Hello again everybody, and welcome to today’s MLB Full Count breakdown! I’m nillyJay and I run the carnage report and DraftKings tiers tools. I also coach NASCAR, so be sure to check us out every weekend over there, too. We get a split-slate today, though unfortunately mother nature is still looming around several of our games today. Hopefully we don’t lose any of them, but this would certainly be another good day to keep an eye on the skies. Otherwise, as always, there’s plenty to go over today, so lets dive right in!
A look at pitchers
We have another wide range of options today, though we do have than are leaning more towards the “below average” and “bad” matchups for our pitchers. I think a few of them are in for some rough outings, but we do at least have some that are in rather favorable spots, so our cash games and tournaments should both be covered. As always be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in.
Early slates
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians
We’ll start the day with my Royals taking on the Guardians, with Keller and Pilkington to get the start. Unfortunately we run right into some potential weather issues here, so be sure you’re paying attention to the forecast should you decide to use any of these players. I recommend you do, as there are a few good spots to attack on both sides.
Royals 5 star plays – none
Royals 4 star plays – Merrifield/Perez/Witt
GPP note – Pilkington is allowing high xwOBA to righties, though not much in terms of power. If this trend continues, some big hits should be coming, but it’s just a matter of when. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to get some exposure here in case they get to him.
Guardians 5 star plays – none
Guardians 4 star plays – Ramirez, Gimenez
GPP note – Keller can have decent outings but also some pretty rough ones (he’s coming off of one such performance). Lefties have the advantage against him, and his strikeout rate is pretty low. It’s never a bad idea to attack the KC pitching.
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
Next up we have Lee and the Nationals taking on Carrasco and the Mets. Lee will be making his MLB debut, so it’s anyone’s guess as to how that will go, but Carrasco has been solid for most of the season. I like the Mets’ chances better here, but who knows, maybe Lee will shock the baseball world today.
Nationals 5 star plays – none
Nationals 3.5 star plays – Soto/Bell, Cruz
GPP note – A tough matchup against Carrasco, the usual Soto/Bell duo is at least worth a look. Cruz is too for his strong BvP against him (10 for 21 with 5 homers).
Mets 5 star plays – Lindor
Mets 4 star plays – Alonso/Marte, Canha
GPP note – They’ll get a pitcher making his MLB debut, so it’s never a bad idea to take some shots against him in case he has the jitters. The righties here are hitting lefties well and this team’s strikeout rate is rather low.
San Diego Padres at St Louis Cardinals
Darvish and the Padres take on Hudson and the Cardinals next, another game with some potential weather issues. Though things do look a little better here, it doesn’t take much to lose our starting pitchers, so keep an eye on this one since Darvish always gets ownership.
Padres 5 star plays – none
Padres 4 star plays – Machado, Hosmer/Voit
GPP note – This team isn’t hitting righties all that well, but Hudson is allowing high xwOBA to both sides of the plate and has a low strikeout rate. That could help wake them up, so consider taking some shots here.
Cardinals 5 star plays – none
Carinals 3.5 star plays – Goldschmidt/Arenado
GPP note – A potentially bad matchup against Darvish (potentially good too, depending on which version of him shows up), this team’s best two bats do have some experience and success against him. If nothing else, they’re in play here.
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies
Next up we get one of our Coors games, with Rogers and the Marlins taking on Senzatela and the Rockies. It looks like the storms have passed and we should get two uninterrupted games, so you can stack to your heart’s desire with everybody else.
Marlins 5 star plays – none
Marlins 4 star plays – Chisholm, Soler/Aguilar
GPP note – Attacking Senzatela at Coors is never a bad idea, regardless of who is facing him. They won’t be sneaky, but there are at least several cheap options to choose from.
Rockies 5 star plays – none
Rockies 4 star plays – Cron/Blackmon, Joe/McMahon, Daza
GPP note – A good spot for the righties, it’s Coors, so you don’t really need much of a reason to stack here.
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Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics
We’ll head out west for our next game, with Verlander and the Astros taking on Irvin and the Athletics. Houston should have the advantage here, but with good pitching on both sides, I’m thinking we get a close lower-scoring game here.
Astros 5 star plays – none
Astros 3.5 star plays – Altuve/Bregman, Alvarez
GPP note – Irvin doesn’t put up big scores but he’s good at getting by without giving up much, so I worry about the upside here. Maybe some smaller stacks could work, but I don’t know about big ones.
