MLB DFS Top Pitcher Breakdown Strategy | Draftkings Fanduel Friday May 6th, 2022

MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money.  But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.

Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate.  For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here.  And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com.  They are easy to find and learn.

You’ll never know where you’re going unless you look back at where you’ve been…

Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)

1. Jose Urquidy (31 FD, 15.3 DK)
2. Shane McClanahan (31 FD, 19 DK)
3. Robbie Ray (23 FD, 12.2DK)
4. Jesus Luzardo (37 FD, 19.9 DK)
5. Aaron Nola (43 FD, 25.35 DK)

   Pretty solid pitching night last night. Everyone that I wrote up had pretty decent games. It was a small slate though. Tonight is much larger with many options! Lets get right to it!

MAIN MLB DFS Slate (13 games)

We have MASSIVE weather issues tonight for some of the east coast games starting at 7pm. I don’t want to waste too much time on the pitchers for those games since it does look like Mark, our weather guy is giving most of them a 60% delay risk and high PPD risk with the rain moving its way east tonight.
Unfortunately, there are some guys in these games that I would have really liked to write up, but the weather risk is not worth it for me tonight. 

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Nathan Eovaldi (8.5k FD, 9k DK) vs CWS

With 3 of the first 4 games likely going to have a major weather impact, the first guy I’m talking about is Eovaldi. Look, he’s not too expensive on either site here tonight. He’s gone 7 innings in back-to-back starts against TOR and BAL, throwing very good games. Outside of not going deep into games, Eovaldi has been really good for the Red Sox. Great strikeout stuff, endurance to go 7+ over his last two starts helps too. I like his upside here, but CWS is a team that doesn’t strike out a ton against RHP. There is some risk, but overall I’m liking how he’s throwing lately. GPP

Kevin Gausman (10.4k FD, 10k DK) @ CLE

It looks like the TOR/CLE game is the lowest of the risks for PPD, but Mark still has it at 40% chance. There is still a ton of risk in this game, but I wanted to write them up in case we get some optimism that they play. Gausman has looked really good since coming over to Toronto in the off-season. In 5 starts, he has over 8 strikeouts in 4 of them, with just a 1 WHIP and 2.27 ERA. He has the ability to rack up strikeouts in a hurry. This CLE team is a good hitting team, but Gausman can limit damage and strikeout a bunch of guys. Since we have weather issues in this game, I will be limiting him to just MME at like 5%. If we get news that weather is going to be better here, I will up my exposure. MME ONLY

Shane Bieber (9.8k FD, 8.7k DK) vs TOR

Same weather issues as Gausman, so again I will be keeping my exposure low to Bieber unless we get word that Mark thinks this game will play out. Another 5% MME type play with the rain problems. Bieber has been good for CLE though this year. Going 6+ innings in 4 straight starts, getting a strikeout per inning. Facing a tough Toronto offense though there is some risk. One thing that is positive, is this year they have 5 hitters in their projected lineup that have over a 23% strikeout rate on the road against RHP. Bieber has recorded 4 straight QS which is big on Fanduel. MME ONLY

Eric Lauer (9.5k FD, 10.3k DK) @ ATL

Very tough matchup here against the Braves on the road, but man Lauer has been outstanding for the Brewers so far this season. In his last 3 starts, he has recorded 11, 13, and 5 strikeouts. In his last 2, he has 24 strikeouts in 13 innings. Lauer has really made a jump this season and I’m excited to see how his season plays out. Lauer has recorded a QS in 3 of his first 4 starts this season after only going 4.1 innings in his first start. So far through about 25 games this year, the Braves have the 5th highest strikeout rate against LHP at 25.5%. We do have major upside for Lauer in the strikeout department even though they have a ton of right-handed hitters in their lineup. Something that I see while researching is he has been really good against RHB, allowing just a .197 batting average against with a .249 wOBA. That will be huge for him tonight as the Braves will roll out 7-8 righties in their lineup with Olson being one of the only lefties. I love the upside we have in Lauer tonight to rack up more strikeouts. GPP given the matchup

Josh Winder (6.5k FD, 6.4k DK) vs OAK

Winder looked amazing in his first MLB start against the Rays, going 6 innings and racking up 7 strikeouts while allowing just 3 baserunners. He has made 3 other appearances this season out of the bullpen for the Twins and has looked pretty good in those too. Oakland is an offense we will be targeting a lot this year, but surprisingly they have been hitting the ball pretty well. Looking at some scouting reports for WInder, he has a good curveball that he commands well in the zone. Winder has good command on all 4 of his pitches, but won’t typically strikeout a ton of hitters. Seeing him strike out 7 in his first start is encouraging though. Oakland comes into this game with a 27.8% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks, while hitting just .176 nad having an ISO of .086. I see major upside for his price point here tonight. LEAN GPP, Solid SP2 on DK.

