MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Draftkings Fanduel Tuesday May 10th,2022

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…

Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)

No article for a few days, so no results yesterday

MAIN MLB DFS Slate (12 games)

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Kyle Wright (10.9k FD, 10k DK) vs BOS

Expensive starter here, the highest on Fanduel actually and 2nd highest on DraftKings. Wright has been really good for the Braves so far this year and is averaging over 40 FD Points and 24 DK points. He has 37 K’s in just 31 innings so far this year and has gone 6+ in all but 1 start. He did score poorly last time out against the Mets but still went 7 innings. The K’s were down there because the Mets don’t strikeout much. Boston has really struggled out of the gate this year. They are middle of the road with 22.4% strikeout rate to RHP in the last 2 weeks, but outside of Bogaerts, I’m not too worried about their offense here. ALL FORMATS

Garrett Whitlock (7.9k FD, 7.7k DK) @ ATL

Whitlock is getting another start here and was actually really good in his last start against the Angels, allowing just 2 runs and striking out 9 over 5 innings of work. The worry here is he doesn’t go deep into the game. The Sox starters haven’t been great either. Whitlock has allowed just 3 runs all season. The Braves come into this game with a 26.3% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks and are hitting just .229. If he can rack up the strikeouts in a hurry, he could have another 30-point game here on FD. GPP 

Justin Verlander (10.8k FD, 10.4k DK) @ MIN

Verlander has been great all season for the Astros after missing all of 2021 with Tommy John surgery. He has gone 6+ innings in 4 of his starts this year outside of his opening start to the season. We knew last game he wasn’t likely to strikeout a ton of hitters because SEA doesn’t strikeout a ton. MIN hasn’t been striking out a ton either of late against RHP. What I do love is his ability to get past the 6th innings in his age 39 season and after TJ no less. Minnesota is still likely without Correa tonight which hurts their lineup. The MIN team only has 66 AB’s against Verlander in their careers, but still have a 33.33% strikeout rate. Verlander looks great this year and I think he goes 6+ innings with 6+ strikeouts tonight. ALL FORMATS

Brad Keller (9k FD, 7.3k DK) @ TEX

Keller has looked pretty good this season for the Royals and now has a good matchup with the Rangers on the road. He has over 30 FD points in 4 of his 5 starts this year so far and over 18 DK points. TEX comes into this game after losing the series in New York and has a 27.7% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting under .200. Keller isn’t a big strikeout guy but he has shown that he can go deep into games. I like his price more on DraftKings than Fanduel here too. SP2 on DK cash for me.

Lucas Giolito (10.3k FD, 9.7k DK) vs CLE

Facing a Cleveland team that doesn’t strike out that much against RHP, but I like how he’s looked so far this year. His price is up there, but he has racked up 32 strike-outs in just 19.2 innings this year. He’s only gone more than 6 innings once this year so that is a concern here too. The Guardians don’t have a ton of history with Giolito which is surprising, but the way players move teams I see why. They have just 76 ABs against him, b ut are hitting just .145 with a 26.3% strikeout rate. I see the upside for Gio, but I don’t love the matchup. GPP

Corey Kluber (8.5k FD, 8.5k DK) @ LAA

Very tough matchup for Kluber here tonight, but the reason I’m interested is the amount of strikeouts in the Angels lineup. Their roster has just 3 guys with lower than 20% strikeout rate in their lineup and a good amount of guys over 24%. Their power is unmatched when they are hitting, but Kluber has looked good over his last 2 starts for the Rays. He struck out 13 in 12 innings over those 2 starts. For his price point, I don’t mind using him for GPPs and hoping that he can limit the power damage from the Angels and get a few strikeouts. GPP ONLY

Jesus Luzardo (10k FD, 9.1k DK) @ ARI

Luzardo has been great outside of 1 start for the Marlins so far this year. This pitching matchup in this game is much better than it was last night. Arizona still isn’t hitting great against LHP over the last month with a 22% strikeout rate, while hitting under .200. Luzardo has gone 6 innings in his last 2 starts, striking out 12 hitters. He has over 37 FD points in 4 of his first 5 starts too. I like how he’s looked so far in Miami. GPP

Mike Clevinger (7.6k FD, 6.9k DK) vs CHC

Wow, he is way too cheap here on both sites. I’m close to making him a CORE SP2 on DraftKings tonight at this price. In his first start back from Tommy John surgery, he went 4.2 innings and struggled with his command, but with a long layoff that he had, I’m not too surprised. The Guardians also don’t strikeout that much. Now, this start is a complete different dynamic. The Cubs are really struggling right now and have not score many runs over their last few games. The Cubbies come into this game with the highest strikeout rate against RHP in the league at 30% in the last 2 weeks. They are also hitting just .158 with an ISO of .-073. He didn’t really have any limitation in his first start as he threw 95 pitches in those 4.2 innings. If he can work on his command in this one and be more efficient, he will have a very, very good game. For his price, he’s way too cheap for his upside. ALL FORMATS.

Aaron Nola (9.7k FD, 8.9k DK) @ SEA

Seattle is a team that doesn’t usually strikeout a ton against RHP. They have a bunch of lefties in their lineup too. Nola has looked really good so far this year after a couple of bad starts. He has struck out 7, 9, 9 over his last 3 starts and 2 of those starts were against the Mets who don’t usually K much. Nola has so much upside here and Seattle went cold last night in a good matchup. Coming into this game, the Mariners only have a 22.4% strikeout rate against RHP, but are hitting just .227 with an ISO of .138. This isn’t an easy matchup as we saw last week Verlander was only able to strikeout 3 hitters, but Nola’s strikeouts have been up and he’s looked much better over his last 3 starts.

Robbie Ray (8.8k FD, 8.3k DK) vs PHI

The Phillies destroyed the Mariners last night 9-0 and SEA couldn’t get anything going. I don’t think Seattle will have a ton of success here tonight either but I do think this can be a good pitcher’s duel. Over the last month, the Phillies have a 27.2% strikeout rate against lefties. They aren’t hitting awful against lefties, but Ray can be very tough against LHB. The Phillies have just 2 lefties in their projected lineup though. Ray hasn’t looked like he did last year with Toronto yet, but he at least has gone 6+ innings in all but 1 start this season so far. The strikeouts will start to come for him and this matchup with a high strikeout team could be it. GPP

 

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1. Kyle Wright
2. Brad Keller
3. Mike Clevinger
4. Justin Verlander
5. Lucas Giolito
6. Aaron Nola
7. Garrett Whitlock
8. Jesus Luzardo
9. Corey Cluber
10. Robbie Ray

Top MLB Stacks: Main DFS Slate

1. San Diego Padres
2. Tampa Bay Rays
3. New York Mets
4. Miami Marlins
5. St. Louis Cardinals

DINGER OF THE DAY

Manny Machado

Machado has a really good matchup with Wade Miley tonight who is making his first start of the season after missing time with elbow inflammation. Machado has looked really good this year too for the Padres and seems to always go under the radar. He is hitting .500 against LHP so far this season with 5 of his HR coming against lefties. He also has only struck out 3 times in 30 AB’s against lefties too with 5 walks. I love this matchup and love his chances of hitting one out tonight.

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