Athletics 5 star plays – none
Athletics 3.5 star plays – Brown
GPP note – I’d imagine Verlander is pretty upset about getting dinged around by the Mariners, so I expect him to take it out on these guys. Stack at your own risk.
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Wright and the Braves take on Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks next, and even though we do have a high-dollar pitcher here, I think there are some points to consider for both offenses. Definitely hedge if you decide to stack against Wright though, as he has flashed upside on more than one occasion.
Braves 5 star plays – none
Braves 4 star plays – Acuna, Riley/Ozuna
GPP note – Though these guys like to strikeout, Bumgarner’s K rate is fairly low, so it could help them out here. It might help him too though, so don’t be afraid to hedge a little. Aside from that, righties have the power advantage though he allows some power to lefties, too.
Diamondbacks 5 star plays – none
Diamondbacks 4 star plays – Varsho/Peralta/Smith, Walker
GPP note – Though not a great matchup against Wright, these guys are hitting righties pretty well right now, so some contrarian stacks are worth a look.
San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
We’ll round out the early games with Rodon and the Giants taking on Nola and the Phillies. We have more weather concerns here, though as of right now it looks like a delayed start would be more likely than a mid-game suspension. That would certainly be ideal, as we do have two high-upside pitchers going at it here. However, if it looks to start on time with the weather still lurking, perhaps taking the bats would be the play instead, as they would get easier matchups with these starters out of the way.
Giants 5 star plays -none
Giants 3.5 star plays – Yastrzemski, Pederson
GPP note – Bad matchup against Nola, though he is allowing .228 ISO to righties over the past month or so. While he does have a strong strikeout rate, these guys are good at putting the ball into play, so they might be able to limit his ceiling too.
Phillies 5 star plays – none
Phillies 4 star plays – Harper, Schwarber/Castellanos/Hoskins
GPP note – Not a great matchup here either, though Rodon’s strikeout rate is a bit lower than Nola’s. Quite a few of these guys are hitting lefties for power, so small/medium-sized stacks aren’t out of the question.
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Main slate
Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles
Switching gears to the main slate, we start with Ray and the Mariners taking on Bradish and the Orioles. This looks like a pretty good spot for the visitors, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them do some more damage here while their bats remain hot.
Mariners 5 star plays – none
Mariners 4 star plays – France, Rodriguez/Suarez
GPP note – Bradish is allowing a ton to righties, so be sure to attack him from that side.
Orioles 5 star plays – none
Orioles 3.5 star plays – Santander
GPP note – It’s not a very good matchup, though Ray is allowing some power to both sides of the plate. One-offs or mini-stacks could be useful in moderation.
Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Next up we have Detmers and the Angels taking on Cortes and the Angels. This game comes complete with big-name bats, solid pitching, and some nasty looking weather. Let’s hope they play, but don’t be surprised if they don’t.
Angels 5 star plays – none
Angels 4 star plays – Trout/Ohtani, Ward
GPP note – Not a great matchup for these guys, though the big bats are hitting lefties just fine. I don’t love big stacks, but I like smaller ones.
Yankees 5 star plays – none
Yankees 4 star plays – Judge/Stanton, Rizzo
GPP note – This is a favorable matchup for the Yanks’ offense, especially the lefties as Detmers allows more power to them than to righties. Get some exposure to any lefties that start for some lower-owned upside.
Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Kopech and the White Sox take on Ryu and the Blue Jays next, and at first glance I’m liking the visitors here, too. Kopech has been a tough customer and I think he’ll be able to navigate this lineup without getting blown up, and Ryu hasn’t really shown any of his more dominant stuff this season.
White Sox 5 star plays – none
White Sox 4 star plays – Robert/Abreu/Vaughn
GPP note – Ryu hasn’t quite settled in with his return, so taking some shots at him isn’t a bad idea. He’s allowing more power to righties, and there are plenty to choose from here.
Blue Jays 5 star plays – none
Blue Jays 3.5 star plays – Springer
GPP note – Kopech has been very stingy to righties, and unfortunately those are the only bats on this offense doing much against right-handed pitching right now. I can’t get behind big stacks, but maybe some small ones could be useful.
