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Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 6/04:
Apr 26, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino (40) reacts as he walks off the field during the sixth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Detroit Tigers (+242) @ New York Yankees (-304)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll start in New York where the Yankees come in as massive favorites against Beau Brieske and company. Brieske has not been great to start the season and he won’t catch a break here traveling into a small ballpark against a great hitting team. I won’t have much interest in him here, with just a 14.1% strikeout rate, he doesn’t have the strikeout to make up for the risk in this one. Luis Severino will start for the Yankees and looks like a top SP option on an early slate. He has at least 19 DraftKings points in three straight games and gets an elite matchup here.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Willi Castro
GPP Note: Severino is the top pitcher on the early slate and one of the best pitching options on the day, so not much interest in the Tigers for me.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, DJ LeMahieu
GPP Note: The Yankees look like an awesome stack for the early slate.
St. Louis Cardinals (-) @ Chicago Cubs (-)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’re still waiting on implied run totals for this game, as is mostly the case the night before with Wrigley games. That said, it looks like the wind won’t be much of a factor here, if anything a boost to pitchers with it coming in around 7 mph from right field. However, keep an eye on the Weather Station for confirmation as we get closer to lock. Andre Pallante will start for the Cardinals in this one and has looked pretty solid in his first major league season. He’s coming off of a win against the Padres, but he’s not stretched out enough for me to want to go crazy on here. Mark Leiter or Matt Swarmer will take the mound for the Cubs as they work thru a double-header as well (obviously). I don’t love the matchup for either of them but they are probably my favorite SP2 options on this early slate due to their salaries and the other pitching options here.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Tommy Edman
GPP Note: I will definitely have some interest in whichever pitcher the Cubs send out there, but the Cardinals are still a strong leverage option at the very least.
CHC 5-star plays: Christopher Morel
4-star plays: Patrick Wisdom, Frank Schwindel
GPP Note: The Cubs would be my preferred stack in this one, but I’m not sure I want to go all that crazy on either of them… that said, on a short slate, you’ll have to play SOME bats.
Minnesota Twins (+135) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-160)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Dylan Bundy will get the start for the Twins in this one against a hot-hitting Blue Jays team. The one issue that Bundy can struggle with is giving up home runs, and that’s really the strength of this Toronto team, so it’s not exactly a great matchup for him. Jose Berrios gets a revenge game against his old team here and has struggled to start the season, particularly his last start. That said, I do expect his strikeout rate to positively regress back to his career norm from his 16% strikeout rate on the year. Not to mention, this Twins lineup is very watered down right now as they struggle with Covid issues… Berrios makes a lot of sense here.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Gary Sanchez, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: I will have some Berrios interest here, but he’s no stranger to getting blown up this season, so a Twins stack does make sense here.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer, Matt Chapman
GPP Note: I love targeting these big home run bats for the Jays as we pick on that home run issue that Bundy can struggle with.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Arizona Diamondbacks (+109) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-127)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Zach Davies will start for Arizona in a great matchup against a weak-hitting Pirates team in a pitcher’s park in Pittsburgh. All that said, Davies has been very hit or miss on the season. He has negative DraftKings points in two of his last three games but at least 12 DraftKings points in four of his last six outside of those two games. I do think he’s a fine enough SP2 option in this one. Roansy Contreras will start for the Pirates in a similarly nice situation. He has a big ceiling with a 25.4% strikeout rate on the season and the Diamondbacks don’t have a lineup that scares me in this ballpark, he makes sense here as well.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Christian Walker
GPP Note: I do think they make sense as a mini-stack, but Contreras provides a nice pitching option for me on this slate.
PIT 5-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Josh VanMeter
GPP Note: I just don’t think the Pirates have enough firepower to warrant stacking.
Cleveland Guardians (-129) @ Baltimore Orioles (+110)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Triston McKenzie will take the mound for Cleveland here and looks like a really nice pitching option on the main slate. This Baltimore ballpark is playing big since they moved the outfield wall back and McKenzie has been outstanding as of late with at least 21 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Tyler Wells will get the ball for Baltimore and is coming off a really nice start last time out against Boston. That being said, I think we can find better options on a big slate.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: This is my preferred stack of these two teams, but that’s not exactly saying much.
BAL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: I’ll have more interest in Tristan McKenzie than anyone on the Orioles.
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Seattle Mariners (+105) @ Texas Rangers (-123)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Marco Gonzales will take the mound for Seattle but just hasn’t shown the strikeout upside for me to want to consider him here. When I’m looking for a pitching option, strikeout rate is one of the first things I look at, and his 13.1% rate on the season just won’t cut it. Glenn Otto will start for Texas and has been pretty solid over his last two starts, I think we can do worse on this slate, but also think we can do better… I’ll be fine with whatever exposure I land to on him.
SEA 5-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Ty France
GPP Note: No issue with a mini-stack at the top of this order or some one-offs, but probably not a team that I’ll full-stack.
TEX 5-star plays: Marcus Semien
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Mitch Garver
GPP Note: Even though I won’t have much interest in Gonzales as a pitching option, I don’t really want to stack against him either due to his ability t avoid the big inning… that said, there are some nice one-off pieces on this team.
Boston Red Sox (-125) @ Oakland Athletics (+108)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
The Red Sox will send Nick Pivetta to the mound in this one and will likely be a guy I have some interest in here. The Athletics are a team that I’ve been targeting pitchers against all season long due to how weak their lineup is and that won’t stop here. He’s been really good as of late with at least 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five including four straight wins. The A’s will start Paul Blackburn and I’m just not sure I want to play a pitcher against this Boston lineup on a big slate. He has a sub-3.00 ERA on the year and has a nice floor, but I think we can do better on this slate.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Blackburn has been good enough on the season where I don’t really want to stack against him, but do think here are some solid one-off options.
