Wow, I cannot believe we are already into the month of June!
MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…
EARLY MLB DFS Slate (6 games DK, FD split early and very early)
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***Fanduel broke up the early games with a ‘very early’ and ‘early’ slate. DraftKings has roped all 6 games into 1 slate. I will be covering all 6 games in this article!***
Carlos Carrasco vs WSH
There are some guys on this Washington team that have good numbers against Carrasco, but he’s been pretty good for the Mets this year. Carrasco comes into this game off back to back solid starts. He’s a bit expensive here though on DK. He has faced Washington twice this year already and has gone 12.1 innings with 10 K’s and has allowed just a .205 OBP. He’s been pretty good at home too, allowing just 1 home-run and striking out about a guy per inning. He isn’t a huge strikeout guy normally, but has been getting a few extra against the Nats this year. I like his upside here on this early slate today.
Jun 15, 2021; Denver, Colorado, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish (11) pitches in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Yu Darvish @ STL
The Cardinals are a tough matchup for anyone right now, but I have some interest in Darvish here. He’s looked good in pretty much all of his starts this year outside of 2 clunkers. He just shut down the Brewers and Phillies in his last 2 starts and has over 18 DK points in all but 3 starts this season so far. STL, outside of a few HR, don’t have great numbers against Darvish as a team they are hitting just .159 with a 35.5% strikeout rate against him. He has had his struggles on the road so far this year, but both of his really really bad starts have come on the road against the Giants and the Braves. Outside of that , he has done very well in his other road starts. Lefties are hitting under .200 against him this year, but righties are hitting a bit better. Over his last 2 starts he has 12 K’s in 13.2 innings allowing just 9 hits and 2 ER. I like his upside on this small slate, it’s risky, but could pay off.
Dakota Hudson vs SDP
Hudson is a riskier play here this afternoon, but he’s really cheap, especially on DraftKings here tonight. We have some weather issues in this game though so we need to really watch weather reports. Since this is an afternoon game, they may be willing to play after a delayed start. Hudson has been better at home so far this year, allowing just a .222 average and .287 wOBA compared to a .341 wOBA on the road. SDP hasn’t hit for much power against RHP in the last 2 weeks, under a .100 ISO. Hudson isn’t a big strikeout guy but he is a big groundball guy. If he can keep his 50%+ GB rate, then he could have a decent game here. There are some bats against him that are likely to do damage, but he’s cheap here.
Justin Verlander @ OAK
Verlander has a good bounce back spot after getting roughed up by the Mariners in his last start. He has struggled both times against Seattle this season so far. The good thing about this is Oakland isn’t that great of an offense. They come into this game with a 24.8% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks. On the road, he’s allowed 5 HR, but 4 of them were in the last start against Seattle. Outside of that he’s been really good on the road. Verlander is allowing a .173 average with a .241 wOBA on the road this year with a 26.7% strikeout rate. The upside for Verlander is massive here.
Kyle Wright @ ARI
Arizona comes into this game hitting with a ton of power lately, which has me concerned. Over the last 2 weeks against RHP, Arizona has a .246 ISO against RHP. The other side of things is they are striking out at a 23.4% clip which ranks middle of the pack in the last 2 weeks. Wright has been pretty good over his last 3 starts after a really bad start against Boston. Outside of 2 bad starts this year, he has over 20 DK points in 6 of his 9 starts this year. On the road he has allowed just 1 HR and has just over a K per inning. He has over a 25% strikeout rate to both sides of the plate so far this year and hasn’t walked a ton of hitters. I like his upside against an ARI team.
Carlos Rodon @ PHI (FANDUEL EARLY ONLY)
Rodon is only on the early slate for Fanduel tonight and not on the DraftKings early slate. Rodon hasn’t been as great of late after starting off the year so strong. The Phillies come into this game really struggling at the plate. They are 6th highest in K% in the last 2 weeks against lefties with a 23.6% K rate. Lefties are virtually hitting nothing against Rodon this season and he has a 40% strikeout rate against lefties. Righties he has a 29% strikeout rate against too. The K’s should be there for Rodon against the Phillies here late this afternoon.
Aaron Nola vs SFG (FANDUEL EARLY ONLY)
Nola at home is something we love to target. He has a tougher matchup against the Giants here though. Nola has been striking out a ton of hitters so far this year and has at least 7 K’s in 7 of his 10 starts on the season. San Fran has a lot of strikeouts in the bottom of their order too. In the last 2 weeks they have a 23.4% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting just .224. At home, hitters are hitting just .160 against him with a .273 wOBA and he has 37 K’s in 28.2 innings at home this season. Nola doesn’t walk a ton of hitter as he has just a 1.48 BB/9 on the season while getting almost 11 K/9 on the year.
**You’ll notice that I’m just covering the EARLY slates here in this article. You will need to join DFS Army as a VIP to get my MAIN slate picks as I am covering our Main Slate Cheat Sheets tonight for DFSA! **
PITCHER RANKINGS EARLY
- Justin Verlander
- Carlos Carrasco
- Kyle Wright
- Carlos Rodon (FD only)
- Yu Darvish
- Aaron Nola (FD only)
- Dakota Hudson
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Top MLB Stacks: EARLY DFS Slate
- Cleveland Guardians
- New York Mets
- Houston Astros
- Atlanta Braves
- Colorado Rockies
DINGER OF THE DAY EARLY
May 30, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) celebrates after hitting a home run during the fifth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Jose Ramirez
JoRam has been on fire for the Guardians of late. He is leading the MLB in RBI so far this season with 51. Over the last 7 days, he has 2 HR and 8 RBI while going 7-20 at the dish. Against the Royals this season he has 2 HR as well. He hasn’t hit a HR against Keller in his career yet, but I’m feeling it today with how he’s been lately.
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