Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Jul 8, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler (45) pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals during the fourth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Zack Wheeler O 6Ks
PHI vs CHC
This line is a result of recency bias. Wheeler recorded 5, 5, and 4 strikeouts in his last 3 starts. We regularly saw Wheeler’s strikeout line set at or over 7. Wheeler ranks in the 73rd percentile in strikeouts, 51st in whiff, and 91st in chase rate. He has been automatic at home this season with much better numbers than away. Wheeler holds a 1.62ERA and 0.84WHIP at Citizens Bank Park. The Chicago Cubs do have some home/road splits as they do not play as well on the road. Nico Hoerner and Yan Gomes have low strikeout rates. The rest of this squad all have above a 20% K rate. Wheeler has the exact same K rate against righties as he does against lefties at 26.7%. This is a much easier matchup than his last 3 starts, twice against the Cardinals, once against the Blue Jays. I expect Wheeler to return to his 7+K form today against this weak Cubs offense.
Brandon Woodruff O 6.5Ks
MIL vs COL
The Brewers and Rockies played a 13 inning game on Friday. Milwaukee used 7 bullpen arms. For someone who has ace stuff, Woodruff does not exceed 100 pitches thrown often. His line is at 96.5 which I can get behind if anyone wants the over on it. I will stick with the strikeouts. Colorado strikes out at a much higher rate against RHPs than LHPs. In addition, they are a much worse offense, which includes striking out more, when they play on the road. Woodruff has a 30.2% K rate this season. He pitches much better at home which fits right in line with Colorado’s struggles on the road away from Coors Field. The Brewers could potentially push their stud to go an extra batter or even an inning to save the bullpen a bit. On the season, Colorado strikes out 22.3% against RHPs on the road, 18th in the league. That is not that high of a rate but they also are not facing Brandon Woodruff every night. Woodruff has elite strikeout stuff. This line is going to move to 7.
Johnny Cueto U 102.5 pitches thrown
CWS vs CLE
Cueto finished with 118 pitches his last start. He was already at 103 but he begged manager Tony La Russa for one more inning. La Russa sent him back out there but told Cueto his night would be over if a runner reached base. Cueto got through the inning which pushed that pitch count to 118. I do not think major league managers are going to listen to their players every time. There are many ways in which Cueto can go under this line. His pitch counts are all over the place. Aside from last start, he has only had 1 other start over 102.5 pitches. This line is inflated because of that last start. The Guardians are not a top offense but they are more than capable of battling against Cueto. They do not strike out. Cueto is now 36 years old. His numbers indicate that he has been lucky this season. His savant page shows a lot of blue. Even with the doubleheader, this is a tall task to ask Cueto to throw at least 103 pitches after a start he went 118.
Myles Straw G1 U 6.5fpt
CLE @ CWS
We have not seen Straw fantasy score lines on the board for a while. For some reason, he is back. Straw started off well but has been ice cold ever since. The opening day leadoff hitter is now the team’s 9-hole hitter. This really makes it tough to score 7 fpt. He will be batting behind possibly Austin Hedges instead of having Amed Rosario and Jose Ramirez hitting directly behind him. This is game 1 of a doubleheader today so we do not need to keep an eye out on the lineup. Straw does steal but Cueto has been able to manage the run game well throughout his career. He varies his delivery to make it tough for the runner on first and the hitter to time him. Straw only has a 14.8% k rate but he does not do much damage when he hits the ball. He ranks poorly in barrel, xLG, and hard hit % which all are in the bottom 2 percentile. Straw is batting .212 with a .227xBA. This line is still set for him to be the leadoff hitter, which he has not been for a while now.
Kyle Wright O 5.5Ks
ATL vs LAA
At this point, everyone targets the Angels for strikeouts. The Angels have a 29.7% K rate against RHPs when playing away for the entire 2022 season. That number ranks first be a decent margin already. If we change the date range to start on June 1 to account for the Angels hot start, they have a 30.3% K rate. That is 3.5% higher than the 2nd highest team (Pirates). This really is an insanely high number. Wright has taken a huge leap this season. His strikeout rate was at 17% his first few years in the league. This season, he has bumped that up to 23.9%. His chase rate ranks in teh 39th percentile but he does rank in the 64th percentile for whiffs. Wright’s K splits are 24.5% vs RHBs and 23.3% vs LHBs. The Angels lineup features multiple 30%+ K hitters. If Wright continues his strong season, he should get at least 6Ks against this strikeout-prone team.
Just missed the cut: Castellanos U 1.5h+bb, Anibal U 4.5Ks, Judge O 1.5tb
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
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