MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)
MAIN MLB DFS Slate (6 games)
Pablo Lopez (10.5k FD, 10k DK) vs ARI
Lopez has been really good for the Marlins this year so far. I know the price is expensive for him but I really like him in this spot. He’s gone 6+ innings in his last 2 starts, and has 15 strikeouts in those 2 combined. He’s allowed just 1 ER this season through 4 starts and we have another great matchup against the DiamondBacks. Arizona comes into this game with a 25.2% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks while hitting just over .200. At home this year in 2 starts he has not allowed a run yet and is limiting hitters to just a .189 wOBA and .163 BAA. Love the spot here for Lopez.
Apr 27, 2022; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) throws to the Washington Nationals during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Chris Paddack (7.8k FD, 7.2k DK) @ BAL
Paddack had a good start last time out against the Tigers. One worry with him is he hasn’t gone 6 innings in any of his starts this year yet. He does have a good matchup with the Orioles here though on the road. BAL won a nice series with the Red Sox over the weekend, but overall still striking out a good amount to RHP. In the last 2 weeks, BAL has a 24% strikeout rate against RHP. Paddack is a guy who allows some hits and doesn’t usually strikeout a ton. If he can keep the ball down he could have a good game against Baltimore.
Max Fried (9.6k FD, 9.3k DK) @ NYM
The Mets are a dangerous offense, we know that but Fried has looked good since his Opening Day start that wasn’t that good. The strikeouts aren’t going to be super high for him but the Mets come into this game with a 25.2% strikeout rate against LHP. Their offense isn’t hitting with a ton of power against lefties either in the last couple of weeks with just a .088 ISO. The names in the lineup are scary, but on a small slate I don’t mind using Fried in GPPs. The Mets roster has just a .235 batting average against him with a 28.5% strikeout rate. Risky GPP option, but I don’t hate it.
Chris Bassitt (10k FD, 9.6k DK) vs ATL
Tougher matchup now with Acuna back for the Braves here tonight. Outside of that, the Braves lineup doesn’t strikeout a ton against RHP. In the last 2 weeks, they are middle of the league with a 23% strikeout rate against RHP. Bassitt has struck out 6+ in all 4 of his starts so far this year for the Mets going 6 innings in all 4 of them too. One game this season allowing more than 3 hits in a game and if he can keep his command in tack and not walk a ton of guys and keep the ball in the yard he could continue to build on his good start.
Drew Rasmussen (8.2k FD, 8.3k DK) @ OAK
Oakland over the last 2 weeks against RHP have a 25% strikeout rate with just a .100 ISO. Rasmussen struck out 9 Mariners in his last start and it was the first time he went 6 innings in a start this season. That is encouraging to see since the Rays like to limit their starters innings. He’s striking out a batter per inning and allowing just 1 baserunner per inning so far through 4 starts. He’s in the middle of the pack for pricing which I don’t mind on a small slate here tonight.
Zac Gallen (9.1k FD, 7.6k DK) @ MIA
Love both starters in this game as both offenses aren’t that great. Gallen has looked good this year, allowing just 1 ER in 3 starts. He has slowly increased his innings in every start so far and has just under a strikeout per inning. He has allowed exactly 2 hits in all 3 starts, keeping the walks to a low and putting together some strikeouts. The Marlins have a 25.1% strikeout rate in the last 2 weeks against RHP. They are hitting better than the DBacks, but I can see this game where the pitcher’s duel and the hitters struggle.
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Pablo Lopez
- Zac Gallen
- Max Fried
- Chris Bassitt
- Drew Rasmussen
- Chris Paddack
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Top MLB Stacks: Main DFS Slate
- Houston Astros
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Minnesota Twins
- Seattle Mariners
DINGER OF THE DAY
Apr 29, 2022; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Alex Bregman
Bregman is my dinger of the day call against Marco Gonzales. So far this year, Gonzales has just 1 start on the road but he really struggled in that 1 start allowing 3 HR. He’s allowed 4 HR against RHB so far this season already as well. Righties are hitting him very well too. Last season, Gonzales allowed 23 home-runs against righties. Bregman is 9-29 (.310) against Gonzales in his career with 3 doubles and a triple. He doesn’t have a HR yet against him, but I think regardless Bregman has a good game here.
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