MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Draftkings Fanduel Wednesday May 18th,2022 EARLY AND MAIN

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…

Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)

No article the last few days because I was covering cheat sheets for us!

EARLY MLB DFS Slate (5 games)

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Corbin Burnes (10.3k FD, 10k DK) vs ATL

Burnes has massive upside in this matchup. ATL  comes into this game with the highest strikeout rate in baseball against RHP in the last 2 weeks at 28.3%. Burnes has been striking out over 7 guys in every start this season except his first start of the season. Some guys have some success against him, but I don’t mind that as he’s looked really good this season. Going 6+ innings in every start except his first of the season. At home he has allowed just 4 ER and struck out 31 hitters. ALL FORMATS

Max Fried (9.3k FD, 9.3k DK) @ MIL

The Brewers are striking out a good amount against LHP in the last month. I use 30 day sample for teams against lefties because they don’t face as many lefties as righties. In that span, MIL has a 24% strikeout rate while hitting under .200 and have an ISO of .075. They do a lot of their damage against righties. Last time out against this MIL team he went 7 innings and recorded 8 K’s. He’s been good on the road in 2 starts where he went at least 6 innings in both of them striking out 14 hitters. ALL FORMATS

Walker Buehler (10k FD, 10.3k DK) vs ARI

Great bounce back matchup here for Buehler against Arizona. Last time he faced them he threw a 3 hit shutout, striking out 10 batters in the start. He has been pretty solid this year outside of a few starts. Last time out, he got roughed up against the Phillies, but outside of that has been pretty good. Arizona comes into this game with a 23.5% strikeout rate against RHP (10th in the MLB). In 119 ABs, the DBacks have a career .129 batting average against him with a 30% strikeout rate. ALL FORMATS

Sonny Gray (8.2k FD, 6.7k DK) @ OAK

Gray is super cheap on DraftKings this afternoon slate and has a good matchup with the A’s. They have the most games this year while scoring just 1 run. They won last night but I still don’t love the A’s offense. Last time out against the Guardians, he only went 4.1 innings,  but had 8 strikeouts. He hasn’t been able to go deep into games yet this season, but last time he faced OAK he went 4 innings and struck out 7 while allowing just 4 baserunners. On DK, where you need 2 pitchers, I really like him at 6.7k. Oakland is hitting just .186 with an ISO of .081 in the last 14 days to RHP. GPP, CASH SP2 on DK

Drew Rasmussen (8k FD, 7.9k DK) vs DET

Good matchup with him this afternoon against the Tigers. He hasn’t been awful this year, just doesn’t go deep into games. He has not allowed more than 1 ER in his last 4 starts though. He isn’t a big strikeout guy, but on a smaller slate we need some cheaper options here. GPP 

PITCHER RANKINGS EARLY

1. Corbin Burnes
2. Walker Buehler
3. Max Fried
4. Sonny Gray (CORE SP2 on DK)
5. Drew Rasmussen

   

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Top MLB Stacks: EARLY DFS Slate

1. San Francisco Giants
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Colorado Rockies
5. Tampa Bay Rays

 

MAIN MLB DFS Slate (8 games FD, 6 DK)

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Pablo Lopez (10.5k FD) vs WSH

Lopez is only on the main slate for Fanduel tonight as DraftKings slate locks at 7pm. Lopez has been really good for the Marlins this year and they have a promising young starting rotation. He has 15 innings and 16 K’s in his last 2 starts while striking out 11 Brewers last time out. Last time he faced Washington he scored 46 FD points going 6 innings with 6 K’s. Washington is a team that isn’t striking out much to RHP of late, but I do see his upside here. I don’t like his price much, but he is in play for GPPs. GPP

Zack Wheeler (9.5k FD) vs SD

Wheeler is another that’s just on the Fanduel main slate. Wheeler has been MUCH better at home this season. The Padres come into this game with a 23.7% strikeout rate against RHP which ranks 9th in the MLB. They are hitting just over .208 with an ISO of only .107. There are some guys that I worry about here with Wheeler, but overall he’s been much better over his last 3 starts after struggling to start the season. Home starts have been better for him outside of the 4 ER he allowed to MIL. I like his upside here, but he doesn’t have much of a floor. GPP ONLY

