Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 6/11:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Mackenzie Gore
- Kevin Gausman
- Zack Wheeler
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Pittsburgh Pirates @ Atlanta Braves (-250)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Atlanta should be very popular while Morton should also be one of the most popular SPs on the day. Suwinski isn’t hitting for much of an average but the power has been impressive. Acuna is on my short list for Dinger of the Day.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jack Suwinski
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: Ronald Acuna Jr
4-star plays: Michael Harris, Dansby Swanson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .259 over the last week.
Tampa Bay Rays (EVEN) @ Minnesota Twins
Pitchers:
Rays – Shane Baz
Twins – Chi Chi Gonzalez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Baz will make his 2022 MLB debut and it has me torn. I believe this kid has a chance to be elite but he’s facing the hot Twins lineup. He shouldn’t face much for pitch restrictions but I really like the total being so high in this game. When a guy like Buxton gets hot, you just ride the wave.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Randy Arozarena, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .169 over the last week.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .256 over the last week.
Baltimore Orioles (-120) @ Kansas City Royals
Pitchers:
Orioles – Tyler Wells
Royals – Daniel Lynch
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9.5. This series is rocking some high totals with this being the third game. I will go right back to both offenses as a strong stack that ends up in my middle tier. Perez is heating up for KC and Melendez is really starting to impress everybody at the MLB level.
BAL 5-star plays: Trey Mancini
4-star plays: Austin Hays, Ryan Mountcastle
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last week.
KC 5-star plays: MJ Melendez
4-star plays: Salvador Perez, Bobby Witt
GPP Note: Team ISO of .177 over the last week.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Philadelphia Phillies (-240)
Pitchers:
D’Backs – Madison Bumgarner
Phillies – Zack Wheeler
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Wheeler should actually dominate here but a few of the ARI bats have hit him hard, especially Walker. I think the Phillies get to Bumgarner around the 3rd inning and by the end of the 5th, they are up 8-1. How’s that for an aggressive prediction?
ARI 5-star plays: Christian Walker
4-star plays: David Peralta, Ketel Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .150 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Rhys Hoskins, JT Realmuto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .274 over the last week.
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Milwaukee Brewers (-160) @ Washington Nationals
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Nationals – Patrick Corbin
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. The Brewers have been ice cold, so it’s really hard for me to jump on them. You should know how I feel about Corbin by now, so now I am in a tough spot. I will be jamming in plenty of Renfroe-McCutchen stacks while also adding some Nationals mini-stacks.
MIL 5-star plays: Hunter Renfroe, Andrew McCutchen
4-star plays: Luis Urias, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .094 over the last week.
WSH 5-star plays: Lane Thomas, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ Chicago White Sox (-145)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Martin Perez
White Sox – Lucas Giolito
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. We could see a really low-scoring game or TEX gets to Giolito with a few HRs. I realize that he is favored but Giolito has more blow-up in his performances than Perez does at this point. Jake Burger is pretty hot at the plate and makes for an excellent one-off bat.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nathaniel Lowe, Marcus Semien
GPP Note: Team ISO of .214 over the last week.
CWS 5-star plays: Jake Burger
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Andrew Vaughn
GPP Note: Team ISO of .137 over the last week.
New York Mets (-135) @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Mets – Carlos Carrasco
Angels – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Carrasco should end up fairly popular with how bad this LAA lineup has been. I am shocked to see such a high total in this one. The Mets are going to make my top 3 for the main slate but DK’s main slate is kind of weak.
NYM 5-star plays: Brandon Nimmo
4-star plays: Eduardo Escobar, Starling Marte
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Shohei Ohtani
4-star plays: Jo Adell
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-190) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Rockies – Ryan Feltner
Padres – Nick Martinez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am right back onto the Padres in both games of the doubleheader. I think you can sprinkle in a few Rockies for game 1 while game 2 is all about Gore for me. Cronenworth-Profar helped Keg take down 20K last night and I like them just as much today, as I did yesterday.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Charlie Blackmon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Nomar Mazara
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres (-230) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
Padres – Mackenzie Gore
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I am right back onto the Padres in both games of the doubleheader. I think you can sprinkle in a few Rockies for game 1 while game 2 is all about Gore for me. Cronenworth-Profar helped Keg take down 20K last night and I like them just as much today, as I did yesterday.
COL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: CJ Cron, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .104 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Jake Cronenworth
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Manny Machado
GPP Note: Team ISO of .165 over the last week.
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Boston Red Sox @ Seattle Mariners (-125)
Pitchers:
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I actually think we could see a game with 11+ runs here. I know Wacha is coming off of an impressive performance and Kirby has impressive upside. Both offenses feel like they match up really well and I wouldn’t be shocked to see GPP takedowns from either team.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Trevor Story, Alex Verdugo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .117 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: Ty France
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Eugenio Suarez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
Chicago Cubs @ New York Yankees (-255)
Pitchers:
Cubs – Matt Swarmer
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 9. Swarmer has been really strong in his brief MLB career but this Yankees lineup is a different animal. Montgomery should be solid but most likely is unspectacular as the Cubs have a handful of guys who can hit LHPs. Judge should always be on the Dinger short list.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Christopher Morel, Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .183 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays (-245) @ Detroit Tigers
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Tigers – Beau Brieske
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I wouldn’t be shocked if the total for this game gets to 9 because the Blue Jays are in such a great spot against the splits of Brieske. I think I am going to roll with Springer as my Dinger of the Day call and wouldn’t be shocked to see him rock a leadoff HR.
TOR 5-star plays: George Springer, Bo Bichette
4-star plays: Alejandro Kirk, Lourdes Gurriel
GPP Note: Team ISO of .265 over the last week.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Miguel Cabrera
GPP Note: Team ISO of .079 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros (-275)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Braxton Garrett
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Astros aren’t exactly hot and their two best hitters right now are LH. They both happen to hit LHPs decently so I can see a mini stack. Miami put up a few runs yesterday but I really have to believe that Valdez does a decent job against them.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Garrett Cooper
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Yordan Alvarez
4-star plays: Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 over the last week.
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Cincinnati Reds @ St Louis Cardinals (-175)
Pitchers:
Reds – Hunter Greene
Cardinals – Adam Wainwright
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 8. I could see Greene dominating or I could see the Cardinals hit 4 HRs today. I lean more towards the dominating because the Cardinals’ lineup has cooled off. Wainwright is always in play when he pitches at home. Votto has impressive history against Wainwright.
CIN 5-star plays: Joey Votto
4-star plays: Tommy Pham, Brandon Drury
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
STL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .062 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-160) @ San Francisco Giants
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Giants – Sammy Long
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Kershaw makes his return from the IL today and I never bet against him, especially after he gets a lengthy rest. The Giants do have a couple of bats that have had success against him. Long gets the Dodgers at a decent time as they have cooled off but they can heat up at any point.
LAD 5-star plays: Trea Turner
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Austin Slater
4-star plays: Evan Longoria
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
Oakland Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians (-130)
Pitchers:
A’s – Frankie Montas
Guardians – Zach Plesac
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Great pitching match-up with very little to excite me from an offensive standpoint. Ramirez is killing the baseball this year so he is always in play as a one-off option. Both of the SPs should carry a decent amount of ownership on the slate.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ramon Laureano
GPP Note: Team ISO of .103 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Andres Gimenez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- New York Yankees
- Seattle Mariners
- New York Mets
MLB Dinger of the Day – George Springer, Toronto
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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