Similar to MLB DFS, there are going to be player lines that stand out on every slate. One big difference is that you are betting against the house and not other users. Therefore, pick the most favorable over/unders to build the best entry.
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PrizePicks MLB Plays for Tonight…
Apr 26, 2022; Anaheim, California, USA; Cleveland Guardians center fielder Myles Straw (7) runs home to score against the Los Angeles Angels during the ninth inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Myles Straw O 0.5 runs + RBIs
CLE @ BAL
Cleveland is taking on Baltimore today. They will be facing lefty Bruce Zimmerman. He holds a 4.53 ERA but a xERA of 6.49. Zimmerman has a 5.2% walk rate but is allowing a xBA of .310 which is in the bottom 7th of the league. Straw leads things off for the Guardians. He has a 14.1% walk rate, one of the higher ones in the league. Amed Rosario should see his numbers rise against LHPs. Behind Rosario is the MVP candidate, Jose Ramirez. Straw’s O 0.5 runs is -145 on sportsbooks. PrizePicks offers RBIs with runs which makes this an even better play. Straw himself is hitting .279 against LHPs while .214 versus RHPs. Straw has a ton of speed which should allow him to come around and score at least once today. As the leadoff hitter on the road, he could see 5 at-bats.
Luis Arraez U 7.5fpt
MIN @ TOR
This is similar to the Jazz Chisholm play Thursday. Arraez is facing lefty Yusei Kikuchi. There is a chance Arraez sits to avoid the lefty versus lefty matchup. If he plays, I like the under. 7.5 is too high of a projection. Even when he faces right handed pitchers, he sometimes is only at 6.5. Arraez has a very good eye striking out only 8.7% of the time. He is hitting .340 with a 13.4% bb rate. These numbers are great but they really are not when he faces lefties. He only bats .182 against LHPs this season. He is a contact hitter with little power. There is a 1.5 hits + walks line available but I prefer the fantasy points. He does not have speed so he could walk twice but still miss his fantasy point line. Kikuchi does have a 13.3% walk rate but is good against LHBs.
Ronald Acuna O 1.5tb / Matt Olson O 1.5tb
ATL @ COL
Chad Kuhl is having arguably his best season of his career. This is still Coors Field though. Kuhl has made 9 starts with 6 being on the road. He had a terrific start against Philadelphia at home. Kuhl went 7.1 IP against Cincinnati allowing 3 ER including 2 HRs. In his most recent start, he gave up 5 ER against San Francisco. Those road starts include some weak opponents such as Arizona and Pittsburgh. Atlanta is a different animal. The Braves do strikeout a lot but that is deflated in Coors. Kuhl is not a strikeout pitcher either. Acuna has had better numbrs this year against RHPs. He flew out to the warning track on Thursday. Acuna and Olson have more than enough power to hit one out in Colorado. The Rockies bullpen is tired after playing a doubleheader on Wednesday.
Chase Silseth U 23.5fpt
LAA @ PHI
Silseth’s lines just seem too high. He made two consecutive starts against Oakland to begin his major league career. His first start was good but his next two really have not been great. The Athletics do strikeout. Silseth then faced Toronto and recorded 0 strikeouts. He was drafted last year so he has a short leash. Silseth only threw 60 pitches last time out. A young pitcher making a start on the road just seems like trouble. Jean Segura will miss some time but this Phillies lineup is still more than capable of knocking Silseth out early. He went 6 innings the first start but since then has gone 4.1. The Angels are on a seven game losing streak. Both the quality start and win seem out of reach for Silseth. He will need to get 24fpts from innings and strikeouts. This is a tough matchup for the rookie.
Cedric Mullins O 5fpt / Austin Hays O 4.5fpt
BAL vs CLE
Shane Bieber is not the same pitcher as he was when he won the Cy Young award in 2020. His velocity has dipped significantly and can barely hit 90mph. He is not a terrible pitcher but he is not the elite arm that should cause the opposing hitter’s projections to be discounted this much. Bieber has a 3.19 ERA with a much lower strikeout rate of 23.1% this season. He has had a lot of easy matchups to begin the season including two straight starts against Detroit. Baltimore is not that much better but Bieber is headed for negative regression. Besides his walk and whiff rates, Bieber is not having a great year. The Orioles are a better offensive team this season compared to last year against RHPs. Hays is on fire right now and is batting .358 against RHPs. Bieber has reverse splits this season. Mullins gets the platoon advantage and has stolen base ability. These lines are not set correctly for the 2022 Shane Bieber.
Just missed the cut: Marcus Stroman U 17.5po, Amed Rosario O 5.5fpt, Bo Bichette O 7fpt, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. O 1.5tb, Teoscar Hernandez O 0.5r+rbi
Final MLB PrizePicks Thought
Remember, ownership is not a factor here. Simply, pick the best lines available.
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