MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Draftkings Fanduel Wednesday May 4th, 2022

MAY THE 4th BE WITH YOU FOLKS!!

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…

Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)

 

MAIN MLB DFS Slate (7 games)

Nestor Cortes (10.1k FD, 9.9k DK) @ TOR

Don’t love the matchup here with Toronto, but he was good in his first start against Toronto. He went just 4.2 innings in that one and struck out 5 hitters. Cortes has been a little better at home than the road, but he still has allowed just 1 ER on the road this year. He has limited RHB to a .235 wOBA which is encouraging in this matchup as TOR will have a ton of righties. Cortes has a high GB rate against lefties and much less against righties, but he’s striking out 35% of lefties and righties. This is a very risky play here and I only advise for GPPs with his price and matchup. The Yanks pitching staff has shut down the Jays so far this series too. GPP ONLY

Lucas Giolito (10k FD, 9.5k DK) @ CHC

Cold weather here in Chicago tonight benefits the pitchers. We are seeing winds coming in from center too. Giolito has been racking up strikeouts He finally went more than 4 innings in his last start against the Angels and racked up 7 strikeouts. The strikeouts haven’t been the problem for him early on, it’s going deep into games. He has over 30 FD points and 16 DK points in all 3 starts so far this year. Coming into this game, the Cubs have a 27.2% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks with a .089 ISO. Giolito He can rack up strikeouts in a hurry for the White Sox. ALL FORMATS

Dylan Bundy (8.9k FD, 8.3k DK) @ BAL

Baltimore comes into this game with a 23.3% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks, with an ISO of just .117. Baltimore is going to be a team we target for much of the season. Bundy has been able to get some strikeouts this year in his starts and last time out against the Rays he really struggled, allowing 6 ER but still had 7 K’s in 6 innings. Bundy has looked fairly good in 3 of his 4 starts this year. On the road he has struggled more than at home though, but that’s mainly because he allowed 6 ER in his last road start. He has a 29% strikeout rate against RHB, while dropping to just 16% against lefties. If he can keep the ball on the ground, he should have a good game here. ALL FORMATS

Reid Detmers (6.6k FD, 8k DK) @ BOS

Definitely not using him at this price on DraftKings here tonight, but he is a solid price on Fanduel here. We are going to see cold and crappy weather in Boston tonight which could benefit the pitchers. He has gone 5 innings in his last 2 starts and hasn’t been awful. He isn’t a big strikeout guy so far early in his MLB career though. Boston’s offense against LHP this season though has not been good. They have just a .094 ISO while hitting .219. Over the last 2 weeks it’s been even worse. THey have some massive power guys who can hit lefties, but they haven’t done all that much yet this year besides Bogaerts and Martinez. GPP ONLY

Freddy Peralta (8.8k FD, 8.9k DK) vs CIN

Peralta is in a great matchup here against the Reds who have started the season 3-20 and are a joke of a team right now. Peralta looks like he’s back into form after struggling in his first 2 starts this year. Over the last 2 starts he has thrown 11 innings with 13 strikeouts, allowing just 1 ER and only 8 baserunners. Prime matchup against the Reds here who have not been good to start the season. I will be streaming pitchers against the Reds all season if they continue to play like this. ALL FORMATS

Austin Gomber (8k FD, 6.7k DK) vs WSH

Tough matchup with Washington here, but man did you see the temperatures in this game?! Mark, our weather guy has a forecast of 39 degrees in Colorado tonight. I think this will benefit the pitchers, even being in Coors field Gomber was really good at home last season too so I have some confidence in him. This year, Washington has the lowest strikeout rate against LHP, but have a .084 ISO and .232 batting average with an OPS of .626. I do see some upside with him, but it’s always hard to trust a pitcher in Coors. GPP ONLY

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1. Freddy Peralta
2. Lucas Giolito
3. Dylan Bundy
4. Nestor Cortes
5. Austin Gomber
6. Reid Detmers

Top MLB Stacks: Main DFS Slate

1. New York Yankees
2. Colorado Rockies
3. Minnesota Twins
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Chicago White Sox

DINGER OF THE DAY

C.J. Cron

Cron has been amazing so far this year and has a good matchup at home against Patrick Corbin. He has HR in back to back games and Corbin has been bad this season. He has a 9 ERA on the road, allowing 8 ER. Both sides of the plate are killing him right now. Cron is 3-8 with a double against Corbin. I like how Cron has made himself at home in Colorado here. Even in the cold weather here, I think Cron can hit one out.

 

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