MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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MAIN MLB DFS Slate (12 games)
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Eric Lauer @ CHC
The Cubs are struggling right now against lefties. In the last 2 weeks, they have a 30% strikeout rate against LHP, but they do have some power. Lauer has been really good for the Brewers so far this season too. Struggled a bit in his last start against the Cards, but they are also a team that doesn’t strikeout that much against lefties. Lauer is allowing under a .280 wOBA to both sides of the plate so far and is striking out 32% of lefties and 29% of righties. I love his upside in this matchup to get the strikeouts to have a great game. ALL FORMATS
Kevin Gausman vs CWS
Gausman has been really good for the Jays all season. Outside of a couple of hiccup starts, he has been as consistent as one wants. Chicago comes into this game not striking out a ton against RHP, but with Gausman’s upside I do like him a lot here. He has at least 8 strikeouts in 6 of his 9 starts so far this season and has faced some really good offenses. CHW isn’t striking out a lot as I said, but they also have one of the lowest ISO’s to RHP in the last 2 weeks in the league. ALL FORMATS
May 1, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports
Lucas Giolito @ TOR
I don’t usually like writing up two guys in the same game, but I think we see a really good pitching duel in this one tonight. Neither team is striking out a ton against RHP, but neither team is blowing the doors off hitting either against RHP. TOR comes in with a high walk rate against righties and Giolito has been walking guys (6 in his last 2 starts). He has been at, or passed 7 strikeouts in all but 2 starts this season. Last time out against the hot Red Sox he shut them down and struck out 7 over 6 innings allowing just 1 ER. He’s been good here and I think we see a low scoring game. LEAN GPP
Julio Urias vs PIT
A rematch against the Pirates here for Urias. Last time against them he didn’t fare that well, allowing 11 hits and striking out only 4 over 6 innings. He still got the QS, but the hits really hurt over on DK. PIT comes into this game with a 25.5% strikeout rate against LHP and are hitting just .205 in the last 2 weeks. I see the upside with Urias, but he isn’t a big strikeout guy either. GPP
Martin Perez vs TBR
Tougher matchup against the Rays here than he had last time out, but Perez has been lights out for the Rangers this season. In 9 starts, he has allowed more than 1 ER in just 2 (those were his first 2 starts of the season. Perez has been better getting strikeouts as well as he has over 5 K’s in his last 3 starts. Never really a big strikeout guy, but seeing close to 1 per inning has been encouraging. TB rarely strikes out against lefties, but they have just a .053 ISO against LHP in the last 2 weeks. The way Perez has thrown the ball this year, he has to be in consideration for tournaments. GPP
Frankie Montas vs HOU
Riskier GPP option here for Montas, but I do like his upside here. Houston could be without Altuve in this one after he left the game yesterday after getting hurt. Altuve has the best BvP against Montas so that takes away a lot here. Montas has been better at home. In 7 home starts, Montas has over a K per inning and allowing only a .190 OBP. Disregarding the start against LAA where he got hurt in the 2nd inning, his last 2 starts he has 11 and 12 strikeouts. Montas has been fairly consistent this year and can rack up K’s in a hurry if he’s on. Tougher matchup with a lot of the left-handed power from the Astros. GPP
Cristian Javier @ OAK
Javier has one of the better matchups on the slate here against the A’s. Oakland is in the middle of the league in strikeout percentage against RHP in the last 2 weeks at 23.1%. Javier is striking out hitters at a high rate though. He’s really struggled on the road so far this year though which has me concerned a little. Javier does have 9 K’s in back to back starts here and one was against the Guardians, who don’t strikeout much against RHP. Javier is up over a K per inning this season and even with his road struggles, has 17 K’s in 13 innings on the road. ALL FORMATS
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Cristian Javier
- Kevin Guasman
- Lucas Giolito
- Eric Lauer
- Frankie Montas
- Martin Perez
- Julio Urias
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- Los Angeles Dodgers
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- New York Mets
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Boston Red Sox
DINGER OF THE DAY
May 30, 2022; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso (20) is covered with sunflower seeds in the dugout after hitting a solo home run in the eighth inning against the Washington Nationals at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
Pete Alonso
Alosno has been great of late for the Mets. The Mets have a wonderful matchup against the Nationals and Patrick Corbin here tonight too. Between him and J.D. Davis, they combined for 4 homers against him. Alonso is 11-32 with 2 doubles and 4 homers against Corbin in his career. Corbin has been really bad this year as a whole and the Mets are rolling right now.
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