Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a 4/8 early/main split-slate, two Coors games, a bunch of average pitching matchups, and even some more weather concerns. Sounds like plenty to go over, even with fewer games, so let’s take a look at what we’re working with today!
A look at pitchers
Like I mentioned above, we have what looks to be a lot of “average” pitching matchups today. Most of the pitchers sport a carnage rating in the 4.5 to 5.5 range, and with a scale from 1 to 10, that’s about as average as it gets. There are at least some below and above that, so perhaps they can cover some bases for us. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early slate
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
We’ll kick things off with the Angels and Yankees, with Ohtani and Cortes on the mound. Like yesterday, we run into some weather concerns right off the bat, but it looks like they should at least start. As the day goes on though, it looks worse and worse, so keep an eye on the skies to see if using the starters here will be a wise choice or not.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout, Ward
GPP note – Though not the best matchup on the day, the righties are hitting lefties well and are at least worth a look for some smaller stacks.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Rizzo/Stanton
GPP note – Pretty much the same as above. I don’t see big stacks being overly useful against Ohtani, but you can at least take some one-offs or mini-stacks against him for some power upside.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Up next are the Twins and Tigers, with Archer and Faedo to start. We have some mild weather concerns here, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a delayed start (though I think they’ll be safer the later it gets, so the starters should be fine…should you choose to use them).
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 4 star plays – Buxton/Sanchez, Kepler
GPP note – A good spot for these guys, Faedo is allowing about the same xwOBA to both sides of the plate (.385). The lefties are getting power out of him, but it’s just a matter of time before the righties do too (so take some RvR bats here too).
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 4 star plays – Cabrera, Schoop
GPP note – On paper this is a decent spot for these guys, as Archer is giving up plenty to both sides. The catch here is that these guys aren’t hitting righties for a whole heck of a lot, not outside of a select few at least. You can stack here and hope for the best on this small slate.
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Kluber and the Rays take on Hearn and the Rangers next, and we get a decent 8.5 total with this one. Both teams are slated for 4+ runs, even with the pitching being in the Rays’ favor, so we’ll see if Vegas is right about the Rangers keeping up with Kluber’s potential.
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Diaz/Ramirez
GPP note – A nice spot for these bats, Hearn la allowing lots of contact and power to both sides of the plate and doesn’t have dominant strikeout stuff. This would be a good spot to try stacks of any size.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 3.5 star plays – Garcia/Seager, Calhoun
GPP note – While not the best target to attack, Kluber allows the occasional power (equal to both sides of the plate) and running a one-off or mini-stack against him wouldn’t be the worst thing you could do.
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
We’ll wrap up with early slate with Cueto and the White Sox taking on Manoah and the Blue Jays. Vegas is giving us an 8 to start with, though I suspect this one will see the under. While both offenses are potent, I think these starters are pitching well enough to navigate them for a while without allowing too much damage.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 3.5 star plays – Abreu, Robert
GPP note – Not a very good matchup for these guys, though Manoah is allowing some decent xwOBA to lefties. I don’t think that it’ll do much for these bats, but it’s at least worth mentioning.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Springer/Guerrero, Bichette
GPP note – Cueto hasn’t really allowed a whole lot, outside of a few doubles and a bunch of singles. That could really hurt the ceiling of this offense, so be careful with big stacks.
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Main slate
Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds
Moving on to the main slate, we’ll start with Adon and the Nationals taking on Ashcraft and the Reds. We get a healthy 9.5 total here, and that doesn’t surprise me considering the ballpark and starting pitching. This seems like a good spot to grab some non-Coors bats, though I don’t think they’ll fly completely under the radar.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 4 star plays – Soto/Bell, Cruz
GPP note – Ashcraft hasn’t allowed much in power yet, but he doesn’t get many strikeouts and is allowing solid contact. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to attack him here at this hitter-friendly ballpark.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto, Pham
GPP note – Adon allows plenty to both sides (more power to lefties), so again, this would be a good spot to attack. I could see some back-and-forth in this game.
San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins
Wood and the Giants take on Alcantara and the Marlins next, and I think this will be another game that sees the under. I do like a handful of bats from both teams, but I don’t see either side going bonkers against these starters. Maybe they’ll have better luck against the bullpen?
Giants 5 star plays – none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Yastrzemski/Pederson, LaStella/Crawford/Gonzalez
GPP note – A tough matchup, some of the lefties are hitting well and Alcantara does allow a little bit of power to them. I don’t hate one-offs and some small stacks, but I don’t like much more than that.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Soler, Aguilar
GPP note – Wood allows some decent contact and a little power to righties. While this isn’t exactly an offense to flock to in this spot, I think some small exposure could be useful.
