MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
Congratulations to VIP “c00k00” and his huge NASCAR win recently!! Unlock premium content for any DFS sport when you use code MDELL. As a bonus, you receive a 10% discount…the real VIP treatment!!
Congrats to DFS Army long-time member “rockchalker2002” on a solid Sunday slate the other day! Keep it rolling!
You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…
MAIN MLB DFS Slate (10 games starting at 4pm est.)
***Today is a weird slate the way that DraftKings and Fanduel split everything up. I will first break down the 4pm MAIN slate on Fanduel. After that, I will list the pitchers I like for the games JUST on the DraftKings site (mostly 10pm games)***
VERY IMPORTANT NOTE, YOU CAN ALWAYS GET UP-TO-DATE UPDATES ON OUR DISCORD SERVER BY SIGNING UP FOR OUR VIP MEMBERSHIP! USE MY CODE “MDELL” TO SAVE 10% OFF YOUR MEMBERSHIP
Kevin Gausman @ DET
I wrote up Berrios last night and he threw an amazing game. I do believe that Gausman is going to turn it around from his last couple of starts and have a really good one here. He struggled against MIN allowing 3 ER and 9 hits in 3.2 innings. Berrios was able to go 8 innings last night and I think Gausman can do the same here. DET has a 25% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and isn’t hitting that well as a team. They had just 5 hits yesterday and scored 1 run. I think Gausman has 8+ strikeout upside here tonight. ALL FORMATS
Zack Wheeler vs ARI
Arizona is another team that is struggling at the plate. They have a good amount of power but strike out 2nd most in the league at 26.1% to RHP in the last 2 weeks. They have a high ISO, but only a .206 batting average. Wheeler was put on the paternity list Tuesday but is back after the birth of his child. Dad strength is real with athletes too. Wheeler has been really good of late going at least 6 innings in 6 of his last 7 starts and racking up no less than 7 strikeouts in those starts. I love his upside tonight too and it is a good matchup with a lot of K’s to be had. ALL FORMATS
Framber Valdez vs MIA
Valdez isn’t super cheap here tonight, but he’s not the most expensive pitcher on the board. He has been consistent with going 6+ innings as he has a QS in 8 straight starts and has a good matchup with the Marlins here. Miami comes into this game with a 22% strikeout rate to LHP in the last two weeks but is hitting just .196 and have an ISO of .-072. Miami has been doing more of their damage against righties this year and I like the way Valdez has looked lately. he can rack up about a K per inning, depending on the matchup, and has not allowed more than 3 ER since April. ALL FORMATS
Jordan Montgomery vs CHC
Kept going back and forth on this pick. Montgomery has been pretty good for the Yankees all season, but just hasn’t gotten much run support and only has 1 win to show for it. He actually gets the fewest run support in the Yankee rotation. The biggest concern I have here with the Cubs projected lineup is that we see mostly all right-handed hitters and MAYBE just 1 lefty. This hurts him a bit as his strikeout rate drops to just 17% against RHB while being at 33% against LHB. At home though, Monty has a 20.5% strikeout rate and just 2.3% walk rate with a WHIP under 1.00. Montgomery doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact and a lot of the contact he allows is medium-soft contact. If he can go 6 innings and get a couple strikeouts without allowing too many homers, he could have a reasonable start here. GPP
Nick Martinez vs COL
Martinez last pitched in long relief against the Brewers last time out and did throw 70 pitches in 4 innings. He also threw over 90 pitches in his last start back in May. I don’t see him having much of a limit on his pitch count here as he’s shown that he can throw a bunch of pitches. Colorado got blanked last night by Joe Musgrove and over the last 2 weeks against RHP they have almost a 24% strikeout rate with an ISO of just .111. They have not been scoring a ton of runs lately either. Martinez has been pretty good, but he does tend to walk a lot of hitters and COL has a 8% walk rate against RHP which ranks near the top in the 2 week span. If he can keep his walks down, he could have a decent start. He has flashed upside this season. GPP ONLY
Charlie Morton vs PIT
Morton has been pretty bad this season and bad over his last 4 starts. He’s shown a couple flashes of bouncing back, but then turns in some bad starts. This matchup is much easier than his last one though. PIT comes into this game with a 26.3% strikeout rate against RHP and are hitting just .225. Morton has failed to make it more than 6 innings in his last 4 starts and the last time he did was May 20th against Miami. I do see some upside with him here against the Pirates though and I don’t mind his price for MME/GPPs. GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Kevin Gausman
- Zack Wheeler
- Framber Valdez
- Nick Martinez
- Jordan Montgomery
- Charlie Morton
Learn exciting new formats and use DFS Army proprietary projections to win 20X your entry fees. Our partner, SuperDraft DFS, is giving new users a generous deposit bonus AND a free month of DFS Army’s VIP program when they sign up in April. Don’t miss out!
Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- New York Yankees
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Atlanta Braves
- Los Angeles Dodgers
MAIN MLB DK DFS Slate (5 games)
I have covered part of the LAD/SF game and NYY/CHC game above with just 1 pitcher I have some interest in, this section will be the guys I have interest in with the 10pm games with NYM/LAA, BOS/SEA, and COL/SD Game 2.
Carlos Carrasco @ LAA
The Angels finally won a game, breaking their 14 game losing streak. It doesn’t get any easier for them though facing the Mets here. Carrasco has been really good for the Mets so far this year and coming off a 32.2 DK point game against the Padres. The Angels come into this game with a 26.1% strikeout rate against RHP and have really struggled. I like the upside for Carrasco on a smaller slate here. ALL FORMATS
Michael Wacha @ SEA
Wacha has looked pretty good for the Red Sox much of the year besides his start against the White Sox and last time against Seattle. Some concern here, but he still has under a 2 ERA and under a 1.00 WHIP on the season. He isn’t a big strikeout guy anyways, so you are really looking at 3-4 K’s for him each time he takes the hill. Seattle’s offense is dangerous at times, but they have been striking out a bit more against RHP in the last couple of weeks. GPP
MacKenzie Gore vs COL
Gore looks to be starting game 2 of the double header here tonight in San Diego. He has been brilliant for the Padres over his last few starts. Gore has scored over 24 DK points in 3 straight starts and has faced some decent offenses too. He has pretty good strikeout numbers too, striking out 19 over his last 2 starts. Colorado has been better against LHP than righties, but in the 2nd game of the double header I give him an edge here. ALL FORMATS
DINGER OF THE DAY
Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto (19) hits a 2-run RBI double in the first inning of the MLB game between the Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati on Thursday, June 9, 2022.
Arizona Diamondbacks At Cincinnati Reds
Joey Votto
Votto has been turning it around lately for the Reds and has some really good numbers against Wainwright in his career. He is 19-60 with 6 doubles and 4 HR against Waino, including 10 walks and just 8 K’s. Over the last couple of weeks for Votto, he’s hitting .333 with 3 HR and 7 doubles.
Why DFS Army?
Stop wasting your time!! DFS Army proprietary research methods knock your player picks out of the park while freeing you up to play all our sports. From NFL to NBA, from MLB to PGA, the days of hours and hours of statistical analysis are over. Learn how the pros play!! Become a VIP now!
