MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (7 Games)
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Sandy Alcantara @ STL
Tough matchup for Alcantara against the Cardinals who have been better against RHP this season, but he has been brilliant for the Marlins in his CY Young-type season right now for the fish. He has thrown 7+ innings in 9 straight starts and has been getting there with strikeouts too. He struggled a bit last time out against the Mets, allowing 4 runs, but that has been the only start where he has allowed more than 3 ER in 9 starts too. He’s usually good for a quality start with how deep he goes into games. Over the last 2 weeks against RHP, the Cards are striking out 26% of the time, so the K’s will be there for parts of this lineup tonight. ALL FORMATS
Alek Manoah vs BOS
Boston is missing some guys because they are playing in Canada and some guys are not vaccinated. Manoah has been really good for the Jays this season and normally is going 6+ innings in his starts. He has 12 QS in 14 starts this season too. He isn’t a huge strikeout guy but doesn’t allow a ton of baserunners either. In his one start against the Red Sox this year, he went 7 innings with 7 K’s and allowed just 4 baserunners in the start. He has been really good at home, allowing just a .185 BAA with just 11 ER in 46 innings. I like his upside here to shut down the Sox offense again. GPP
Shohei Ohtani vs CWS
Ohtani has been really good of late for the Angels starting. Since he struggled a bit in April, his June has been brilliant with 4 starts. In those 4 starts he has thrown 24 innings, struck out 27 hitters and has allowed just 5 ER, while limiting the opposing hitters to a .198 batting average. Righties aren’t having much success against him, hitting just .190 and lefties are only hitting .225 against him. The White Sox have some power in their lineup here, but they have a few guys who can strike out, ALL FORMATS
Kyle Wright @ PHI
Wright has struggled over his last couple of starts, allowing 21 hits and 9 ER. I do like this matchup for GPPs though against the Phillies who are without Harper now and are hitting just .203 over the last 2 weeks against RHP. They aren’t striking out a ton, but Wright should be good for 5-7 K’s in this one here tonight. If he can keep the ball on the ground, he should have some success tonight. He did face the Phillies once this year and allowed 3 ER in 6.2 innings while striking out 5 hitters. The runs came off the HR he allowed. If he can limit the HRs here and keep the ball down, he could have success against a scuffling offense. GPP
Nick Pivetta @ TOR
Pivetta has been really good for the Sox this season. You can saw last start was more of a ‘down’ start for him, but he still recorded a QS and got the win. It was a tough matchup against the Guardians who typically don’t strikeout much against righties. He has faced Toronto twice this season and has 10 K’s in 8.2 innings and allowed 7 ER. So he has struggled with them on the season. He hasn’t faced them since April though and has been really good since then. Since the 2nd start against the Jays, he has recorded 7 QS and his strikeout numbers have shown some improvement. I do worry about the tough Jays offense here, but he does have upside and the Sox haven’t lost 3 in a row in awhile. GPP BECAUSE OF THE TOUGH MATCHUP
Hunter Greene @ CHC
The Cubs have some power in their lineup, but Greene has elite strikeout stuff. He has struggled over his last 2 starts but has shown upside this season in the strikeout department. The Cubs are striking out 23% of the time against RHP in the last 2 weeks. He has really struggled with allowing HR’s this year, 20 HR in just 70 innings is concerning, but if he can get those down, he will show a ton of upside. GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Sandy Alcantara
- Shohei Ohtani
- Alek Manoah
- Nick Pivetta
- Kyle Wright
- Hunter Greene
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Colorado Rockies
- Chicago Cubs
- Minnesota Twins
DINGER OF THE DAY
May 28, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras (40) runs to second base after hitting a double against the Chicago White Sox during the seventh inning at Guaranteed Rate Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
Willson Contreras
Hunter Greene has allowed 20 HR’s this season in 70 innings and Contreras has 5 HR against RHP this year. He typically is better against lefties, but Greene has been worse against righties. Contreras has so much power and for the main slate tonight, Contreras is going to be my dinger of the day call.
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Featured Image:
Mar 31, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Los Angeles Angels pitcher Shohei Ohtani (17) throws against the Milwaukee Brewers during a spring training game at American Family Fields of Phoenix. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
