Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/25:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Gerrit Cole
- Chris Bassitt
- Patrick Sandoval
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Washington Nationals @ Texas Rangers (-120)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Rangers – Matt Bush
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We are getting an opener for the Rangers and will need to learn of their plans to follow Bush. I have seen speculation that it might be Allard. The Rangers let us down Friday night and that might bring Gray into play. I want to go back to the Rangers’ bats for GPP purposes.
WAS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Bell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
TEX 5-star plays: Corey Seager
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .189 over the last week.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Tampa Bay Rays (-190)
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Rays – Corey Kluber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Pirates are putting the ball into play with authority right now. Kluber should be able to control that I would imagine. The Rays are hitting a few HRs but the lineup has become a real weak spot overall. I actually think we can use both SPs on this game and somewhat confidently.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Oneil Cruz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .247 over the last week.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Francisco Mejia, Josh Lowe
GPP Note: Team ISO of .155 over the last week.
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres (-120)
Pitchers:
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Phillies’ bats are struggling a ton right now but I have a hard time trusting Blake Snell these days. San Diego had been swinging it well but that seems to have come to an end so we actually might see another pitcher’s duel on Saturday evening.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .065 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jake Cronenworth, Austin Nola
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
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New York Mets (-160) @ Miami Marlins
Pitchers:
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I feel like Bassitt has a shot at being the top dog at the SP position today. The Marlins lost Rojas and Chisholm last night and they happen to be the team’s hottest hitters. I think the Mets could put up some runs with how well Lindor is swinging it at the moment.
NYM 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Sanchez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Arizona D’Backs (-150)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Alex Faedo
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Tigers’ bats have been heating up while Javy Baez has been absolutely scorching over the last week plus. On the other side, the D’Backs bats have been pretty cold outside of the power of Walker. At this point, Baez is near the top of my Dinger of the Day list.
DET 5-star plays: Javy Baez
4-star plays: Riley Greene, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels (-125)
Pitchers:
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Ty France is a huge loss to the IL for the Mariners. That bat missing will help push Sandoval to near the top of my SP options. A couple of the LAA bats have hit Gilbert decently but I don’t think I want to do anything more than mini-stacks from either side of this game.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Jared Walsh, Taylor Ward
GPP Note: Team ISO of .170 over the last week.
Houston Astros @ New York Yankees (-160)
Pitchers:
Astros – Cristian Javier
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get two very potent offenses going up against two pitchers who can rack up strikeouts. Obviously, Cole is far more advanced than Javier is as far as being dominant. We know that both offenses have been flashing a ton of power over the last week and really, all season. Yordan just keeps hitting HRs and he does have 2 of them against Cole.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Alex Bregman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .228 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge
GPP Note: Team ISO of .216 over the last week.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Milwaukee Brewers (-160)
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Yusei Kikuchi
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. If you have followed my writings you will understand why I am in a tough spot in this game. You know that I hate the Milwaukee offense and consider them to be overrated on that side but you also know that I LOVE to pick on Kikuchi whenever he is on the mound. You will have to check out the notes on-site to see what I want to do with this game!
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Cavan Biggio, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .222 over the last week.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Andrew McCutchen
GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals (-190)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Adrian Sampson
Cardinals – Miles Mikolas
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Cardinals have a strong team total yet again and I will be doubling down after they let me down Friday night. There are a couple of guys in this game with very strong BvP but Bader is definitely the strongest. I generally like to stack against Mikolas and that hasn’t been overly profitable this season.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ian Happ, Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .126 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
4-star plays: Nolan Arenado, Harrison Bader
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians (-160)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Josh Winckowski
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I really do not know what to do with this game. Bieber hasn’t been as dominant as he was just a couple of years ago. We know how dangerous the Red Sox can be but do we really want to stack against Bieber? I don’t love the idea of stacking the Guardians either, despite facing Winckowski.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Steven Kwan, Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .160 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves (-160)
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Mitch White
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Normally I love using Max Fried but this game is all about the offenses for me. The Dodgers are rolling, especially at the top while the Braves are also swinging it pretty well from a power standpoint. Don’t be afraid to game stack this one multiple way.
LAD 5-star plays: Freddie Freeman
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Will Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Dansby Swanson
4-star plays: Michael Harris, Matt Olson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .192 over the last week.
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Oakland A’s @ Kansas City Royals (-160)
Pitchers:
A’s – Jared Koenig
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. Talk about a conundrum with this game. We get a very high total, in fact, the top total on the board as of now. The issue is that neither offense is good, at all. The Royals just lost their biggest threat, Perez, for up to about 2 months. I think we can pick and choose one-offs in this game but I don’t feel good about stacking.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .080 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Carlos Santana, Edward Olivares
GPP Note: Team ISO of .186 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Chicago White Sox (-185)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Spenser Watkins
White Sox – Lance Lynn
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The theme of the day is to go back to the teams that let us down on Friday night. The White Sox are one of those teams. I am all about Lynn as I think he’s cheap enough that I can live with whatever the outcome is. The Orioles have certainly shown offensive firepower but I will be staying on the White Sox side.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adley Rutschman, Anthony Santander
GPP Note: Team ISO of .166 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Andrew Vaughn, Luis Robert
4-star plays: Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last week.
Cincinnati Reds @ San Francisco Giants (-245)
Pitchers:
Reds – Mike Minor
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I will be on the Giants a bit in this one, they have some RHBs that are swinging it well and/or hit LHPs extremely well. I have no desire to attack Logan Webb with an offense like the Reds, in this ballpark.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Donovan Solano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Evan Longoria
4-star plays: Darin Ruf, Austin Slater
GPP Note: Team ISO of .159 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins (-190)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Antonio Senzatela
Twins – Chris Archer
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Last night’s match-up was a total dud and to stay on-brand for the day, I will be going right back to this match-up for runs. I could not believe how terrible the hitting was in last night’s game. I hope Buxton returns today because he seems to explode after having a handful of days off.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron, Ryan McMahon
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .196 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Byron Buxton, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .184 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Atlanta Braves
- San Diego Padres
- Philadelphia Phillies
MLB Dinger of the Day – Javy Baez, Detroit
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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