Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/5:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Kevin Gausman
- Zac Gallen
- Framber Valdez
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Atlanta Braves (-150) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 12. We haven’t seen much for offense over the last two games here in Coors. Feltner has looked decent for the Rockies and there is some K upside for him. Morton hasn’t looked like his traditional self and it probably comes from breaking his leg last year when he was hit by that line drive.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Travis d’Arnaud
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randal Grichuk, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals (-140) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Cubs – Justin Steele
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. This is an interesting Sunday night game. I like both of the SPs overall but the Cubs have some plus BvP spots while the Cardinals can hit LHPs really well, especially at the top. We know how hot Goldschmidt has been while Arenado has destroyed LHPs for much of his career and Happ has hit Wainwright very well.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Tommy Edman, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: Ian Happ
4-star plays: Rafael Ortega, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians (-115) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Orioles – Undecided
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We are waiting on the Orioles SP announcement. Not going to have a ton of interest in full stacks but the game total intrigues me for a couple of mini-stacks.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds (-180)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Reds – Luis Castillo
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Castillo is capable of putting up an impressive performance but he could struggle with the top of the Nationals lineup, in this park. Corbin just isn’t the same guy any longer and the Reds are going to throw out a TON of RHBs against him. Farmer might be my favorite bat in this game.
WSH 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .190 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer, Albert Almora
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
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San Francisco Giants (-120) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Giants – Jakob Junis
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I am actually going to find myself on the Marlins when it comes to stacking in this game. I think they have the better match-up from a full 4 or 5-man stack standpoint. A couple of the SF bats do stand out from a one-off or mini-stack standpoint for me.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Evan Longoria, Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: Jesus Sanchez
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-230) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Royals – Jonathan Heasley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Astros let people down yesterday but I am happy about that. What that means is we get them at lower ownership today. Valdez will end up as one of my favorite SPs, I just hope Perez isn’t heating up. Alvarez is on my short list for Dinger of the Day calls.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .096 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-180)
Pitchers:
Mets – Trevor Williams
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. My gut call here is that the Dodgers bats wake up and knock Williams out within the first 3 innings. Urias flashes so much yet but he has not been consistent. I would not be shocked if this game ends up 9-5 or if it ends up 9-1. Betts should stay hot at the plate.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Eduardo Escobar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Cody Bellinger
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-140) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Gallen will end up at the top of my list. He’s capable of putting up a dominant performance, especially against an offense like the Pirates. I think that the D’Backs offense might end up as a sneaky stack option and they could get us 2-3 HRs.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: David Peralta, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
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Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers (-130)
Pitchers:
Mariners – George Kirby
Rangers – Martin Perez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Perez has been fantastic, allowing 1 earned run or less in 8 straight starts after beginning the year roughly. Kirby has been pretty solid during his first go at the MLB level. He has been more of a reverse split pitcher at the MLB level. At some point, I do expect a hiccup from Perez as he really isn’t this strong.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Luis Torrens, JP Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox @ Oakland Athletics (-120)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Rich Hill
A’s – Frankie Montas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Montas has allowed 2 earned or less in 8 of his 11 starts. He has massive upside but a less than great match-up. I think we could end up seeing a game that ends up with just 5 runs scored. I don’t have any desire to fully stack against either SP but I might try to locate a one-off HR.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano, Sean Murphy
GPP Note: Team ISO of .082 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees (-310)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Rony Garcia
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Garcia has given up a little more power to RHBs than LHBs this season and that’s not a good thing when facing Judge and Stanton. Montgomery should be in line for a strong performance against such a weak lineup. This game starts in about an hour (stupid early Sunday morning thing).
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop, Javier Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .115 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-115) @ Tampa Bay Rays
Pitchers:
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Both offenses in this game are ice cold. Giolito finds himself in a great spot while Yarbrough might end up respectable. I still really like the White Sox against LHPs with how their lineup comes together. I most likely won’t have much exposure to this game and the 7 total.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .105 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .090 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
Pitchers:
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8. I really like this game for some sneaky offense because the first look has me believing people aren’t going to target either SP heavily. Sandoval hasn’t given up an HR yet this season but that is going to change today. Trout will break out of his slump against an SP he has had success against.
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .131 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: JT Realmuto, Nick Castellanos
GPP Note: Team ISO of .217 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays (-210)
Pitchers:
Twins – Devin Smeltzer
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We just saw Berrios strike out roughly 84 hitters on Saturday and Gausman has been far better than Berrios this season. The one concern I have is that RHBs are hitting .310 against Gausman in 2022.
MIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .194 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .271 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
Pitchers:
Padres – Mike Clevinger
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .070 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Jace Peterson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Houston Astros
- Cincinnati Reds
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jared Walsh, LAA
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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