Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/28:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Carlos Rodon
- JP Sears
- Brandon Woodruff
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals (-125)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Jose Quintana
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. For a game with such a strong total I really don’t love it from any angle. We get two very lackluster teams who are taking on pitchers that can struggle. The issue is which side will win out in that equation? I think we can use guys as one-off options because there are certainly a few plus spots for hitters.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Michael Chavis
GPP Note: Team ISO of .210 over the last week.
WAS 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays (-120)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Brandon Woodruff
Rays – Shane Baz
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I love this pitching match-up, even with both offenses flashing some power upside recently. Woodruff looked strong in his rehab start and now faces a pretty weak TB lineup while Baz has flashed elite upside. I do have some worries about Baz against MIL as a number of the Brewers have multiple HRs over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .204 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Isaac Paredes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies (-120)
Pitchers:
Braves – Charlie Morton
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Philadelphia pitching staff is going to have to be spectacular with the loss of Bryce Harper’s production. Wheeler is certainly an elite arm as he came into the season as one of the favorites for the Cy Young award. We know that ATL can strike out a decent amount and the lineup weakens if Acuna is out yet. Morton hasn’t been great this season but the loss of Harper really weakens this PHI lineup.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Travis d’Arnaud, Ronald Acuna Jr (DTD)
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Odubel Herrera
4-star plays: Alec Bohm
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
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Miami Marlins @ St Louis Cardinals (-160)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I like the way that STL is starting to swing the bat again and they take on an LHP that has had his struggles at the MLB level. Hudson should be a decent option for us as the Marlins are pretty lackluster offensively. I wouldn’t be shocked if one of the Cardinals ends up as my Dinger call (still debating a handful of options).
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Rojas, Jon Berti
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Juan Yepez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .219 over the last week.
San Diego Padres (-120) @ Arizona D’Backs
Pitchers:
Padres – Sean Manaea
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I’ve always been a Gallen believer so I am inclined to lean his way in this match-up. Manaea has been better on the road so far in 2022 and the D’Backs lack a ton of upside against LHPs. Hosmer has had strong success against Gallen but the rest of the lineup is pretty blah overall. I can definitely see us using a 1B as a one-off in this game which means we should be interested in both SPs.
SD 5-star plays: Eric Hosmer
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Los Angeles Angels (-150)
Pitchers:
White Sox – Johnny Cueto
Angels – Chase Silseth
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Get ready to call me insane but I might be on the Chase Silseth train tonight. He has been really strong against RHBs at the MLB level. He has had huge issues with LHBs but the White Sox lack much from the left side. Cueto keeps surprising me but at some point, he’s going to allow 7 runs in 4 innings. The issue is that I don’t think the Angels lineup is deep enough for that to happen without it being the top half doing a ton of damage.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Gavin Sheets
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
Houston Astros (-125) @ New York Mets
Pitchers:
Astros – Framber Valdez
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. The Astros have a handful of guys who have had success against Carrasco in their careers and the team is swinging it pretty well from a power perspective. The Mets are always dangerous but I feel like they should be going into an offensive slump at some point. I don’t think I want to gamble with much exposure to the SPs but I can see a route to a strong Valdez performance.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last week.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mark Canha, Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (-135)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We should see some offense in this match-up tonight. I love the way that TOR lines up against Wacha and we know that Boston can get to Stripling. We could see 13-15 runs scored in Toronto and I would not be shocked. I prefer most of the RHBs in this match-up but I am never avoiding a guy like Devers.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette
4-star plays: George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .222 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs (-120)
Pitchers:
Reds – Luis Castillo
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The wind is blowing out to LF in Wrigley but it’s not some massive amount and the weather is just slightly favorable to the bats. I really like both SPs from a GPP standpoint but I can also see why we might want to look at mini-stacks in this game. Contreras and Happ are going to be one of my favorite GPP duos tonight.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Senzel, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .152 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: Willson Contreras
4-star plays: Ian Happ
GPP Note: Team ISO of .148 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins (EVEN) @ Cleveland Guardians – Game 1
Pitchers:
Twins – Devin Smeltzer
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We get an interesting double-header today as both games are basically a pick-em. I love the way the Twins are swinging the bats overall so I have to lean that way in this one. Correa has definitely found a way to heat up and at the right time. Ramirez has cooled a bit but he’s always dangerous while guys like Reyes, Rosario, and Gimenez have been swinging it well.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Alex Kirilloff, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
Minnesota Twins (EVEN) @ Cleveland Guardians – Game 2
Pitchers:
Twins – Josh Winder
Guardians – Konner Pilkington
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get an interesting double-header today as both games are basically a pick-em. I love the way the Twins are swinging the bats overall so I have to lean that way in this one. Correa has definitely found a way to heat up and at the right time. Ramirez has cooled a bit but he’s always dangerous while guys like Reyes, Rosario, and Gimenez have been swinging it well. Winder intrigues me a lot as he has flashed really impressive stuff at the MLB level this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Kyle Garlick
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Amed Rosario, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-215) @ Colorado Rockies
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 11. The Dodgers let down the DFS world last night, getting shutout in Coors by Chad Kuhl. That burning might cause people to think that Freeland is usable since many would consider him a better pitcher than Kuhl. I think we could see LA with 7+ runs tonight and I want to be on that train. There are a few COL bats who have had success against Kershaw in their careers but I don’t really want to stack against him.
LAD 5-star plays: Will Smith, Trea Turner
4-star plays: Justin Turner, Cody Bellinger
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Kris Bryant, Garrett Hampson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .143 over the last week.
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Oakland A’s @ New York Yankees (-185)
Pitchers:
A’s – Frankie Montas
Yankees – JP Sears
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Sears is going to find his way up my list tonight which has me wondering if people are going to reference Montgomery’s struggles last night against Oakland. We know that this OAK lineup is really weak overall and Sears has been great at all levels this season. There are a few NYY bats who have had success against Montas so I will be stacking them but more so in mini-stacks.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .092 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Seattle Mariners (-170)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. My initial thought was going to be all about Robbie Ray and then I looked at their BvP against him. I think Ray is going to be fairly popular overall but that means I will have to go underweight compared to the field. Kremer has looked like a completely different SP this season and I am not sure what to do with him. The Seattle offense didn’t show up last night, in a spot that I thought they would.
BAL 5-star plays: Austin Hays
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .224 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesse Winker, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants (-200)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Skubal has had a rough go of things in June but I could see him turn it around a bit tonight. The Giants do have a few guys who hit LHPs with power but they are geared more towards dominating RHPs. Rodon is going to be extremely popular and I can’t argue against it. Much of the Detroit lineup has been pretty bad this season. Baez has been hot at the plate and Miggy has dominated against Rodon.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera, Javy Baez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Evan Longoria
4-star plays: Austin Slater, Darin Ruf
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last week.
Texas Rangers (-150) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
Royals – Jonathan Heasley
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I can see the Rangers doing damage against tonight, especially with their LHBs against Heasley. The Royals lost Salvador Perez for a while and now they traded their hottest hitter (Santana) so maybe Jon Gray is in play but I have a hard time trusting him. I think the Witt-Benintendi mini-stack is really interesting as a low-owned combo to make our chalkier builds a little different.
TEX 5-star plays: Nate Lowe
4-star plays: Corey Seager, Kole Calhoun
GPP Note: Team ISO of .176 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bobby Witt, Andrew Benintendi
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- St Louis Cardinals
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bo Bichette, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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