MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (15 games)
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Zac Gallen @ PHI
This is a risky play here tonight, but I have an interest because of how well he’s been throwing this year. Really just 1 bad start against the Royals where he allowed 6 ER. Outside of that, he has not allowed more than 2 ER in a start. The Phillies have been really good since firing their manager and aren’t striking out as much. Gallen isn’t a huge strikeout guy, but on the road, he has allowed just a .187 batting average against and .217 wOBA. He finds ways to get outs and doesn’t normally allow a ton of runs. If he can keep the ball in the park, I think he could have a respectable game tonight. GPP
Kyle Gibson vs ARI
Arizona comes into this game with a 25.8% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks, while hitting just .211. They are an offense that has a ton of power, but they have not been hitting for much average lately. Gibson has been really good at home too, getting just under a strikeout per inning and allowing just a .230 batting average against. He has a 27.5% strikeout rate at home this season too. He’s shown flashes of strikeout upside this year and this is a good matchup for him and a good price. ALL FORMATS
Luis Severino vs CHC
The Cubs have been better against RHP of late and not striking out much at all against righties. Severino does have 18 K’s over his last 2 starts and has made it 6+ innings in 4 straight starts. At home, Severino has a 42% strikeout rate, allowing just a .200 average and .266 wOBA. The Cubs have been better of late, especially their top half of the order, but if Severino can get a few extra strikeouts from the bottom of the order here at home, he could have another good start. After two bad starts from starters, the Yankees will need some length out of him to save the bullpen that has been taxed the last 2 games. ALL FORMATS
Jose Berrios @ DET
Berrios has a wonderful start against his former team last time out, striking out 13 hitters over 7 innings and allowing just 2 ER. The Tigers come into this game with a 26.2% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks (2nd highest in the MLB).They are hitting just .219 with an ISO of .109. Berrios has 3 decent starts over his last 4 starts with the one clunker against the Angels. My one concern here is that Berrios has really struggled on the road this season, allowing a .337 wOBA and .313 BAA. He does have a 44.8% strikeout rate on the road though. There is definitely upside in this matchup and he’s a solid price. ALL FORMATS
Triston McKenzie vs OAK
Good matchup here for McKenzie against Oakland and their 24.7% strikeout rate against RHP over the last 2 weeks. They are hitting just .205 with an ISO under .100 in that span. McKenzie has elite strikeout stuff, but he can struggle at times allowing hits. He’s a bit expensive here to use for cash games, but his massive strikeout ability brings him into play for GPPS. GPP
Jun 4, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (65) delivers against the Colorado Rockies in the first inning at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports
Spencer Strider vs PIT
Good matchup and good price on both sites. More used as an SP2 on DK and in GPPs on Fanduel. Strider has 2 starts this season and has thrown more pitches lately too. We have seen his AMAZING mustache, and his high strikeout ability. Between starting and coming out of the bullpen, he has 49 K’s in just 32.2 innings. Despite only throwing 4 and 4.1 innings in his last 2 starts, he has managed to rack up 12 strikeouts in those two. He did have a relief appearance back in May where he threw 4 innings and had 8 K’s. The strikeout ability is there and PIT comes into this game with a 25% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks. GPP
Glen Otto @ CWS
I’ve been going back and forth with Otto and if I wanted to write him up here. I decided to put him in as a GPP option. The White Sox are an offense that doesn’t usually strikeout much, but Otto isn’t a big strikeout guy anyways. What I do see is that the White Sox have just a .070 ISO against RHP over the last 2 weeks and are hitting .231 as a team. Otto has been a bit better on the road too, allowing hitters to just a .192 average against with a .232 wOBA and 35% strikeout rate on the road. There is upside here for him in tournaments. GPP
Luis Castillo @ STL
Castillo has been a bit better on the road this season than at home, but he’s been fairly good in both. He has allowed just a .197 average on the road and has allowed just 1 HR with a K per inning. St. Louis has been better against RHP, but against Castillo they have a .254 average with a 26% strikeout rate. There are some guys that have hit him up for home-runs, but those two also have a bunch of strikeouts against him. He had a great start last time out on the road against Boston, striking out 10 in 6 innings while allowing just 4 baserunners. Overall, this is a tough matchup for Castillo, but I do see some upside as he’s been better since his first 2 starts and has faced some good offenses in those last 4 starts (WSH, BOS, CHC, TOR). GPP
Joe Musgrove vs COL
Musgrove has been great this season for the Padres. He’s just under a strikeout per inning for them this year and has not allowed more than 2 ER in any start he has made this year. This Rockies roster can tend to struggle outside of Coors and they have just a ..221 average against him and .572 OPS, along with a 31.8% strikeout rate. I love his upside and his safety here. Despite only have a 23% strikeout rate against RHP, the Rockies have an ISO of just .117 against RHP in the last 2 weeks. ALL FORMATS
Walker Buehler @ SFG
Buehler has had some good outings against the Giants over his career. SFG is a dangerous offense and they have been really good lately, but still have a 23.8% strikeout rate against RHP and are hitting just .214. Their roster has just a .211 average against him with a 26% strikeout rate. In his career against the Giants he is 7-1 with a 2.55 ERA, tallying 70 K’s in 67 innings. Those are some pretty good numbers. At Oracle Park, Buehler is just as good, going 6-1 with a 3.35 ERA with 44 K’s over 40 innings. ALL FORMATS
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Joe Musgrove
- Walker Buehler
- Luis Severino
- Jose Berrios
- Kyle Gibson
- Zac Gallen
- Luis Castillo
- Trison McKenzie
- Spencer Strider
- Glen Otto
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Cincinnati Reds
- New York Mets (if Alonso and Marte are back)
- Atlanta Braves
- Seattle Mariners
DINGER OF THE DAY
Jun 6, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Seattle Mariners third baseman Eugenio Suarez (28) discusses a call with home plate umpire Chris Guccione during the fifth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Eugenio Suarez
Suarez is 5-10 off Rich Hill in his career with 2 HR and a double. He’s always been a lefty masher over his career and has a .222 ISO against LHP so far this season with a .355 wOBA. Even if he doesn’t hit a HR, I expect him to have a good game here tonight against the soft throwing lefty.
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