Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/16:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Fried
- Justin Verlander
- Max Scherzer
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Philadelphia Phillies (-125) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Suarez will be making his return from the IL and is in a decent spot. The issue is that he hasn’t been consistent this season. He’s been frustrating in 2022 because a lot more was expected out of him after what he flashed in 2021. Hoskins has dominated Rogers and is at the top of my Dinger of the Day debate for Saturday.
PHI 5-star plays: Rhys Hoskins
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .108 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .081 over the last week.
New York Mets (-140) @ Chicago Cubs – Game 1
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. A low total game, which tells me that we are looking at terrible hitting weather at Wrigley for today. Walker is in a great spot for Game 1 while Stroman could be decent or the Lindor-Nimmo combination could do some damage. If Walker is priced decently, he is going to be one of my favorite plays.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Mark Canha
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last week.
New York Mets (-225) @ Chicago Cubs – Game 2
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. With game 1 having a low total, I have to assume the weather will be consistent and that puts Scherzer in a GREAT spot for game 2. I think the Mets’ best chance at being in a GPP-winning lineup is in game 2 against Smyly.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nico Hoerner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .128 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-170)
Pitchers:
Reds – Nick Lodolo
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I actually like both sides from an offensive standpoint while understanding that both SPs are capable of putting up a strong performance. Mikolas has been strong much of the season and Lodolo has been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball the last couple of years.
CIN 5-star plays: Brandon Drury
4-star plays: Jonathan India
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill
GPP Note: Team ISO of .132 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-190) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Angels – Jose Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We need to continue to pick on the Angels with competent pitchers. Urias is more than just a competent arm and he provides us with plenty of upside. I thought there was a chance the LAD lineup would wake up Friday night and they definitely did. There’s a pretty good chance they continue it against Suarez.
LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith, Justin Turner
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .073 over the last week.
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Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We are probably waiting on the official SP announcement for the Rays. If it is Yarbrough, I think that we see the Orioles favored against him. Mancini has hit him well in his career. Kremer has actually been really solid for Baltimore and gets a weak TB lineup.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Jorge Mateo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz, Ji-Man Choi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians (-170)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Michael Pineda
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get a tough game to figure out here as both pitchers are guys I like to attack with bats but we have a couple of offenses that aren’t all that fun to stack. I trust the CLE bats more so I assume I will be including them in my MME pool of main stack options.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Riley Greene, Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .067 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Jose Ramirez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins (-120)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Twins – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Lynn has been great against this MIN roster but he has been pretty bad this season. With that being said, this has the feeling of being an 8-6 type of game by the end. Abreu is on my short list of dinger calls with how well he is swinging the bat.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Alex Kirilloff
4-star plays: Luis Arraez, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pitchers:
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Blue Jays – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Whoever the Blue Jays decide to run out on the mound should be in a great spot against the current KC lineup while also getting strong run support. If you are into prop betting, I would say that getting into some TOR HR props might be profitable today.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez, George Springer
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
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Atlanta Braves (-250) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Braves are in yet another smash spot. They have plenty of favorable BvP plus a number of guys in their main lineup are swinging hot bats over the last week. Fried is going to make my short list of SP options with the main worry being controlling Juan Soto.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley, Matt Olson
4-star plays: Adam Duvall, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ San Francisco Giants (-130)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. If we get a normal SF lineup, I really like them as a sneaky GPP squad with the power they’ve been showcasing. I am not sure if Flores will return or not but he had been rolling at the plate. I think a couple of the Brewers bats can get to Cobb but I don’t love their lineup overall.
MIL 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Willy Adames
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Austin Slater, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .221 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees (-160)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I know the total isn’t exactly eye-popping but I think we see offensive fireworks. There are some strong BvP spots in this game, especially for the Yankees. Taillon hasn’t been as sharp recently and the Red Sox are a team you need to be on your game against.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
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Seattle Mariners (-140) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rangers – Spencer Howard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Howard hasn’t figured it out at the MLB level so that puts the Mariners in a great position for us. Gilbert has plenty of upside but a couple of TEX bats have hit him well and Seager is absolutely scorching hot at the plate right now. I would guess Seager is a popular HR choice.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis Garcia
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies (-125)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Rockies – Jose Urena
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. I will be going back to the Rockies again here but this game doesn’t excite me a whole lot and that’s saying a lot, considering it’s a Coors game. The PIT lineup is pretty cold right now but a guy like Urena could help them get it figured out and I do think that somebody on PIT goes deep.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Daniel Vogelbach, Oneil Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .180 over the last week.
Oakland As @ Houston Astros (-365)
Pitchers:
As – Jared Koenig
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. We are going to be ALL about Verlander against whatever it is that you call the OAK lineup. The Astros lineup has gone a bit cold and Altuve could be out again today. I wanted to be stacking against Koenig but I don’t see much to love for Houston.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Aledmys Diaz, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .077 over the last week.
Arizona D’Backs @ San Diego Padres (-190)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Tyler Gilbert
Padres – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Gilbert has allowed 6 HRs in 71 ABs to RHBs so far in 2022. The D’Backs have the hottest hitter in this game but Manaea is definitely going to be popular. Marte might be a great one-off play while the Padres make sense as a GPP stack, though they aren’t a slam dunk.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Jordan Luplow
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Luke Voit, Estuery Ruiz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- San Francisco Giants
- New York Yankees
MLB Dinger of the Day – Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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