Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. It’s been a little while, but I’m back to take the lead through this Sunday preview. I had a couple of summer classes to knock out in June, so I’m sure you all understand. Anyway, there’s a lot to cover with today, so let’s get to it!
A look at pitchers
We have a wide selection of pitching options today, both good and bad with a lot in between. Four of them have KSCOREs well above 500 (one of which is nearly 600), while nearly half of today’s pitchers have SIERAs above the 4.5 mark (with two of them being near or above a 6). Though variety is the spice of life, there will surely be several landmines for us to avoid today. Your best bet is to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in, and who they think we should be stacking against.
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Main slate
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
We’ll kick things off with the Angels and Orioles, with Suarez and Voth on the hill. This one looks pretty good for the visitors, and I suspect they’ll start the day off with a win here (though I don’t know that we’ll see a big score from this one). It might be a game of one-offs and/or mini-stacks.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Ohtani/Trout
GPP note – Voth has been a bit stingy to both sides of the plate, though his xwOBA numbers are creeping up. This warrants some exposure, but don’t be surprised if he keeps these bats mostly in check.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Mountcastle
GPP note – Though a mostly bad matchup for these bats, Suarez is allowing a moderate amount of power to lefties and might give up a homer here. I don’t think I’d focus my big stacks here, but some one-offs or mini-stacks could be sprinkled around.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Next up we have the Nationals and Braves, with Espino and Anderson as the starters. It looks to be more of the same for the Nats’ offense, but some righties could be sprinkled around. They’ll need to do something though, as this looks like a good spot for the Braves to do some damage.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell
GPP note – Anderson allows more power to righties, so don’t be afraid to grab a RHB to go along with some Soto/Bell pairings.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna/Riley/Olson, Ozuna
GPP note – Espino is allowing lots of power to both sides of the plate and a lot of xwOBA to lefties. I think we’ll see some fireworks here, so grab some shares!
Miami Marlins at New York Mets
Moving on we have Alcantara and the Marlins taking on Walker and the Mets. I could see this game being rather underwhelming for both offenses, as they’ll both face tough pitching, so you may want to look elsewhere for your big stacks. These starters are both certainly interesting though, no?
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 3.5 star plays – Cooper
GPP note – This is a tough matchup and outside of Cooper, these guys aren’t doing much against righties. Proceed with caution.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, Nimmo/McNeil
GPP note – This is a bit of a tough matchup too, but Alcantara does allow some power to righties.
Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds
Baz and the Rays take on Lodolo and the Reds next, and this one might just play out like the previous game. Baz has been stingy and Lodolo hit the ground running in his return, so if they can keep that all going, we could have another low-scoring affair here.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 3.5 star plays – Franco/Diaz
GPP note – Lodolo looked sharp in his return against the Mets, so be careful going heavy against him. If you do, I’d recommend hedging your bets.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 3.5 star plays – Votto, Drury
GPP note – A rather unfavorable matchup for these guys, Baz isn’t allowing power to either side and his strikeout rate is well above average. I’d be cautious here.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Our next game features Hutchison and the Tigers taking on Kopech and the White Sox. Fortunately, both of these pitchers are allowing plenty, so hopefully these offenses can make up for the possible duds the previous four might post up. Be sure to have some exposure to this one!
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Haase, Cabrera/Baez
GPP note – Kopech is allowing plenty of contact and power to both sides of the plate, so this will either be a good spot for the Tigers to do some damage, or for Kopech to have a rebound performance. I think hedging could be useful here.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Abreu, Robert/Anderson
GPP note – Hutchison should offer us 3-5 innings of low-strikeout pitching with lots of xwOBA to both sides, giving these guys some decent chances of scoring. I’d grab at least some medium-sized stacks, and consider a few full ones.
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Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals
Next up we have Plesac and the Guardians taking on Greinke and my Royals. I don’t see either offense going berserk, but I could see a handful of bats having a solid day here. Greinke continues to struggle and Plesac isn’t the most consistent/dominant guy out there, so I could see both giving up a home run or two.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Reyes/Gimenez
GPP note – Greinke continues to struggle and allow home runs, so I’d jump on board while the train is still hot. Most of the damage is coming from righties, so consider them to go with Ramirez (this feels like a good game for him to get another double-digit fantasy game).
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield/Melendez, Dozier/Witt
GPP note – This is a fairly average matchup for these guys, so maybe one or two of them can do something against Plesac’s low strikeout rate and above-average xwOBA given up to both sides.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Quintana and the Pirates will take on Lauer and the Brewers next, and this one is a little interesting. We have a not-so-great offense with the Pirates going up against a high-dollar pitcher who is allowing plenty when it comes to statcast numbers, so it’s reasonable to think that this one could go either way (though I figure Lauer will prevail in the end). Don’t be afraid to grab a few contrarian shares there, as I don’t think many will be doing that. Quintana is pitching better than his DK price would indicate, so we’ll see if people jump on some Milwakee stacks due to salary alone.
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 3.5 star plays – Chavis
GPP note – These guys are stinking it up against lefties, but Lauer is allowing all sorts of contact and power to both sides of the plate. This looks to be another good spot to hedge some bets, should you not be able to pick one side or the other.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 3.5 star plays – Adames/Urias, Yelich
GPP note – Quintana has been holding his own but has shown some weakness to righties, so feel free to attack him from that side.
Philadelphia Phillies at St Louis Cardinals
Moving on we have Nelson (I think?) and the Phillies taking on Pallante and the Cardinals. This one is a little goofy, especially since the Phillies might just be rolling out a bullpen game, but we’ll see what happens. Going with the tried and true bats here might be the best approach.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Schwarber/Hoskins
GPP note – Pallante has allowed plenty of hits against decent offenses, but with that has shown some reverse splits. Consider some righties here to go along with Schwarber.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado, Yepez
GPP note – This looks to be a bullpen game of sorts, so plan accordingly. It might be best to just stick to Goldschmidt, Arenado, and Yepez.
