Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/3:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Gerrit Cole
- Shane McClanahan
- Corbin Burnes
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Atlanta Braves (-175) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Braves – Max Fried
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. The Braves got it done and as I wrote in my notes for VIPs, I believe they go against the trend of struggles for teams in their 1st game of a series at Coors. I can see them staying hot again today but I also have a little crush on Kuhl and his arm talent. With that said, he hasn’t been dominant by any means but there are some Ks available to him. I am really interested in seeing how Fried handles Coors. I generally love using Rockies bats against LHPs but Fried is so good against RHBs.
ATL 5-star plays: Austin Riley
4-star plays: Marcell Ozuna, Ronald Acuna Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
St Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The wind is blowing in at Wrigley so we see just the 8 total. Mikolas has been trending down the last few starts while I would say Stroman has been trending up slightly. The big thing is the fact that a lot of the Cardinals bats are so-so right now, outside of Goldschmidt and an injured Gorman. I honestly would not be shocked if this game plays to the under today.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Gorman, Corey Dickerson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
Cleveland Guardians (-140) @ Baltimore Orioles
Pitchers:
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I would classify my interest in this game as mainly the SPs with a sprinkle of one-offs and mini-stacks. Bieber has flashed glimpses of his Cy Young self but then his Ks disappear. There’s a few BAL bats that are performing strong enough that Bieber isn’t a must jam in type play. Zimmermann can be decent and we know the overall CLE lineup hasn’t been very good. He just needs to figure out how to avoid Jose Ramirez.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Cincinnati Reds (-130)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Reds – Mike Minor
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. My initial thought was that I think both SPs are in a sneaky good, upside spot. The issue is that the total is approaching 10, in a small ball park, and both SPs have red flags. The issue for Gray is that he is getting destroyed by LHBs (though CIN doesn’t have a ton of them right now). Minor is coming off of the IL so we just don’t know what we are going to get as far as stuff and length.
WSH 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Cesar Hernandez, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer, Albert Almora
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
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San Francisco Giants (-150) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Giants – Alex Cobb
Marlins – Elieser Hernandez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I could see this game going under slightly or I could see there being a few HRs and we get an 11 run type game. I want the LHBs against Hernandez and the top of the order guys against Cobb. Crawford has been pretty bad this season but he’s had some success against Hernandez. Joc could definitely double-dong tonight and it wouldn’t shock me one bit.
SF 5-star plays: Joc Pederson
4-star plays: Brandon Crawford, Luis Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper, Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-135) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Astros – Jose Urquidy
Royals – Brady Singer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Urquidy has been really bad this season as both sides of the plate are hitting over .300 against him. Singer has been surprisingly strong while the Astros offense has actually been below average. I think both 5-Star plays below have the chance at a big time game in this one. I actually prefer to stack KC tonight over the Astros, which probably won’t end well for me.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: Bobby Witt Jr
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .111 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Los Angeles Dodgers (-160)
Pitchers:
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I will be honest and say I didn’t think I would see Tyler Anderson favored over Chris Bassitt by a decent amount. I do think Anderson has done some overachieving this season but that doesn’t mean he regresses tonight. My issue with this game is that if it goes over the total I feel like it’s because the Mets got to Anderson. I just don’t consider Bassitt the kind of guy that gets hit hard and blown up for 6 runs in a 7-2 loss here. Maybe I just think too highly of Bassitt overall.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Brandon Nimmo, Luis Guillorme
GPP Note: Team ISO of .175 over the last week.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Trea Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .230 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks (-115) @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Kelly had a bit of a rough stretch and even though he gave up 3 runs in his last start against the Dodgers, he was looking a lot better. He gets a plus match-up tonight and that should push his ownership up. Brubaker initially came out as the favorite but by the time I got to this game in my breakdown, it had flipped. I actually believe you can play both SPs in this one with some one-offs and maybe a mini ARI stack. Hayes has been swinging a really hot bat for the Pirates.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: David Peralta, Josh Rojas
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
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Seattle Mariners (-115) @ Texas Rangers
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Gilbert is coming off of his best start of May, where he dominated and shut down the Astros. I really could see that continuing in this one as the top of the Rangers lineup has gone cold again. Dunning is an arm that flashes potential but then runs into trouble. I think the Mariners bats are intriguing enough but I might prefer mini-stacks and one-offs more than a full 5 man stack on DK.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .205 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox (-160) @ Oakland Athletics
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
A’s – James Kaprielian
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I should probably have Eovaldi highly rated in this spot against such a weak lineup. The issue here is that Ks are suppressed in Oakland due to the large foul territory. Kapreilian was somebody that I loved using in 2021 but I just can’t get there yet in 2022. The Red Sox went from being on fire to being ice cold in what feels like an instant. I think a BOS mini-stack has a TON of upside tonight.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 over the last week.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .113 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees (-345)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Elvin Rodriguez
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Elvin Rodriguez has been decent but this doesn’t appear to be a very good match-up. It really depends on how LH heavy the Yankees lineup can get against him. Judge is always dangerous and Torres is rolling at the plate. Cole is in a great spot but that’s going to scare some people because they seem to think he struggles in spots he should smash.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Harold Castro
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Gleyber Torres
4-star plays: Aaron Judge, Matt Carpenter
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Tampa Bay Rays (-200)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Vince Velasquez
Rays – Shane McClanahan
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. McClanahan is always one of my favorite SPs and at this point, I am not afraid to use him against any team in the majors. I’ve made statements in discord chats that I believe he wins a Cy Young award at some point in his career. Velasquez is a guy I normally want to stack against but this TB offense is really cold right now so he might be a sneaky good SP2 for GPPs on DK.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .087 over the last week.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Philadelphia Phillies (-125)
Pitchers:
Angels – Chase Silseth
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8.5. I have been a big fan of Silseth to begin his MLB career but I think today might be the day to back off my exposure. I think a few of the PHI LHBs are in a plus spot and with the news Girardi was fired, we could see a bit of a rally from the entire lineup. Eflin is a guy that I don’t really trust and the Angels definitely have bats to get to him. He also could pick up 8-9 strikeouts while allowing 2-3 HRs.
LAA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .188 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Odubel Herrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .139 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays (-220)
Pitchers:
Twins – Chi Chi Gonzalez
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. With how the Twins lineup has had some struggles, I want to be on Kikuchi but I also hate the total approaching nearly 10. The Twins are dealing with so many SP injuries right now so they have to turn to Chi Chi. That’s not a good thing when facing a very RH heavy TOR lineup (Chi Chi has been a reverse splits guy). I think we see a few HRs from the Blue Jays tonight.
MIN 5-star plays: Gio Urshela
4-star plays: Gary Sanchez, Byron Buxton
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Teoscar Hernandez
4-star plays: Alejandro Kirk, Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .222 over the last week.
San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers (-150)
Pitchers:
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. This is the best SP match-up on the slate tonight. Burnes is the reigning Cy Young winner and obviously elite while Musgrove flashes ace potential. Neither offense scares me all that much but I guess the Brewers do hit plenty of HRs, which could be trouble for Musgrove. I would not be shocked to see a 2-1 game when the bullpens take over in the 8th.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .070 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Yelich, Jace Peterson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Angels
MLB Dinger of the Day – Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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