, especially with a bad offense.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: The Mariners feel like more of a mini-stack team.
Chicago White Sox (+130) @ San Francisco Giants (-154)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll round out the slate with Lance Lynn heading into San Franciso to face this Giants offense. Lynn has bounced back nicely over his last two starts with at least 15.6 DraftKings points in both games and looks like a solid option in this price range as an SP2 option on DraftKings. I don’t hate taking a flyer on him in tournaments on one-pitcher sites as well, the pitch limit is clearly gone as he threw 109 pitches last time out. The Giants will send Alex Cobb to the mound and probably just isn’t a guy I want to get to here, he hasn’t been great this season and I do like this White Sox lineup… just hate the ballpark.
CHW 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: GPP only stack due to the ballpark, but the matchup sets up nicely.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: I actually think I’ll like Lynn more than anything on the Giants.