Cincinnati Reds at Boston Red Sox
Another game with some nasty looking weather in the forecast, Greene and the Reds take on Whitlock and the Red Sox in our next game. If they do play, I could see some back-and-forth here, though that may depend mostly on which version of Greene shows up. Mother nature may have the final say though, so keep a close eye on this one.
Reds 5 star plays – none
Reds 4 star plays – Votto/Naquin, Moustakas/Stephenson/Pham
GPP note – Whitlock started the season off well enough, but his xwOBA and hits allowed have been on the rise. He allows power to both sides of the plate, so consider some stacks here in case he has a dud of an outing.
Red Sox 5 star plays – none
Red Sox 4 star plays – Devers/Martinez, Story
GPP note – A volatile pitcher, Greene can rack up some strikeouts but he has some big statcast numbers against too – and it’s coming from both sides of the plate. This looks to be a good hedge spot since both sides have a high ceiling in this matchup.
Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers
Ober and the Twins take on Skubal and the Tigers next, and I think we have another ‘under’ game in the making here. Skubal has been tough and could silence this offense, and Ober isn’t exactly facing an All-Star team here. The pitchers are certainly more interesting to me than the offenses in this one.
Twins 5 star plays – none
Twins 3.5 star plays – Buxton
GPP note – Overall this is a bit of a rough matchup for these guys, so maybe don’t go all out with big stacks here. Skubal hasn’t been allowing much to either side of the plate and his strikeout rate is solid, so tread lightly.
Tigers 5 star plays – none
Tigers 3.5 star plays – Cabrera
GPP note – This isn’t a very favorable matchup either, so I could see this game going the under, which is bad news for both offenses. I’m not interested in much more than some one-offs here.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Moving on we have Alexander and the Brewers taking on Hendricks and the Cubs. Another MLB debut, Alexander will kick off his big-league debut at Wrigley field (which is pretty cool I thnk), and lucky for him this isn’t one of the more potent Cubs’ offenses we’ve seen in recent years.
Brewers 5 star plays – Yelich
Brewers 4 star plays – Tellez, Wong. Taylor
GPP note – Hendricks’ struggles continue and until we see him revert back to his “game manager” form, I think attacking him is the way to go. He’s allowing a lot to lefties, so get some stacks against him.
Cubs 5 star plays – none
Cubs 4 star plays – Contreras, Happ/Wisdom
GPP note – There’s not much to go off against Alexander, but a few of these guys are hitting righties pretty well, so don’t be afraid to attack him here.
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
The Rays will take on the Rangers next, with Springs and Gray on the hill. Springs certainly knows how to pitch above his pay grade, and Gray, well, who knows what he’s bringing on any given day. This game is pretty interesting to me, as I could see a few spots where some good fantasy production could be had at a nice price. Dig in and see if you agree!
Rays 5 star plays – none
Rays 4 star plays – Kiermaier, Arozarena
GPP note – Gray can be a mixed bag, and this matchup really could go either way, so it wouldn’t be a terrible idea to hedge a little here as I don’t think either side will be too heavily owned. Righties get the slight power advantage against him.
Rangers 5 star plays – none
Rangers 4 star plays – Seager, Garver
GPP note – Springs remains dirt cheap on DK but continues to pitch well above his salary. Lefties have the power advantage against him (.222 ISO allowed to them during the month of May), but overall he’s been stingy and not a great target to attack. I don’t mind some smaller stacks, but I worry about the upside of larger ones.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers
And finally, we’ll head out west and wrap up the day with the Pirates and Dodgers, who will start Quintana and White. The Pirates have the pitching advantage here, so let’s see if they can put it to use and sweep the Dodgers at home (that would be hilarious, so I hope they do).
Pirates 5 star plays – none
Pirates 4 star plays – VanMeter/Reynolds
GPP note – White allows power to both sides, but much more to righties (.333 ISO) than to lefties (.160 ISO). A few of these guys are hitting righties well, and they’ll want to keep the train moving, so don’t be afraid to take a few shots here.
Dodgers 5 star plays – Betts
Dodgers 4 star plays – Freeman, Turner/Turner
GPP note – Though this isn’t a great matchup (Quintana has been stingy to both sides and boasts a decent strikeout rate), I don’t see these guys wanting to drop 3 straight to the Pirates of all teams. That might be reason enough to go right back to them, as others might shy away due to recency bias.
And that’s going to do it for this one. Thanks for joining me, and be sure to check out the coach’s notes page to see who they are most interested in. Best of luck today!
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