Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/12:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Justin Verlander
- Edward Cabrera
- Ranger Suarez
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves (-260)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Jose Quintana
Braves – Kyle Wright
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. We get another Atlanta pitcher in a great spot. They have racked up Ks so far and I have to believe that Wright will get an increase as well. I expect the ATL offense to be really popular with how they have been performing. I think Quintana has overachieved to begin the season.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .131 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .267 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays (-125) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Rays – Jeffery Springs
Twins – Cole Sands
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I want to believe that the Twins have a chance, as a fan. The issue is that Sands has been horrendous while Springs has been really solid as an SP. The Twins do have a few guys who can do damage to LHPs but I am just not sure it’ll be enough.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .260 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals (-135)
Pitchers:
Orioles – Dean Kremer
Royals – Brad Keller
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. We get yet another big-time total in KC today. I expect the runs to come early and often if I am being honest. The C’s in this game has been heating up while Taylor and Witt have been swinging it really well over the last week or so. I wouldn’t be shocked if Adley goes deep.
BAL 5-star plays: Adley Rutschman
4-star plays: Austin Hays
GPP Note: Team ISO of .201 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Michael Taylor, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies (-210)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Kyle Nelson (bullpen game)
Phillies – Ranger Suarez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. The Phillies have been rolling since firing Girardi and they should continue today. They have been flashing a TON of power. I always fall into the Suarez trap and today will be no different. He flashes just enough to get me hooked on him as a strong GPP play.
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .140 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .276 over the last week.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-125) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Brewers – Jason Alexander
Nationals – Paolo Espino
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. I have this feeling that the Milwaukee offense will wake up a day after we were all about them. The Nationals’ offense, especially the top of the order, has been rolling and we could see Soto-Cruz go on a ridiculous tear. Alexander is an EXTREME groundball guy.
MIL 5-star plays: Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Luis Urias, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: Lane Thomas, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .174 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox (-155)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Jon Gray
White Sox – Michael Kopech
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. If you’ve read my work this season, you know how much I dislike Jon Gray. He went off as chalk a couple of starts ago while I was very vocal in my personal fade of him. Thankfully I got to shout from the rooftops about how he was going to struggle against Cleveland. The Rangers’ bats have been warming up but mainly just a couple of guys. Kopech has impressive upside but he lacks consistency.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .229 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Jake Burger
4-star plays: Yasmani Grandal
GPP Note: Team ISO of .138 over the last week.
New York Mets (EVEN) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Mets – Taijuan Walker
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I expect the line to move towards the Angels after we watched Trout return with a vengeance Saturday night. I think Sandoval is extremely underrated and if Marte is out again, it weakens the Mets’ lineup against LHPs. Walker is certainly capable of being solid, I just don’t think he offers a ton of upside.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Pete Alonso
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout
4-star plays: Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .198 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-185)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
Padres – Blake Snell
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I was shocked to see Gore struggle so much last night. Snell has been far worse than Gore has been so I need to go back to my love of the Rockies against LHPs. I love the top of the Padres lineup yet again, for the third straight day. I’ve always had a thing for Nomar Mazara’s ability.
COL 5-star plays: Brendan Rodgers
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners (-145)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Undecided
Mariners – Robbie Ray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. I tried to hold out in order to learn about the BOS pitching plans but we do not have an announcement yet. Ray is obviously capable of a massive game but I have to believe he walks multiple guys and gives up an HR to somebody on Boston.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Trevor Story
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ New York Yankees (-220)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Keegan Thompson
Yankees – Jameson Taillon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Taillon should be fairly popular and he did almost make my list at the top of the page. Thompson has been somewhat surprising for the Cubs. The Yankees bats have been flexing the power and I really expect that to continue but maybe they are overvalued today, based on all the HRs yesterday.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christopher Morel, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Gleyber Torres
GPP Note: Team ISO of .227 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-150) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Tigers – Tarik Skubal
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Blue Jays stuck it to us yesterday in an absolutely ideal spot. I wonder if maybe we shouldn’t get ourselves a 10% stack share against a much better SP. Stripling might be a cheap option for us on DK, which has my attention against one of the weakest offenses in baseball.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer
4-star plays: Alejandro Kirk
GPP Note: Team ISO of .211 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .101 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros (-230)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Edward Cabrera
Astros – Justin Verlander
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I absolutely love this SP match-up. Verlander just continues to get it done, even at his advanced age. Cabrera is a young, flame-thrower, with massive upside both today and for his career. I honestly want to get myself a number of shares of Cabrera because I believe people will blindly stack HOU.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
GPP Note: Team ISO of .181 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .188 over the last week.
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Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-185)
Pitchers:
Reds – Graham Ashcraft
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8. I am tempted to believe that this game plays to the under. Ashcraft has been a bit of a surprise but we did see how Greene was able to shut down the STL bats. Hudson is like a better version of Stripling. I know that’s not an impressive comparison but I think he’s more reliable than Stripling thanks to his strong groundball rates.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill,Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .070 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-135) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Julio Urias
Giants – Carlos Rodon
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get a match-up of a couple of really tough LHPs who haven’t been as dominant as expected. Both guys are capable of putting up a massive performance. I think both guys are very much in play but I also believe that we should be building mini-stacks of each offense.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Will Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Austin Slater
4-star plays: Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians (-165)
Pitchers:
A’s – Cole Irvin
Guardians – Cal Quantrill
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We get a game that doesn’t excite me a whole lot but the A’s have flashed a bit of power in this series. I don’t love either SP enough but I also don’t think either offense goes off against the opposing SP. We know that Ramirez is always in play for us.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christian Bethancourt, Seth Brown
GPP Note: Team ISO of .157 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Oscar Gonzalez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .119 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Atlanta Braves
- Tampa Bay Rays
MLB Dinger of the Day – Ozzie Albies, Braves
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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