Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 7/11:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Fried
- Brayan Bello
- Max Scherzer
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins (-160)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I will be on both pitchers, yes that means Keller too. I just don’t think highly of either offense right now. Hayes had a strong game on Sunday and he does hit LHPs pretty well. I think I will use guys as one-off bats from this one but not very many shares.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Diego Castillo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves (-125)
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. While I will be using both pitchers plenty, I will be building mini-stacks of both offenses. Both sides are coming into this series showcasing plenty of power. There are a couple of guys with power history against the opposing SP here and I would guess the July weather in ATL is hot.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .218 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies (-115) @ St Louis Cardinals
Pitchers:
Phillies – Aaron Nola
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Nola takes on a struggling Cardinals lineup so I definitely will be all about him, even with him pitching away from home (traditionally huge home splits). Mikolas isn’t much of a dog at home and the total is pretty low so he is going to end up on my radar. This is probably a good game to target one-off HRs or mini-stacks.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Darick Hall
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .051 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox (-120) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Brayan Bello
Rays – Matt Wisler/Bullpen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The total tells me that I shouldn’t be big on the BOS lineup but they come into this game putting up runs. I normally hate targeting teams against potential bullpen games but I think the hot bats continue for BOS. Bello wasn’t sharp in his debut but now gets an extremely weak TB lineup to attack.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Christian Vazquez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .136 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .130 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-140) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Tigers – Michael Pineda
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The totals in this doubleheader are really strong but the issue is that neither offense is a great one to target. I do think that I will be on some KC bats today as they make a solid mini-stack option with either how a few have been over the last week or based on BvP history. I know that I will not be using any of the SPs in this doubleheader.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Spencer Torkelson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals (-135) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Tigers – Alex Faedo
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The totals in this doubleheader are really strong but the issue is that neither offense is a great one to target. I do think that I will be on some KC bats today as they make a solid mini-stack option with either how a few have been over the last week or based on BvP history. I know that I will not be using any of the SPs in this doubleheader.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Eric Haase
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: Andrew Benintendi
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last week.
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Chicago White Sox (-115) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I was a little shocked by the total given the struggles of both teams’ hitters recently. I keep expecting Lynn to show up and be his dominant self but I need to remember he’s been way behind everybody else. Jose Abreu just keeps hitting the baseball hard and all over the ballpark. He should be one of the top plays of the day.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Franmil Reyes, Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
Arizona D’Backs @ San Francisco Giants (-165)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. There are a couple of bats who are either red hot or have hit the opposing SP really well in this game and that’s enough for me to want to get some mini-stacks, despite the total being so low. Both SPs are guys that I use on a somewhat regular basis so I would imagine that both will make my player pool on site later today.
ARI 5-star plays: Josh Rojas
4-star plays: Carson Kelly
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .116 over the last week.
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Oakland A’s @ Texas Rangers (-170)
Pitchers:
A’s – Adrian Martinez
Rangers – Spencer Howard
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I have a thing for Adrian Martinez’s ability to get outs stemming from his minor league performances. They haven’t translated all that well to the majors but I do know that he’s more of a reverse splits guy. Laureano and the A’s get a pitcher that just can’t figure it out at the MLB level but the issue remains that the OAK lineup is more of a minor league lineup, just filled with some older vets.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .187 over the last week.
San Diego Padres (-145) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Padres – Sean Manaea
Rockies – Jose Urena
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11.5. We get a Coors game on a small-ish slate, which is going to drive up the ownership. I realize that Bryant left yesterday’s game but he has such a great match-up plus he’s been rolling at the plate. I do need to dig in more to see how well the Padres have performed in Coors but Urena should be a guy that they smack around.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .086 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Kris Bryant
4-star plays: Brendan Rodgers, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- San Diego Padres
MLB Dinger of the Day – Kris Bryant, Colorado
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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