Minnesota Twins at Texas Rangers
We wrap up the main slate with the Twins and Rangers, with Bundy and Dunning on the mound. It’s pretty straightforward here: both pitchers are allowing decent traditional splits and both offenses are in a spot to take advantage of that. I suspect we’ll see some decent scoring here, though I don’t know that a slate-breaking full stack will emerge.
Twins 5 star plays – Polanco
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton, Krilloff
GPP note – Traditional splits are in play here, as Duunning is allowing a lot to lefties with hardly anything to righties. His strikeout rate is pretty low though, so I wouldn’t argue against anyone you decide to throw at him.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager/Garcia, Semien
GPP note – Similar to above, though Bundy is allowing equal (though average) xwOBA to both sides, with above-average power to lefties.
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Late slates
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
We’ll kick off the late slates with Odorizzi and the Astros taking on Irvin and the Athletics. This game feels a bit like the previous one, though I could see the Astros doing a bit more damage here. They won’t be sneaky though, I’m afraid. The A’s might be though, so consider taking some shares of them if you think Odorizzi has another rough outing.
Astros 5 star plays – Altuve
Astros 4 star plays – Alvarez/Tucker/Bregman
GPP note – Similar to the previous game, though these bats are hitting much better than either of those two teams. Irvin is allowing most all of his power to righties.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 4 star plays – Andrus/Laureano
GPP note – Odorizzi’s had a rough return against the Royals, but we’ll see if he can rebound here. It would seem the righties on this team are hitting right-handed pitchers better than the lefties are.
Toronto Blue Jays at Seattle Mariners
Castillo (maybe?) and the Blue Jays take on Gilbert and the Mariners next, and this one looks awfully good for the visitors. Hopefully Gilbert’s salary will keep their ownership down, but on paper this looks like a great spot for them to do some damage. As for the Mariners, it looks like a bullpen game, so it’s hard to be in love with them (but they might still have a few bats worth looking at).
Blue Jays 5 star plays – Springer
Blue Jays 4 star plays – Guerrero/Gurriel, Kirk/Chapman
GPP note – Gilbert is showing some reverse splits struggles, which plays right into this team’s hand. Be sure you’ve got your exposure here.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Rodriguez/Suarez, Moore
GPP note – It might be a bullpen game, so it’s hard to say where to go, but a few of these guys are hitting righties well.
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
Moving on we have another bullpen game (probably) with the Cubs, taking on Urias and the Dodgers. This one looks to be all LA, which I guess shouldn’t be too surprising, but I have to throw out some hot takes somewhere, right? Anyway, you can always run some contrarian stacks, but I don’t know that they’re going to get very far.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 3.5 star plays – Contreras
GPP note – This is a tough matchup, so proceed with caution. Urias has allowed some power to lefties, so you could try to grab a low-owned homer against him there?
Dodgers 5 star plays – none
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts/Freeman, Turner/Turner
GPP note – Another bullpen game, so it’s tough to know who will be in the best spot…but it’s the Dodgers, they’re all worth a look.
San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres
Wood and the Giants take on Gore and the Padres next, and I think this one might just boil down to who San Francisco starts. You see, Gore is allowing a LOT to righties, but the Giants are loaded to the brim with lefties, who he’s doing pretty well against. We’ll see if they read this article and get the idea to roll out a bunch of righties or not (if they do, you’re welcome), but until then, we’ll just have to wait and see who they start. As for the Padres, it’s not a great matchup against Wood, so it might just be “grab Machado or some other righty and then bail.”
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 4 star plays – Any righties that start, Pederson/Yastrzemski
GPP note – Gore’s strikeouts are down and he’s allowing a ton to righties (with almost nothing to lefties), so go with traditional splits here (hopefully they have some righties to start).
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 3.5 star plays – Machado
GPP note – A below-average matchup for these guys, Wood is allowing some power to righties but not much else. I don’t see big stacks being the play here.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
We’ll wrap up the afternoon games with the Rockies and Diamondbacks, who will Marquez and Gilbert, respectively. This Gilbert is half the price of the other one and should make for a nice target, though unfortunately that means the Rockies will be popular, even when they’re not at Coors (though this is still a good hitting environment). I suspect they’ll get theirs, so this game might just depend on which version of Marquez shows up. If he’s good, the Rockies should walk away with a win here. If not, we could have some nice back-and-forth action going on.
Rockies 5 star plays – Bryant
Rockies 4 star plays – Joe/Rodgers/Cron/Blackmon
GPP note – Gilbert looks to be a decent target here, and these guys are hitting lefties quite well as of late. This should be a good place to grab stacks of any size.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Varsho/Rojas, Peralta
GPP note – Marquez is trying to hold his own but as been a bit up and down, so don’t be afraid to stack here in case he has another rough outing. Most of his power is being given up to righties, for what it’s worth.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
And finally, we have our showdown game between the Yankees and Red Sox, who will start Taillon and Pivetta. While I do think some bats will get theirs, I don’t know that either offense will go crazy here, as both pitchers can minimize damage done to them. It’ll be a nice strategic game, I think, so be sure to check out the coach’s notes to see who they like best!
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Rizzo, Judge/Stanton
GPP note – Pivetta can hold his own, but against this offense it’s going to be a much tougher task. I don’t know that a full stack will go off here, but some of them should get theirs, I would think. He does allow more power to lefties.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers, Duran/Martinez
GPP note – Similar to above, but Taillon is allowing a lot more contact and power to lefties with much less to righties, so it’s easier to just go with traditional splits here and try to mix and match with the Yanks.
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And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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