Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/9:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Max Fried
- Shane McClanahan
- Corbin Burnes
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves (-270)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Max Friend and the ATL bats should be in for a great day against the Pirates. Fried has been a reverse splits SP for much of his professional baseball career and that’s going to treat him well against this PIT lineup. The Braves bats woke up last night and I can see that continuing as they don’t have to travel to start a new series today.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Rays (-170)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. You know my love affair of McClanahan and while he meets a team that can mash against LHPs, I think he’s going to be in some GPP winning lineups. Mikolas is somebody that I expect to regress similar to what I thought of Cortes. The Rays aren’t an overly dangerous offense but they woke up last night and that could continue in this spot.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: Yandy Diaz
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Royals – Kris Bubic
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We get a juicy total to attack in KC but it’s between two teams that are highly volatile. I want to side on the offenses here and I think the Orioles are in the better spot because we know that Lyles can jump up and surprise teams. Mancini has been pretty hot at the plate for an extended period and that should continue in this one.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Hunter Dozier, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .082 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cincinnati Reds (-140)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We get another game with a very inviting total, between two teams that are far from consistent. With that being said, I really like mini-stacks at a minimum in this game. Votto has absolutely dominated Davies and Marte has made it tough on Mahle in their meetings.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
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Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins (-130)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Stephen Strasburg
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get to see Strasburg on an MLB mound again and I am pretty excited. When this guy is right, he’s one of the dominant pitchers in baseball. He did threw 6 shutout innings during his last rehab start and came out of a bullpen session on Monday feeling good. With that said, I would NOT be shocked to see him sit in the 4-5 inning range in his return because of all of his injuries. I think the top half of the Nationals lineup could be a sneaky stack.
WSH 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Miguel Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .153 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) @ Chicago White Sox
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
White Sox – Dylan Cease
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Anderson has been a big surprise for the Dodgers but he lands in the regression category for me, overall. With that being said, he’s certainly capable of continuing against a struggling team. Cease has massive upside but the match-up really sucks. I will have shares of both guys on the mound but I will also have some mini-stacks of the bats in this match-up.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels (-130)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Normally I love to pick on Pivetta in an attempt to get the games that he gives up 2-4 HRs but who the hell is going to hit them for LAA tonight? It might be Ohtani but the issue is that we can’t use Ohtani as a bat since he’s on the mound. We will have to read the updates on Trout to see if he’s going to miss another game or if he will try to give it a go (I assume he misses). We know that Ohtani can get gotten by bats so the Red Sox can be a low-owned GPP stack that pays off.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Duffy, Mike Trout (Day to day)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .050 over the last week.
New York Yankees (-210) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Twins – Dylan Bundy
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I just assume that Dylan Bundy is in a TON of trouble tonight. Judge is going to be my dinger of the day call and I believe I saw that his total bases prop is 2.5 at a lot of sportsbooks. That says all you need to know about the match-up for the powerful Yankees. The Twins got to Nestor last night but I just don’t see that happening against Cole tonight.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .277 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Gary Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
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Philadelphia Phillies @ Milwaukee Brewers (-170)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7.5. I know we have been picking on the Brewers with pitchers the last couple of days but I might be jumping off of that trend. Eflin is certainly capable of being strong but I kind of think their bats wake up a little bit against him. Burnes is a stud, obviously right? I know the Phillies offense has been solid but they do offer plenty of K upside and their projected team total is pretty low.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .222 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .105 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ San Francisco Giants (-270)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Austin Gomber
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I would not be shocked if Slater takes Gomber deep AND adds another hit or two in this one. Webb hasn’t been as elite as last season but he’s so good at home. The Colorado team total is extremely low so Webb needs to make our short list of SP options.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, CJ Cron
GPP Note: Team ISO of .171 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Austin Slater
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores, Darin Ruf
GPP Note: Team ISO of .212 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
A’s – James Kaprielian
Guardians – Konner Pilkington
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. This ballpark has been at the bottom of baseball in terms of HRs this season. Pilkington blew up in our faces a couple of starts ago and then he came out and dominated after that. He’s certainly capable of doing it again. Kaprielian is a guy that has it in him but I really don’t think he’s 100% healthy in his return yet because his K numbers just aren’t consistent.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Elvis Andrus
GPP Note: Team ISO of .100 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Yankees
- Baltimore Orioles
MLB Dinger of the Day – Aaron Judge, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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