Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. The summer rolls on, and it gives us a couple of early games along with some hot (and some not) games on a 13-game main slate. There are a lot of ways to go today without worrying about a chalky Coors game on the featured slates (don’t worry, you can still play them if you need some afternoon action). There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We get a nice wide range of pitching options today, complete with some studs, duds, and everything in between. I think we have several pitchers that are priced incorrectly as well, so there could be a few landmines (for both pitchers and offenses) lurking, which is always exciting. There are several teams with 3.XX IRTs, so finding a cash game pitcher or two shouldn’t be too bad, but I’m really interested in the tournament options today. It’ll be a fun one to dig through, but if you don’t have the time, be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see where ours are leaning!
Early games
Pittsburg Pirates at Miami Marlins
We’ll kick things off with the first of two early-afternoon games, this one between the Pirates and Marlins. Thompson and Garrett will get the start, and with this massive 7.5 total, it’s hard to want to look at the rest of the day. Well, bad/obvious sarcasm aside, I could see the Marlins doing a few things here, so maybe give them a look.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – Castillo
GPP note – Garret has been a bit more stingy than his salary would indicate, so I don’t see these guys taking off here (Vegas seems to agree with this 3.33 IRT). One-offs or mini-stacks might be about all that’s useful here.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Cooper, Sanchez/Rojas
GPP note – This is a pretty good matchup for these guys, though they aren’t hitting righties all that well at the moment. This could be a slump-buster matchup, so consider stacking accordingly (Thompson gives up lots of contact and power to both sides of the plate).
San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies
We’ll head to Coors for our next matchup, this one between the Padres and Rockies. Snell and Freeland will get the start here, and well, it’s Coors, so you don’t really need me to tell you what to do.
Padres 5 star plays – Machado
Padres 4 star plays – Kim, Grisham
GPP note – They get Freeland at Coors, so it’s easy to just go nuts here. To be a little different, consider the lefties as Freeland is giving up more power to them as of late.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron/Joe, Blackmon/Rodgers
GPP note – Snell has looked sharp lately, but it’s Coors, so who knows what’ll happen here. He’s not giving up much power, though there is slightly more being given up to righties.
Main slate
Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees
Switching over to the main slate, we’ll start with Castillo and the Reds taking on Cortes and the Yankees. This one could play out a little closer than expected, with the pitching matchups and all, and seeing as Vegas is giving them an 8 total, this one feels like a good place to hedge some bets.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Drury/Pham, Senzel
GPP note – Cortes has been getting dinged around a bit as of late, though he has been facing more competent offenses. He was giving up a lot of power to their lefties, but since we know he has the upside in him, this wouldn’t be a bad spot to hedge.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo, Judge/Stanton
GPP note – Castillo has been tough, but these guys are hitting for a ton against righties. This would be an even better spot to hedge, as both sides have plenty of upside but only one will come out on top (well, I guess that’s not always the case for fantasy purposes, but I digress).
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Next up we get Wright and the Braves taking on Sanchez and the Nationals. We haven’t seen Sanchez yet this year, so who knows what we’ll get there, but Vegas certainly loves Wright and the Atlanta offense. I have a feeling this one will play out exactly as Vegas is laying it out (hot take, I know).
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Riley/Olson
GPP note – There’s no telling what we’ll see from Sanchez here, so go big or go home with the stacks. They’re just about all hitting righties well though, so I think they’ll get some damage done here (consider some wrap-around stacks if they look to be chalky).
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell, Y. Hernandez
GPP note – Wright is giving up some decent contact to righties to go along with about a home run given up per game, so it wouldn’t be a bad idea to try an RvR bat to go with any Soto/Bell stacks.
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Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays
Next up we get Hernandez and my Royals taking on Gausman and the Blue Jays. I don’t mind a few small pieces of the KC offense here, but I’m talking very small. Most of the excitement will probably come from the home team, especially considering this will be the first game back for Hernandez in two months.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 3.5 star plays – Merrifield/Melendez, Dozier
GPP note – Overall a down-matchup for these guys (shocking, I know), but a few are hitting righties for power. Some small exposure here wouldn’t be the worst thing you could do.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero, Kirk/Chapman
GPP note – It’ll be the first game back for Hernandez in two months, so while we don’t know entirely what to expect..…yeah, I expect him to give up some big hits, too. Stack away!
Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
Rodriguez and the Tigers will take on McKenzie and the Guardians next, and this one feels like a game where either team (perhaps both) could do some damage. I don’t think they are going to be a prime stacking target, so maybe they’d be worth taking a few shots with.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Ramirez/Baez
GPP note – While these guys aren’t hitting righties all that well, McKenzie is giving up plenty to both sides (a bit more to righties, actually), so this could be a spot for them to do some low-owned damage.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Reyes/Gimenez/Naylor
GPP note – Rodriguez is giving up a ton to righties, so be sure to attack him there. He’s not giving up much power to lefties, but there is a lot of xwOBA there, so it’s surely coming. I could see some back-and-forth happening here.
Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays
Up next we get the Red Sox and Rays, with Crawford and Rasmussen on the mound. I feel like their salaries should be swapped, but hey, I don’t work at DK/FD. We’ll see if I’m right at the end of the day, but my money is on Crawford outscoring Rasmussen.
Red Sox 5 star plays – Devers
Red Sox 4 star plays – Duran/Martinez
GPP note – This is a solid spot against Rasmussen, who is giving up a ton of power to righties and isn’t getting many strikeouts. Vegas doesn’t have a total at the time I’m writing this, but whatever it is, I say it’ll go over that.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Arozarena
GPP note – Crawford has been sharp in his return and held these guys down not too long ago, so you may consider either making a fade here or hedging some. He’s only giving up modest power to either side of the plate.
Los Angeles Dodgers at St Louis Cardinals
We’ll head back up northwest a bit for our next game, this one between the Dodgers and Cardinals. We’ll have Anderson and Hudson starting this one, and even though neither is a scrub pitcher, I just feel like this game has the potential for a healthy serving of runs (coming from both sides). I’m hesitant to use either pitcher here, but there are plenty of bats that look enticing.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman/Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Turner/Turner, Bellinger
GPP note – He has decent games here and there, but overall Hudson is a good target to attack with his high x/wOBA given up to both sides and low strikeout rate. Pretty much everyone here can hit righties for power, so you know what to do.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Yepez
GPP note – All things considered, this looks like a matchup split right down the middle, which is a little unexpected considering Anderson’s salary. It might not be a bad idea to take some stacks here.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Next up we have Cueto and the White Sox taking on Gray and the Twins. Vegas is giving this one an 8.5, but overall I think we’ll see the under. I do think most of the damage will come from the home team, but I feel like they might do just enough to win rather than make a point.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu
GPP note – Gray isn’t giving up a whole lot, but isn’t getting a ton of strikeouts either. He may pull through for his team, but I worry about the ceiling about him and this offense for fantasy purposes.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Correa/Polanco, Kirilloff
GPP note – Cueto is allowing plenty of power to both sides of the plate, as well as a lot of xwOBA to lefties, so you can take some healthy stacks against him and his decently high salary here.
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Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
We’ll head all the down south for our next bout, this one between the Mariners and Rangers. Gonzales and Perez will get the start here, and this is another game that I could see getting a little (or a lot) out of hand. It won’t be sneaky though, so you may have to get creative elsewhere.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez, Suarez/France/Raleigh
GPP note – These teams are good at bringing out the runs against one another, and while Perez has been decently solid, I think they have the upper hand here. Ride the wave and take some stacks!
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Semien/Seager
GPP note – Gonzales is itching to get blown up in this Texas heat, so grab some stacks here. I could see this game going well beyond the over, so be sure to have your pieces of it (they’re bound to be popular, so consider running some stacks back with teams like Detroit/Cleveland to be a little different).
New York Mets at Chicago Cubs
It looks like we forgot a game up north, so we’ll head back that way for our next matchup. This one will be between the Mets and Cubs, with Carrasco and Thompson on the mound to start. I could see this one going several different ways, but it’s going to really depend on which version of each pitcher shows up. You may want to hedge or just take a stand one way or the other.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor/McNeil
GPP note – It’s not the easiest matchup for him, but Thompson is pitching well above his salary and could slow these guys down a bit. Consider a fade here (or just mini-stacks as opposed to full ones), as people may blindly stack here based on Thompson’s salary alone.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras, Morel
GPP note – Carrasco has been up-and-down as of late, so I could see this going either way. I do think it’s a little in his favor here, but I wouldn’t mind a few hedged lineups to cover both the up and down scenarios.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
We’ll now head out west for our next two games, the first of which will be between the Astros and Angels. Valdez and Detmers will get the start here, and this one will surely be all Houston. They’re only at a 4.46 IRT as of 5:00 AM CST, but I suspect it will inch closer to a 5.0 as the day progresses.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Bregman/Gurriel
GPP note – Detmers had a good game against the O’s, but these ain’t the O’s. These guys are blistering lefties and that’ll probably continue, so I think they’ll go well above their ~4.5 IRT.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout/Ohtani, Ward
GPP note – This is a tough matchup for these guys, so aside from the usual Trout/Ohtani (and maybe Ward), you may want to look elsewhere.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
And finally, we’ll wrap up the day with the Brewers and Giants, with Burnes and Rodon on the hill. With two studs and a whopping 6.0 IRT, I don’t think either offense is in for a good time. Me though, I love pitching duels, and I hope this one is an enjoyable one to watch!
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Adames/Urias/Yelich/McCutchen
GPP note – There’s not much to love with such a low total against a stingy Rodon, so only go here if you think something silly happens.
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Pederson/Flores
GPP note – Same as above. I could see this one being a 1-to-nothing dud for the offenses, so be careful.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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