MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Draftkings Fanduel Friday June 3rd, 2022 MAIN

Wow, I cannot believe we are already into the month of June!

 

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

 

Congrats to DFS Army long-time member “rockchalker2002” on a solid Sunday slate the other day! Keep it rolling!

You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…

 

MAIN MLB DFS Slate (12 games)

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Gerrit Cole vs DET

Cole has looked much better of late for the Yanks and they have a good matchup here this weekend against the Tigers. Cole comes into this game with Over 6 innings in 7 straight starts and has racked up 21 strikeouts over his last 2. After the tough start to the year, Cole has looked a lot better, aside from allowing 5 ER against Baltimore in a game where he still had 11 strikeouts. DET comes into this game with a 25% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks. The upside is there for him. ALL FORMATS

Zach Eflin vs LAA

Riskier GPP option for us tonight against the Angels. LAA just played a double header yesterday against the Yankees where they lost both games and were not able to muster up much offense. Eflin has some games where he pitches very well, then others where he allows 5+ runs. So, we never know what we are going to get from him on a daily basis. He’s been much better at home though this year, allowing just 4 ER in 23 innings with a K per inning and allowing hitters to hit just .160 against him. I like his upside against an Angels team struggling right now and striking out at a rate of 25.4% to RHP. GPP

Merrill Kelly @ PIT

I was going back and forth between Kelly and Brubaker to have in this article and I ended up going with Kelly. He has really struggled on the road so far this year, but I see some upside with him. PIT comes into this game with a 25% strikeout rate against RHP in the last couple of weeks and are hitting just .222 as a team. Looking a little deeper into his road numbers, I see that his ERA is much higher on the road, but he is actually allowing a lower batting average, lower OBP, lower SLG, and lower wOBA than at home. His strikeout numbers take a 9% drop on the road compared to at home though which is a little concerning. I do see the upside with him against a weaker PIT team though. GPP

Shane Bieber @ BAL

Baltimore has been a pain for a lot of teams this year. They aren’t really that good, but for some reason play well against better teams. On the road this season for Bieber, in 6 starts, he has a 2.17 ERA while striking out just under a hitter per inning. Outside of his clunker against Toronto 4 starts ago he has been really good of late. I like his upside here against Baltimore in a more pitchers park. ALL FORMATS

Yusei Kikuchi vs MIN

The Twins have been struggling lately against LHP and it’s apparent their power numbers are not there right now with their .044 ISO against LHP in the last couple of weeks. Kikuchi has been okay for the Jays, but nothing to ride home about. He does have at least 6 K’s in 4 of his last 5 starts, but has failed to go more than 6 innings in 7 of his 9 starts this year, so that is concerning. GPP

Shane McClanahan vs CWS

Shane O’ Mac has been lights out for the Rays all season this year. He has racked up 6 QS out of 10 starts this season and 4 straight. Tampa Bay’s offense has struggled a little of late, but he still has won 3 straight starts for them. His ability to rack up strikeouts is there. He’s a bit expensive, but for a team without their leadoff hitter, I have interest here for him. ALL FORMATS

Logan Gilbert @ TEX

Gilbert has been consistent for the Mariners this year. He has had a few starts where he fell 1 out shy of getting the Quailty Start. Gilbert has gone 7 innings in each of his last 3 starts though and those were against some good offenses in Houston, Boston, and Toronto. He has been pretty good on the road too, striking out a hitter per inning and allowing just a .181 batting average against. I do like his upside here against a weaker Texas team. ALL FORMATS

Joe Musgrove @ MIL

I like both sides of this game for pitching here. Both guys are expensive, but both have tremendous upside. MIL comes into this game striking out just 21% of the time against RHP, but Musgrove can get about a K per inning. He has been brilliant all season for the Padres and is averaging 42 FD points per start and 23 DK points per start. MIL has some success against him, with an OPS over 1.000 but they also have a 32% strikeout rate against him. GPP

Corbin Burnes vs SDP

Burnes comes at a bit of a discount from Musgrove here on both sites. He was able to rack up 11 strikeouts in his last start against a Cardinals team that hasn’t been striking out a lot against RHP. San Diego on the other hand is striking out 2% more than STL against RHP. They haven’t been hitting for a lot of power of late either with just a .112 ISO over the last 2 weeks against RHP. Burnes has the ability to rack up strikeouts and can go deep into games. He may allow a couple of runs, but can cancel that out with the amount of K’s he can rack up in a hurry. ALL FORMATS

Chad Kuhl vs ATL

Kuhl has been pretty good at home this year except for his start against the Giants where he allowed 5 ER in just 4.2 innings. The reason that I have some MME interest in Kuhl is that the Braves still are striking out a ton against RHP in the last 2 weeks. They have a 29.1% strikeout rate against RHP and just 5% walk rate in the last couple of weeks. Kuhl isn’t a massive strikeout guy and only has 8 K’s at home this season, but if he can find a way to limit the Braves offense and rack up some K’s he could have a decent start. GPP/MME ONLY

Nathan Eovaldi @ OAK

Eovaldi has been good for the Sox this year outside of a couple clunkers. He bounced back from his bad start against Houston and fired 2 straight great games for Boston. OAK has a 24.5% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and are hitting just .219 as a team. Boaton needs Eovaldi to have a good start here as they need to get back on the winning track. I like his price on both sites here as a viable option. ALL FORMATS

 

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1. Shane Bieber
2. Gerrit Cole
3. Corbin Burnes
4. Nathan Eovaldi
5. Shane McClanahan
6. Joe Musgrove
7. Logan Gilbert
8. Merrill Kelly
9. Zach Eflin
10. Yusei Kikuchi
11. Chad Kuhl

    

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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate

1.  New York Yankees
2. Boston Red Sox
3. Tampa Bay Rays
4. Cleveland Guardians
5. Houston Astros

 

DINGER OF THE DAY 

Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez has been really good for Houston of late. He’s been a guy that goes back and forth with hot and cold stretches. Alvarez is in the middle of one of his hot stretches though with 2 hit games in 4 straight, including a 2 HR game against the A’s. The matchup with Singer isn’t a great one, but one that Houston should be able to get runs against.

 

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