Luis Garcia (8.5k FD, 7.4k DK) vs DET

Good matchup for Garcia in this one tonight. He hasn’t been amazing this season, but has faced 3 very tough offenses in his 4 starts. This one against the Tigers is a much easier matchup than he’s faced over his last 3 starts. He has still been getting over a strikeout per inning in those starts and now faces a Tigers lineup that has a 25.81% strikeout rate to RHP on the road this year. Only Meadows has under a 20% strikeout rate. As a team in the last 2 weeks against RHP, the Tigers have a 26.3% strikeout rate (3rd highest) with a low ISO of .079. If Garcia can keep the ball in the yard here, he should have another good start and his price isn’t bad. ALL FORMATS

Michael Lorenzen (7.9k FD, 4.9k DK) vs WSH

Not fully sure who is going to be starting for the Angels here tonight against Washington, but if it is Lorenzen I do have some interest in him on DraftKings as an SP2 at 4.9k. He last started on the 1st, so today would be the 5th day and I assume he starts here. He hasn’t been able to rack up the strikeouts since moving into the rotation this year, but he has been doing a fairly good job. Washington is coming out of Coors after a really good series there but sometimes we see a Coors hangover in the first game of the next series with no days off in between. If we in fact get news that he is going to be the starter tonight, it’s hard to not make him a CORE piece on DK as he is priced as a RP not a starter. ***I put this in RED because I’m not sure if he’s going to start or who the Angels will start in this game***

Merrill Kelly (8.9k FD, 8.2k DK) vs COL

Colorado coming out of Coors here to face the Diamondbacks with Kelly seems like Kelly should have a good start here tonight. He’s been really good for the Dbacks this season. In 5 starts, he’s allowed runs in just 3 of them and has a QS in 3 straight games. Kelly has faced some good offenses of late too with STL, LAD, WSH, HOU, and SD in his 5 starts and he has managed to pitch very well in all of them. Colorado on the road we know isn’t as great as they are at home. Kelly isn’t a guy that will strike out a ton of hitters as we have seen his K’s drop since his opening start. He has faced offenses that don’t strike out much though. COL has a 21.8% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks while hitting just .185 and a low OPS of .619. I love his upside and his ability to go 6+ innings in this one tonight. ALL FORMATS

Chad Kuhl (9k FD, 8.2k DK) @ ARI

Kuhl has turned it around with the Rockies after struggling with the Pirates. He won’t be a huge strikeout guy, but he has shown in 4 starts that he can get into the 6th inning or later. This is a good matchup with Arizona though even though they did have a good game over the past couple days. At home, against RHP though their projected lineup has a 27.78% strikeout rate, with just one guy under 25%. Kuhl hasn’t allowed a ton of baserunners and is on a nice 3 win, 3 QS streak for the Rockies. Overall against RHP in the last 2 weeks, the Dbacks have a 25.7% strikeout rate. GPP

Yu Darvish (10.2k FD, 9.4k DK) vs MIA

The Marlins don’t strike out a ton against RHP, but Darvish has some nasty stuff. He has 3 straight QS for the Padres. He did allow a season-high 8 hits last start against the lowly Pirates. He’s had just one really bad start this year against the Giants, but other than that he has been doing well. Outside of that 9 ER game, he’s allowed fewer than 3 ER in his 4 other starts. Since coming to the Padres, Darvish has been much better at home in San Diego. Last season he allowed a .275 wOBA at home with a 32.7% strikeout rate. At home so far this year he has 12.2 innings with 15 strikeouts and allowed just 1 ER. I do like his safety and upside here. ALL FORMATS

Logan Gilbert (9.3k FD, 9.2k DK) vs TBR

Gilbert has started this year very well for the Mariners which is something they need. I’m not in love with the price tag on either site for a guy who has pitched 6 innings just one time this season. He isn’t a big strikeout guy, but getting close to 1 K per inning. The Rays offense has a 23.7% strikeout rate against RHP in the last 2 weeks. Looking at the Rays lineup, they have some big strikeout guys against RHP. The top of their order likely won’t K much, but the bottom half has a lot of strikeouts to be had in Kiermaier, Walls, Mejia, and Phillips. He’s scored over 33 FD points in every start this year and over 20 DK points in all of them too. ALL FORMATS

PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN

1. Merrill Kelly
2. Yu Darvish
3. Logan Gilbert
4. Luis Garcia
5. Josh Winder (CORE SP2 on DK)
6. Eric Lauer (love him for GPPs with massive upside)
7. Chad Kuhl
8. Nathan Eovaldi
9. Kevin Gausman (watch weather)
10. Shane Bieber (watch weather, that’s why these guys are so low)
11. Michael Lorenzen (if he starts, he gets bumped up, esp on DK)

Top MLB Stacks: Main DFS Slate

1. Milwaukee Brewers
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Houston Astros
4. Los Angeles Angels
5. Boston Red Sox
6. St. Louis Cardinals
7. San Francisco Giants

DINGER OF THE DAY

Jared Walsh

Little different dinger of the day call for me tonight. Walsh looks absolutely locked in at the plate right now. Ended the series with Boston going 5-9 with 2 HR and 8 RBI in the last 2 games. He now faces off against the Nationals in Joan Adon. So far, Adon has allowed 3 HR against lefties this season.

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