Gerrit Cole (10.6k FD, 9.9k DK) @ BAL

Cole has really turned it around after really struggling in his first 3 starts. Over his last 4, he has gone 6+ innings in all of them, allowing just 4 ER and striking out 34 hitters in 25 innings. BAL doesn’t have a super high strikeout rate against RHP of late, but we saw Severino strike out 7 in the series. There are a couple of guys who have some success against him, but none that I’m too worried about. Cole needs to keep the ball in the yard and strikeout a ton of guys here. He has 4 straight QS and wins in 3 of 4. Has massive upside here against Baltimore. ALL FORMATS

Kevin Gausman (9.8k FD, 10.1k DK) vs SEA

We saw Berrios have a good game last night against Seattle and Gausman is having a much better season than Berrios. Gausman has been elite all season and has gone over 6 innings in 5 of his 7 starts this year. He has elite strikeout stuff too and doesn’t allow many runs. 5 straight Quality Starts for Gausman getting over a K per inning. Seattle’s offense doesn’t worry me much and they do have some guys who strikeout a lot. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go 6+ and strikeout 8 hitters tonight against SEA. ALL FORMATS

Max Scherzer (10.4k FD, 10.6k DK) vs STL

Tough matchup for Scherzer here, but he’s still an elite pitcher and wins games that are tough. He’s been really good for the Mets so far this year when healthy He has gone 6+ innings in all but 1 start this year so far. His strikeouts have been there too. Last time he faced STL on the road he went 7 innings with 10 strikeouts. STL isn’t a team striking out a ton against RHP, but with a starter this elite we can sort of ignore those numbers. He will still get his K’s but he could allow some hits as he allowed 10 hits just 2 starts ago. He’s expensive, but STL as a team has just a .109 average against him with a 36.4% strikeout rate. ALL FORMATS

Drew Smyly (6.8k FD, 7.1k DK) vs PIT

Don’t love this option here, but we saw Wade Miley have a great game against PIT a couple of games ago. We needed some cheaper options in this article tonight since a good amount of studs are going tonight. Smyly hasn’t been great at home, but for his price he really doesn’t need to do much. If playing him, you can almost get whatever hitters you want in your lineup. PIT has a good ISO over the last month against LHP, but aren’t hitting for much average and are striking out. I like some upside here, but he’s risky. GPP ONLY

Shohei Ohtani (10.1k FD, 9.2k DK) @ TEX

Texas comes into this game with a 23.4% strikeout rate against RHP and Ohtani has been really good on the mount this year so far. He has 2 starts with over 11 K’s and the other two he didn’t get a ton of K’s. He still has massive upside and Texas’s offense has a ton of strikeouts in their lineup.

Lucas Giolito (10.3k FD, 8.3k DK) @ KCR

Good matchup with the Royals here. Giolito missed some time being on the COVID list, but he is ready to go in this one and shouldn’t face any restrictions in this one. The Royals are usually a team that doesn’t strikeout much, but over the last 2 weeks against RHP they rank 6th most with a 24.3% strikeout rate. Giolito has been good this year and is starting to go deeper into games. ALL FORMATS

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1. Kevin Gausman
2. Gerrit Cole
3. Max Scherzer
4. Pablo Lopez
5. Lucas Giolito
6. Shohei Ohtani
7. Zack Wheeler
8. Drew Smyly

Top MLB Stacks: Main DFS Slate

1. New York Yankees
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. Toronto Blue Jays
4. New York Mets
5. Los Angeles Angels

 

DINGER OF THE DAY

Giancarlo Stanton

Stanton is 7-15 with 2 doubles and a HR against Jordan Lyles in his career. Stanton has been great for the Yanks over the last couple of weeks. Lyles, typically worse against right handers has been better against them this year, but the Yankees offense is rolling right now. My other option for Dinger of the Day was going to be Ian Happ against Mitch Keller.

 

 

 

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