MLB DFS pitching breakdowns are key to starting a winning lineup. Finding the best matchups form the foundation to a cash game lineup, and the sneaky matchups exploiting deeper dives find those under-the-radar pitchers capable of winning huge tournament money. But, knowing which pitcher is best suited for which DFS game format sets you apart from the rest of the casual, fishy players out there just lighting their money on fire nightly.
Our MLB pitching guru, MDell (Matt), walks you through the strategy and metrics for today’s slate. For an even deeper dive into timeless MLB Pitching Strategy, click here. And, for proper definitions of the many stats used below, head to Fangraphs.com. They are easy to find and learn.
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Yesterday’s MLB Pitcher Results: (here I will post fantasy points from the previous day’s picks)
No article the last few days because I was covering cheat sheets for us!
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Julio Urias (8.8k FD, 9.2k DK) @ PHI
Urias has been pretty good this year and the Phillies still could be without Harper in this one. THere are some hitters that I don’t mind for the Phillies, but overall they have a fairly high strikeout rate against LHP. Over the last 2 weeks, they have a 28.4% strikeout rate to LHP. Their projected lineup (assuming Harper is back in) has a 29% strikeout rate at home to lefties and the bottom of this order has a lot of them. I do think that Urias has a better start than he did last time out against PHI. Still going to LEAN GPP
Nestor Cortes (10.2k FD, 10.6k DK) vs CWS
Facing the White Sox again in back to back starts does worry me a little bit here, but Nasty Nestor has been amazing this year for the Yankees. He has really just 1 bad start and has not allowed more than 2 ER in a start this season. I don’t love his pricing on both sites, but he has earned the high price. He has scored over 40 FD points in 4 of his 7 starts and 3 went for over 50. On DraftKings, he’s gone for over 30 in 3 starts. We have to watch the weather in this one tonight, but Mark thinks they will be able to play. Chicago has a 25.3% strikeout rate against LHP in the last 2 weeks and he struck out 7 over 8 innings last time out against this same team. ALL FORMATS
Hyun Jin Ryu (6.4k FD, 8.3k DK) vs CIN
Look, I know Ryu hasn’t been good this year in 3 starts for the Jays, but he was dealing with an injury early on and missed a bunch of time. He looked better when he came back against TB and allowed just a HR early on. This matchup against CIN is much better than the Rays. He’s really cheap, but he’s risky. The Reds come into this game with a 25.4% strikeout rate against LHP with not much power in the last 2 weeks. There are a couple of guys I worry about against him, but I think he’s cheap enough to make sense for some MME builds. GPP
May 14, 2022; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Sean Manaea (55) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Tarik Skubal (9.5k FD, 9.5k DK) @ CLE
Don’t love the matchup here with the Guardians who don’t strikeout much, but they could be without their cornerstone bat in the lineup as I think Ramirez is going to miss some time after fouling a ball off his shin in yesterdays game. Skubal has been really good this season for the Tigers and has a 28% strikeout rate on the season. CLE likely will have a lot of righties in the lineup here and he has a 28% strikeout rate against righties. He’s been able to rack up strikeouts so far this year and I do like using him for GPPs. GPP ONLY
Robbie Ray (9.1k FD, 8k DK) @ BOS
Ray faced the Sox 4 times last year when he was with the Jays and wasn’t bad against them. He was 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA and struck out over a batter per inning. He did allow some HR against them though. Hernande has 5 HR in his career against Ray, but the Sox as a team have a 32.3% strikeout rate against him, while hitting .255. They have a total of 12 HR against him in his career and Story is feeling it at the plate right now. Story is another guy with 3 HR against Ray. If he can get around those 2 guys, I do think he can have an okay start here. Over his last 2 starts he’s been much better in the strikeout department with 19 K’s over his last 11.2 innings. He has the strikeout upside, but has been allowing runs this year. Despite that, He still can get enough K’s to score well. I think Fanduel scoring is better than DK for him tonight. GPP
Michael Wacha (8.2k FD, 7.4k DK) vs SEA
Wacha has looked really good for the Red Sox so far this season and was great before landing on the IL before his last start. Seattle’s bottom half of the lineup has a ton of strikeouts in it against RHP. Their top 4 in the proj lineup all have under a 17% strikeout rate to RHP, but 5-9 all have over a 25% strikeout rate. He isn’t a big strikeout guy normally, but could pick up a few more tonight with the bottom of this order striking gout a ton against RHP. Lean GPP FD, Cash viable as an SP2 on DK.
Eric Lauer (10.4k FD, 10.4k DK) vs WSH
Washington isn’t an easy matchup for Lauer, but he’s been amazing this season. He has a 35.5% strikeout rate this year and has been mowing guys down. He looks very good this year. Washington hasn’t hit for much power against LHP over the last 2 weeks either. Washington’s projected lineup has a .288 wOBA against LHP on the road so far this year but still have a low K rate. I do think with how he’s been throwing this year he has upside in this matchup though if he can get around some of their power bats. ALL FORMATS
Martin Perez (8.9. FD, 7k DK) @ HOU
Perez has actually looked very good this season for the Rangers. He has a tough task with the Astros here in this one but he’s been almost averaging 6 innings per start this year and isn’t getting barreled up much. He has gone 6+ innings in all but his first 2 starts this year and has not allowed more than 1 ER in any start since the first 2. Houston can be dangerous against lefties, but their recent stats show that Perez could have some success here. In the last 2 weeks, Houston has a 23% strikeout rate, but are hitting just .173 against lefties. The power is there still, but if Perez can limit the HR, he could have a good start again here. GPP
Chase Silseth (6.4k FD, 7.8k DK) vs OAK
Good matchup here for Silseth in his 2nd MLB start against the Athletics. He looked good in his MLB debut too, allowing just 1 hit over 6 innings. OAK comes into this game with a 21% strikeout rate against RHP while hitting just .203 and have an ISO of .084. Pitching on a team with this great offense has him getting chances to wins everytime he gets the chance to start here. If he makes another good start, he could stay up in the bigs as a 6th man in the Angels rotation. Oakland on the road has a 24% strikeout rate against RHP and they have just a .253 wOBA and only Seth Brown has great power. I like the upside for this hard throwing youngster here. GPP
Sean Manaea (9.9k FD, 10.2k DK) @ SFG
Decent pitchers park to throw in this start here. Manaea has been really good for the Padres this year and has been racking up strikeouts. He’s almost at a 30% strikeout rate on the season so far. The Giants do have some power against lefties, but also have guys who strikeout a ton against lefties. THey do have some power, but Manaea has been great and he’s a guy that can limit damage and get well over a K per inning. ALL FORMATS
PITCHER RANKINGS MAIN
- Nestor Cortes
- Sean Manaea
- Hyun-Jin Ryu
- Julio Urias
- Chase Silseth
- Eric Lauer
- Martin Perez
- Michael Wacha
- Robbie Ray
- Tarik Skubal
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Top MLB Stacks: MAIN DFS Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- New York Yankees
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Minnesota Twins
- Los Angeles Angels
DINGER OF THE DAY
Trevor Story
May 19, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox second baseman Trevor Story (10) hits a three run home run against the Seattle Mariners in the eighth inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Story has come alive with the Red Sox over the last week. Over the last 7 days, he is 8-24 with 4 HR and 9 RBI. He’s been looking good at the plate and seems to have settled in with Boston now. He has a matchup with Ray which he’s had success in his career against too. I hate to pick a guy after he hit 3 HR last night, but the upside is there against the lefty. He is 8-27 with 3 HR and 10 walks against Ray in his career.
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