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Up next we have Detmers and the Angels taking on Taillon and the Yankees. I think this game gets rained out, as it doesn’t look like things will let up until well after midnight. I could be wrong, so keep an eye on the skies, but I don’t feel too good about this one getting started.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout
GPP note – Same idea as their first game, they don’t get a very good matchup here but could be useful in small/medium-sized doses.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge, Rizzo/Stanton
GPP note – More of the same, except that Detmers has allowed 2 home runs in each of his last two games. Grab a few power bats here and see if that trend continues.
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
Flexen and the Mariners take on Lyles and the Orioles next, and unfortunately, we have the same weather concerns here as the previous game. Don’t play any of these guys unless you plan on keeping a close eye on the weather leading up to lock.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – Chisholm, France/Rodriguez
GPP note – An average-ish matchup, it’s hard for me to love huge stacks but I think some exposure here could be useful with the right bats.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 4 star plays – Santander, Mullins/Mancini
GPP note – These guys get the better matchup in this game, as Flexen is allowing plenty of power to both sides of the plate. He (somehow) didn’t allow any against Houston, but allowed 7 home runs in his 4 starts prior to that game. I wouldn’t be afraid to run some medium-sized stacks here. Odor and Urias look interesting, too.
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San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers
We’ll step away from the thunderboomers with our next matchup, featuring Manaea and the Padres taking on Houser and the Brewers. I’m a little surprised that Vegas opened with an 8.5 total, as I expected something closer to 7.5. It’ll be interesting to see where this goes before first pitch, but I have my money on the under.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Voit, Machado/Hosmer
GPP note – Overall not a great matchup for these guys, unless Houser allows his last outing to get to him again here. If that’s not the case today, I don’t see these guys doing much in big numbers, but some small stacks could work.
Brewers 5 star plays – none
Brewers 4 star plays – Yelich
GPP note – Manaea can get his strikeouts, but has been allowing contact and power to go with them. While these guys aren’t crushing lefties at the moment, I don’t think hedging here would be a terrible idea (or if you decide to fade these guys, consider going heavier on your Manaea exposure since he does have a high ceiling).
St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
We get a rivalry game next, with Liberatore and the Cardinals taking on Thompson and the Cubs. Considering both matchups, I could see these two taking big swings at each other and running up the score a bit, so we’ll see if they can live up to the hype up of the rivalry narrative.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Cardinals 4 star plays – Goldschmit/Arenado
GPP note – Thompson is allowing some decent reverse splits numbers, making the two above a little more appealing than they already were (or any other RHB that starts).
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras, Wisdom/Happ, Schwindel
GPP note – Liberatore has shown both the good and the bad in his pitching, but unfortunately it’s a small sample size. I think some hedging could be useful, but if you aren’t interested in taking him anywhere, maybe run a few extra stacks here in case he has another rough outing. These guys are hitting lefties for power, after all.
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
Next up we have the Braves and Rockies, with Anderson and Gomber to face off. It’s bad enough that this 8-game slate will likely be trimmed down to 6 games, and now we have a Coors game with soft pitching and a lot of powerful bats. I don’t recommend putting all of your eggs in one chalky basket, but it sure is temping, huh?
Braves 5 star plays – Acuna
Braves 4 star plays – Ozuna/Riley, Albies
GPP note – An obvious recipe for success, get all the chalky stacks your heart desires. Or you can fade them and hope their strikeout issues keep them from getting some big hits.
Rockies 5 star plays – Blackmon
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron/McMahon
GPP note – Same as above. If you aren’t comfortable fading Coors, consider some wrap-around stacks or something else to be a little different than the masses.
New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers
We’ll wrap up the day with the Mets and Dodgers, with Walker and Gonsolin on the mound. Overall this matchup favors the Dodgers, but after these last few games, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Mets take this one. Still, I don’t see these guys going down without a fight, and Walker has the occasional dud, so they should still have some opportunities.
Mets 5 star plays – none
Mets 4 star plays – Lindor, McNeil/Nimmo, Alonso/Marte
GPP note – Though a tough matchup for these guys, they are hitting righties pretty well. I think an argument could be made for either side, so if you can’t decide, consider hedging.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Freeman
Dodgers 4 star plays – Betts, Turner/Turner
GPP note – Walker doesn’t allow many home runs (only 2 this season, both in the same game), but his strikeout rate is low and he does allow some decent power to lefties. They need a bounce-back game, so you could stack for that reason alone.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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