Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/8:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Chris Paddack
- Alek Manoah
- Max Scherzer
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New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies – Game 1
Pitchers:
Mets – Chris Bassitt
Phillies – Zach Eflin
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
NYM 5-star plays: Starling Marte
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil, Dominic Smith
GPP Note: Team ISO of .110 over the last week.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber
GPP Note: Team ISO of .208 over the last week.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies – Game 2
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. What a wild ending to Thursday night’s game between these two. The Mets put up 7 in the top of 9th to pick up the W. I think we see a bit of a hangover for the Phillies as they could be without Castellanos due to being hit by a pitch tonight. Scherzer is always ready to go and he’s going to be one of my favorite spend-ups.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Lindor is 15 for 45 with 3 HRs against Gibson.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Herrera is 16 for 56 with 7 extra-base hits against Scherzer.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves (-120)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Aaron Ashby
Braves – Charlie Morton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I am shocked to see the Braves favored in this one. Morton has looked extremely bad this season while the Brewers’ offense has been rolling. I do expect Ashby to have some hiccups at some point but he’s been strongest against RHBs in his MLB career.
MIL 5-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Christian Yelich
GPP Note: Team ISO of .263 over the last week.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Matt Olson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-135)
Pitchers:
Pirates – Zach Thompson
Reds – Tyler Mahle
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. There are some impressively strong BvP numbers in this game, despite both teams being trash offensively. On the surface, Mahle seems like a strong SP but the issue is that he struggles when pitching at home. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a 6-5 type game.
PIT 5-star plays: Ke’Bryan Hayes
4-star plays: Ben Gamel, Bryan Reynolds
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
CIN 5-star plays: Tyler Naquin
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 at home this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (-180)
Pitchers:
A’s – Daulton Jefferies
Twins – Chris Paddack
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. I keep expecting a Paddack struggle but he has gotten better as he has gone along to begin this season. He gets a very plus match-up, in a very low-total game. We have to be pretty overweight on Paddack (price depending). The Twins’ offense should be in a decent spot but we need to learn the statuses of Correa and Buxton.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jed Lowrie
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .191 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros
Pitchers:
Tigers – Undecided
Astros – Jake Odorizzi
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Schoop
GPP Note: Team ISO of .091 against RHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles (-120) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Royals – Carlos Hernandez or Daniel Lynch
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is another series that I have zero interest in watching. Maybe we see the Royals bats start to wake up but they’ve been pretty rough to begin the season. The Orioles have hit a few more HRs recently so they could be GPP winners against a struggling Hernandez. Lyles is going to make my notes on site because this Royals squad just isn’t getting it done right now.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles – Game 2
Pitchers:
Royals – Zack Greinke
Orioles – Bruce Zimmermann
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. Realize that SPs may swap between the two games so we need to monitor the official lineups for each game.
KC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: Team ISO of .185 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres (-160)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Trevor Rogers
Padres – Joe Musgrove
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. On the season, 10 of the 22 hits allowed by Rogers have gone for extra bases. Musgrove gets a plus match-up but every time we have picked on the Marlins recently, they’ve annoyed us. Saturday night they waited until after Manaea left the game to blow up. The total is going to put everybody on Musgrove.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jazz Chisholm Jr, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .107 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .133 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Angels (-190)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Erick Fedde
Angels – Patrick Sandoval
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. The Angels have let us down a bit the last couple of days so I am torn on how to handle them. Their ownership numbers should fall which is generally a time we want to double/triple down. Sandoval has been spectacular so far this season so I think he’s definitely worth the play.
WSH 5-star plays: Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Jared Walsh
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Shohei Ohtani
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox (-140)
Pitchers:
White S0x – Dallas Keuchel
Red Sox – Michael Wacha
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I have no idea why this game starts so early. What I do know is that Keuchel has been really bad for the White Sox so the Boston bats should be in a prime spot. On the other side, Luis Robert and Tim Anderson have been rolling at the plate and this game could definitely get to 10+ runs.
CWS 5-star plays: Luis Robert
4-star plays: AJ Pollock, Jose Abreu
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: JD Martinez
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Bobby Dalbec
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
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Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Alek Manoah
Guardians – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor, Steven Kwan
GPP Note: Team ISO of .069 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees (-245) – Game 1
Pitchers:
Rangers – Dane Dunning
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Dunning has been solid over his last couple of starts. I don’t think he’s that strong of an SP and he now takes on a Yankees offense that’s showing off their power. The Rangers’ offense has been disappointing to begin the season and now they take on Cole after he looked dominant. Cole offers us some tremendous upside today.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .096 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton
GPP Note: Team has 23 HRs in 13 home games this season.
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees (-190) – Game 2
Pitchers:
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Yankees – Jordan Montgomery
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. It’s really strange to see a doubleheader at Yankee stadium and have both games with a total of 7.5 or under. Montgomery has always been steady with K ability while Otto feels due for a bit of regression in 2022. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Yankees hit 6+ HRs in the games today.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Marcus Semien, Andy Ibanez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .096 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team has 23 HRs in 13 home games this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners (-125)
Pitchers:
Rays – Ryan Yarbrough
Mariners – George Kirby
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Kirby is one of the top SP prospects in ALL of baseball. He gets to make his debut, as a favorite today. Yarbrough has been horrible so far in 2022 so the Mariners are really intriguing but they haven’t been destroying the ball like they did the first few weeks.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ty France, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 against LHPs this season.
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St Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (-130)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Dakota Hudson
Giants – Jakob Junis
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7.5. Both SPs have been strong so far in 2022 with Junis being really impressive. We saw a lot of runs in last night’s game but with the shorter turnaround, I think we could see a bit of an offensive hangover. I actually like the Cardinals to pick up the win in this spot.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Juan Yepez, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .174 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford
GPP Note: Team ISO of .083 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-185) @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Walker Buehler
Cubs – Marcus Stroman
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Stroman is coming off of a dominant start against a hot Milwaukee team but he had been rough prior to that. I think the Dodgers could cause some issues for him. Buehler is one of my favorite pitchers in all of baseball. He gets disrespected so much by the wannabe smart Twitter guys. I so badly want to call a 7 inning, 10 K performance for him tonight.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .120 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-150)
Pitchers:
Rockies – German Marquez
D’Backs – Zac Gallen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I can’t believe I recommended the D’Backs as a top stack last night. I won’t be forgetting how stupid I was. With that said, the D’Backs had been showing some power recently and they could showcase some against a struggling Marquez right now. Gallen looks like the Gallen of a couple of years ago, now that he’s healthy.
COL 5-star plays: Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Ryan McMahon
GPP Note: Team ISO of .141 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: David Peralta
4-star plays: Ketel Marte, Christian Walker
GPP Note: Team ISO of .234 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Houston Astros
MLB Dinger of the Day – Joey Gallo, Yankees
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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