Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/17:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shane Bieber
- Spencer Strider
- Dylan Cease
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Philadelphia Phillies (-155) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Nola is in an absolutely dominant and smash shot. The Marlins lineup is really struggling right now. Rogers can be dominant or he can get smacked around by the power of the Phillies. The nice thing for him is that a chunk of the PHI main lineup is left-handed.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .088 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .060 over the last week.
New York Mets (-155) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Mets – David Peterson
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Rundown:
We are waiting on the game total. It looks like the wind is very slightly blowing in at Wrigley. Peterson looks like a strong GPP play with his K upside and a Cubs lineup that is pretty weak. I like the Mets a bit but Sampson can actually be decent. I think mini-stacks are the way to attack this game.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-170)
Pitchers:
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Matz will be making his return from the IL in this one and could be a sneaky play if it comes out that he won’t face much for restrictions. There are a couple of bats for the Reds that have had success against Matz but we aren’t running out to jam in Reds stacks.
CIN 5-star plays: Brandon Drury
4-star plays: Jonathan India, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays (-160)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Rays – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This game has the feel of a 4-2 type game and that’s a game that we aren’t excited to attack. I do think that both SPs are very much in play and I think that Kluber ends up a mid-tier type play but he’s not somebody I would trust as a strong cash play.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Lowe, Francisco Mejia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians (-235)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tyler Alexander
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Bieber is going to be pretty popular getting to take on the weak Tigers lineup, at home. I believe the Tigers will use a modified opener/bullpen game. The CLE stack is kind of intriguing to me because I think a majority of the DET bullpen is on the weaker side, especially guys that I think will end up on the mound in the early innings.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .075 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .125 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Twins – Chris Archer
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Archer returns from an IL stint while Cease has a chance to showcase himself after being snubbed from the All-Star game. As a Twins fan, it is tough for me to go this route but I really think that Cease is a great GPP play. He does rack up high pitch counts early with walks and always looking for Ks.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Luis Arraez
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays (-345)
Pitchers:
Royals – Kris Bubic
Blue Jays – Jose Berrios
Rundown:
This game opened with a total of 9. Berrios should be in a great spot but it kind of feels like a little trap spot for him. I know the Royals’ lineup is rather weak overall but he is somebody that I really think struggles with focus and motivation. The signs all point to a massive game from him and his offense as well.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan O’Hearn, Nicky Lopez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Spencer Strider
Nationals – Josh Rogers
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. The Nationals haven’t announced an official starter yet but most places are speculating it will be Rogers. The Braves bats are going to find their way to the top for me and a lot of others in the industry. Strider draws a great match-up but one thing that worries me is the patience of a few of the Nats bats. He throws a lot of pitches and walks come with his high K rates.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Adam Duvall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants (-178)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Jason Alexander
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Webb at home in 2021 was automatic and while he hasn’t been the exact same in 2022, I do think he’s going to be a strong play. The Milwaukee lineup just isn’t clicking right now. Alexander allows a ton of contact and LHBs can definitely get to him early and often.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Brandon Belt
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater
GPP Note: Team ISO of .239 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-205)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Chris Sale
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. There is plenty of BvP in this game, with the most eye-popping line coming from Devers. I was shocked to see the Yankees as such strong favorites. I think if this exact match-up was in late September we’d be looking at a game that I think would go under the total. Since it’s happening in mid-July, I lean towards the over.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers (7 for 23 with 6 HR against Cole)
4-star plays: JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton
4-star plays: Josh Donaldson, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
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Seattle Mariners (-135) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Mariners – Chris Flexen
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I like this game quite a bit from an offensive standpoint as both teams have a few guys that come in pretty hot or with strong BvP history. I normally dislike Winker but he feels like a great play in this one. Seager continues to drive baseballs and is one of the hottest in the league.
SEA 5-star plays: Jesse Winker
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Pirates – Undecided
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We get one final game in Coors before the break and we are waiting on the Pirates to decide their pitching plans. I am going to stick to the COL side yet again, even though Gomber has struggled quite a bit this year. I can get behind a mini-stack of PIT bats but that’s about it.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Kevin Newman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last week.
Oakland As @ Houston Astros (-285)
Pitchers:
As – Adam Oller
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get a really interesting one here. Odorizzi can get hit hard, early, and often but the A’s aren’t really a team that does much of those things. Oller can get hit around quite a bit but the HOU lineup isn’t exactly destroying the baseball right now. I will stack HOU but reluctantly at this point.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Aledmys Diaz, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .077 over the last week.
Arizona D’Backs @ San Diego Padres (-160)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I like this game to go under 7.5 with the two SPs that are going today. Neither offense is one that I think is rolling at the plate and both guys are very capable of shutting down the opposition. With that said, I don’t mind targeting a couple of mini-stacks for GPP purposes.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Alek Thomas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Seattle Mariners
MLB Dinger of the Day – Austin Riley, ATL
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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