MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (13
games)
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Nestor Cortes Jr. @ TBR
Cortes struggled a bit in the last game against the Rays, going 5.1 innings and only striking out 4 hitters. On the season though, he has allowed just 2 ER against the Rays in 13 innings but only 9 strikeouts. The Rays have a lot of righties in their lineup and they haven’t been striking out a ton against LHP of late. I like Cortes in all formats tonight, but give a slight lean for him in GPPs. The Rays offense though, only has a .178 batting average against Cortes with a .470 OPS and only 1 guy has hit a HR off him. Now the Rays could be without Kiermaier and Margot in this one tonight after both left the game due to injury last night. ALL FORMATS
Spencer Strider vs SFG
If you guys have been reading my articles of late and following my cheat sheets, you know how much I love this kid and will be writing him up nearly every start. Strider was amazing against the Nats in his last start striking out 11 over 5.2 innings. He’s been great since he joined the rotation. In 4 starts, he has thrown 19.2 innings and has 32 strikeouts, allowing 6 earned runs,, The Giants are striking out a ton against RHP over the last 2 weeks (27%) and haven’t been hitting great lately. Strider has really shown that he has what it takes to throw at the MLB level and Fried just them down last night too. I love his price tonight. ALL FORMATS
Martin Perez vs PHI
Tough matchup for Perez against the Phillies here. They have 3 guys who have hit HR off him in their careers, but one of the guys who has 3 HR against him has not had a great season. The thing I really like about him is he has been able to neutralize Harper and Hoskins in this lineup. Perez has allowed just a .222 batting average at home this season and just under a strikeout per inning. He’s been really good this year and has shut down some good offenses. The Phillies haven’t been striking out a ton against LHP and have actually been pretty good against lefties of late, but with how Perez has looked all season, I want some pieces of him in GPPs. GPP
Kevin Gausman @ CWS
Right back to the well with Gausman here in this one. We saw a high scoring game last night between these two teams, and I don’t think that we will have the same result tonight. This is a good pitching matchup between Gausman and Cease tonight. Gausman really struggled in his last start against Baltimore which was frustrating. The White Sox haven’t been striking out a ton against RHP, just 22% in the last 2 weeks. Gausman though, has been amazing on the road this season, pitching to a 1.85 ERA over 6 starts, allowing just 8 ER in 39 innings while striking out 42 hitters. His home/road splits have been vastly different this season and he’s been much better on the road. Chicago has some ABs against him, but no one besides Harrison has more than 10 ABs against him. I do like him to bounce back here. GPP
Dylan Cease vs TOR
Cease has been really good for the White Sox all season. He has been racking up strikeouts for the White Sox this season as he has 100 K’s in 73 innings. Despite not being able to go deep in his last 3 games, he has 21 K’s in 14.1 innings. Toronto is a dangerous offense here and they don’t strikeout a whole lot, but there are still K’s to be had in this lineup. He’s been racking up strikeouts at home this year with 56 K’s in 37 innings at home, allowing just a .207 batting average against. I like his upside in tournaments just like Gausman. GPP
Sean Manaea vs ARI
Arizona has been better of late at the plate, but Manaea is a guy who can shut them down. He’s been really good against lefties this season, but has struggled with the HR ball against RHB. At home, his ERA is a bit inflated, but he’s only allowing a .226 batting average against in 5 starts. Manaea has allowed 10 HR so far this season in 73 innings and the walks are a bit up there. There still is major upside for him in this matchup against the Diamondbacks here. ALL FORMATS
Kyle Gibson @ TEX
Facing his former team here, Gibson has been pretty good at times this season. He has had his struggles on the road though which is a bit concerning for me here, but I wanted to give some more options. He was very efficient in his last start, but did allow 7 hits which hurts his DK scoring. Not a big strikeout guy, but can go deep into games too. I don’t expect a lot from him, but Texas does have some strikeouts in their lineup. GPP
Roansy Contreras vs CHC
This is a good matchup for the rookie Contreras against the Cubs. Chicago comes into this game with a 24.4% strikeout rate against RHP, while hitting just .230 and an ISO of .116. There are a ton of strikeouts to be had in this Cubs lineup. Contreras has struggled over his last 2 starts, allowing 6 ER total, but faced some of the NL’s best in ATL and STL. He has a bright future with the Pirates and will look to bounce back in a more favorable matchup against the Cubs here tonight. GPP
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Nestor Cortes Jr.
- Spencer Strider
- Sean Manaea
- Roansy Contreras
- Dylan Cease
- Kevin Gausman
- Martin Perez
- Kyle Gibson
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Houston Astros
- Boston Red Sox
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- New York Mets
DINGER OF THE DAY
Apr 28, 2022; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (46) hits a two run single against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the sixth inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Paul Goldschmidt
Goldy hasn’t hit a HR in 5 games but before that hit one in 3 straight. The Cardinals have a great matchup against Chi Chi Gonzalez here tonight. Goldy is also 4-11 with a HR against Gonzalez in his career and the Cards should be able to win this game rather easily tonight in what could be a big offensive game from the Cards.
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Featured Image:
Jun 15, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) watches the game between the Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros during the third inning at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