OAK 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: This is probably the worst lineup in baseball, it’s a no from me dawg.
Chicago White Sox (+101) @ Tampa Bay Rays (-118)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
This one has a lower implied total as Dylan Cease and Drew Rasmussen have both pitched well as of late. Cease gets a nice matchup against a watered-down Rays lineup that will be without Brandon Lowe and Wander Franco, he’s an elite SP1 option on this main slate. Rasmussen had a rough go of it last time out but has seven strikeouts in his two previous games, and this White Sox lineup isn’t at full strength either. His price might be a bit high for me, but I won’t talk you off of him if you want to go there on this slate.
CHW 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Probably not a full-stack that I want to get to, but no issue with a mini-stack against Rasmussen.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena
GPP Note: With how banged up this Rays lineup is in a tough matchup, I don’t think we need to get too crazy here.
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San Franciso Giants (-108) @ Miami Marlins (-110)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Logan Webb will get the start for the Giants here and will look like a great pitching option in this one. He’s coming off of a great game against the Phillies and feels too cheap in this spot. Pablo Lopez will start in a similarly great spot against a below-average Giants offense at home in a pitcher’s park. Lopez has been great to start the season and has a 26.5% strikeout rate on the year, I’ll have no issue getting to him as an SP1 option in all formats.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Mike Yastrzemski, Joc Pederson
GPP Note: I just don’t see a need to stack against Lopez on this slate.
MIA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Similar to the Giants, I just don’t think we need to get cute here.
Houston Astros (-182) @ Kansas City Royals (+153)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Luis Garcia will start for the Astros in a nice spot against the Royals as a heavy favorite. He’s shown a nice ceiling this season and this Royals lineup is not good. Garcia has a 25.5% strikeout rate on the season and looks like a great spend-up SP2 option or a cheap SP1 option. Kris Bubic will get the ball for the Royals and has a 12+ ERA on the season which will make the Astros stack look great here.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Michael Brantley
GPP Note: The Astros look like a great stack on the main slate and will be a team I want to get to here.
KCR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez
GPP Note: I like Garcia a bit too much for the Royals to make sense for me.
Washington Nationals (+111) @ Cincinnati Reds (-132)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Erick Fedde will start for the Nats in a tough ballpark against the Reds. He’s been fairly solid on the season outside of a really bad start last time out. I don’t think we need to force it with him with all the other starting options we have on this slate. Tyler Mahle will take the mound for the Reds and is coming off of a really nice start against the Giants. However, he’s a guy that can struggle against right-handed power which the Nats don’t really have. I don’t like the ballpark, but I think we could make a case for Mahle here if you fall on him.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto
4-star plays: Nelson Cruz, Josh Bell
GPP Note: I don’t hate a mini-stack of the Nats against Mahle who is no stranger to the big inning.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Nick Senzel
GPP Note: I don’t love this offense but Fedde doesn’t exactly scare me off.
San Diego Padres (+115) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-134)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
This game features a matchup of two great young pitchers, as MacKenzie Gore gets the ball for the Padres and Aaron Ashby will start for the Brewers. Gore has at least 24 DraftKings points in back-to-back games while Ashby is coming off of the best start of his career. They both look like nice options here, neither offense really scares me. They both have at least a 27+% strikeout rate on the year.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Luke Voit
GPP Note: Probably just one-offs for me here, I think Ashby is the real deal.
MIL 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Tyrone Taylor, Keston Hiura, Christian Yelich, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Another case of just one-offs, they do have some lefty-mashers however.
Late MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Los Angeles Angels (+155) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-182)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Michael Lorenzen will start for the Angels here and gets an interesting matchup with a Phillies team that just fired their manager. They’re obviously scuffling but this lineup has a lot of firepower in it. I get taking the risk on the late slate with Lorenzen, but I think I’d rather take the shot with a Phillies stack. Zack Wheeler will start for the Phillies and looks like a nice option considering the form he’s in. He has at least 20 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, and if he can maneuver around Trout and Ohtani here he should be okay.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Jared Walsh
GPP Note: I do like Wheeler a good amount here, but it’s hard to ignore some of these Angels bats.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: I like this Phillies stack quite a bit especially on the late slate.
Atlanta Braves (-180) @ Colorado Rockies (+152)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
Onto Coors Field we go where we have a massive 11.8 implied run total. Spencer Strider will start for Atlanta and even though he’s shown some promise early on, I just don’t think we need to take the risk in this spot. Kyle Freeland will get the ball for the Rockies and will simply be an exclusion for me here against this hard-hitting Atlanta lineup. Both of these stacks are firmly in play on all slates.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies
GPP Note: They’re the top stack on the day, and I don’t think it’s all that close.
COL 5-star plays: Connor Joe, CJ Cron
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Brendan Rodgers, Brian Serven
GPP Note: I have no issue with this Rockies stack either against Strider.
New York Mets (+155) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-186)
Implied Run Totals:
Rundown:
We’ll round out the day with David Peterson getting the start for the Mets in a tough matchup with the Dodgers. I don’t think we need to go here with him, although he has been solid this season outside of his last start. Walker Buehler will start for the Dodgers and looks like a solid option on this late slate against this Mets lineup. He hasn’t shown that elite ceiling that we know he has in about a month, but we have limited options on this late slate, and will be a guy I’m overweight on.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: I don’t see a reason to stack against Buehler with the other options we have on this slate.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Justin Turner
GPP Note: The Dodgers look like a nice pivot off of Coors.
