Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
Hello DFS Army fans! I am William and am super excited to be a part of the MLB staff this season. Feel free to call me Will and you can find me @wlin018 on Twitter. These articles are written many hours before lock so the lines could change. The lines will be adjusted as people place bets or the player could be removed from the board. To find the most up-to-date player lines with the best edge, check out our MLB Prizepicks Tool. This tool is included as part of our VIP subscription which you can get your first month for free by signing up and depositing on PrizePicks! There is even another bonus which you will find at the end of this article…
PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Cincinnati Reds third baseman Brandon Drury (22) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run in the first inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday, June 6, 2022, at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Arizona Diamondbacks At Cincinnati Reds June 6 0016
Brandon Drury O 6.5fpt
CIN vs ARI
Cincinnati continues their homestand with yet another terrific matchup. The Reds are taking on the lefty Tyler Gilbert today. He pitched a no-hitter last season but has otherwise been a below-average pitcher. Cincinnati should have 8 RHBs today just like they did against Madison Bumgarner on Monday. The lone lefty Joey Votto can hit lefties just fine. Drury should be a big part of this offense implied for a 5.5 run total. He has been on fire and gets a platoon advantage against Gilbert who struggles against RHBs. Gilbert allows a 46.7% flyball rate to RHBs and Drury only has a 39.7% groundball rate. He should be able to put the ball in the air which is a huge plus in this hitter’s ballpark that ranks 1st this season ahead of Coors Field. If Drury is going to be at 6.5 in spots like this at home, I will keep taking the over.
Christopher Morel O 0.5r+rbi
CHC @ BAL
The Cubs are heading to Baltimore. They get to face Kyle Bradish, someone who has struggled mightily this season. He has a 6.82 ERA and 5.57 xERA. Bradish has given up 7 HRs and a 2.02 WHIP to RHBs this season in just 16.1 IP. He is a reverse splits pitcher but really does not fare well against LHBs either. Morel has been a reverse splits hitter so far in his career. He is hitting .306 against RHPs compared to .235 against LHPs. Morel has played in 20 games and has 15 runs already. This is an insane pace but it can certainly keep going against a weak pitcher in Bradish. This line includes RBIs which Morel has recorded 8 of those. Chicago has a 4.6 run total in Camden Yards with 74 degree weather and winds blowing out to center at 11mph. Morel should be able to get on base with his hitting stats and walk rate. He has great speed which will allow him to hit the over against Bradish and the Baltimore bullpen.
DJ LeMahieu O 0.5r+rbi
NYY @ MIN
LeMahieu is another leadoff hitter in a good spot today. He plays for a much better offense than Morel does but Morel has the weather and ballpark advantages today. The Yankees are an elite offensive team especially at home. They will be on the road today but they are still great. Aaron Judge is on fire and Giancarlo Stanton is back in the lineup. Minnesota is expected to start Cole Sands. The youngster did not pitch well in his lone start coughing up 4 ER in 4 IP to Detroit. New York is a much taller task. LeMahieu hits LHPs much better than RHPs but his xBA is 40 points higher than what his real average is. The Yankees offense is elite as their bottom of the order hitters can get on base too. This gives LeMahieu RBI opportunities that other teams’ leadoff hitters do not typically get. Reaching base with Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, and Giancarlo Stanton to follow certainly gives LeMahieu a high chance of coming around to score.
Byron Buxton U 1.5h+bb
MIN vs NYY
On the other side of this game, the Yankees are sending Jameson Taillon to the mound. He has been excellent this season with a 6-1 record and 2.30 ERA. Taillon only has a 2.2% walk rate. Buxton has a 7.8% walk rate, a career high. A starting pitcher that walks close to nobody puts Buxton in a position to deliver 2 hits. That should be tough as the Yankees bullpen has been solid. Buxton has struggled against RHPs this season only hitting .206. He does not have multi-hit games that often. His last one came June 3rd and then you have to go all the way back to May 3rd. Buxton strikes out a lot which explains his .216 avg. This is a much better pitcher’s ballpark as opposed to Yankee Stadium.
Cesar Hernandez U 7fpt
WAS @ MIA
Edward Cabrera showed a lot of promise in his first appearance this season. He fired 6 shutout innings in Coors Field. The books believe in him as the Nationals only have a 3.7 implied run total today. LoanDepot Park is a pitcher’s park which will only make it tough for Hernandez. He has 0 HRs and 2 SBs this season. Since Hernandez has no power or stolen base ability, he needs to score his fantasy points from hits, walks, and rely on his teammates to drive him in. He only has a 6.7% walk rate this season. Cabrera is a top prospect and should be pitching with high confidence after his last start. If Washington is going to have a tough time scoring runs, Hernandez is really going to be limited. If he has 0 runs and rbis, he needs to have a multi-hit game because he does not have power, speed, or a high walk rate. This line seems a little bit too high.
Just missed the cut: DET/PIT NRFI, Tommy Pham O 6.5fpt, Marcus Semien G2 O 6.5fpt, Mitch Garver G2 O 5.5fpt, Trevor Story O 0.5r+rbi
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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