Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/7:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Dylan Cease
- Framber Valdez
- Max Scherzer
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New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. What a wild ending to Thursday night’s game between these two. The Mets put up 7 in the top of 9th to pick up the W. I think we see a bit of a hangover for the Phillies as they could be without Castellanos due to being hit by a pitch tonight. Scherzer is always ready to go and he’s going to be one of my favorite spend-ups.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Lindor is 15 for 45 with 3 HRs against Gibson.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Herrera is 16 for 56 with 7 extra-base hits against Scherzer.
Milwaukee Brewers (-115) @ Atlanta Braves
Pitchers:
Brewers – Corbin Burnes
Braves – Max Fried
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. Fried faces off against a pretty hot offense but he comes in as a guy that’s been best against RHBs in his MLB career. I would NOT be shocked to see this game end up as a 2-1 or 3-2 final. I will have a couple of MIL stacks based on how well they’ve been hitting the baseball.
MIL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willy Adames, Luis Urias
GPP Note: Team ISO of .178 against LHPs this season.
ATL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Team ISO of .161 against RHPs this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-115) @ Cincinnati Reds – Game 1
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Reds – Connor Overton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Talk about a series of lackluster proportions. I am not interested in watching these two teams play, at all. From a fantasy perspective, I don’t think we need to be considering the pitching while maybe looking at each side as a mini-stack option thanks to the small ballpark in Cincinnati. Brubaker can flash upside but I just don’t think we need to consider the pain this game can bring us.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ben Gamel, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 at home this season.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds – Game 2
Pitchers:
Pirates – Mitch Keller
Reds – Robert Dugger
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bryan Reynolds, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Kyle Farmer, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 at home this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (-190)
Pitchers:
A’s – James Kapriellian
Twins – Sonny Gray
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. Kapriellian looked rough in his season debut and I think he is going to need a few starts to shake off the rust. The Twins welcome Gray back from the IL so while he has a great match-up, he may be limited a bit in this start. We will need to monitor the news for any pitch count restrictions.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sheldon Neuse
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Trevor Larnach, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .164 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros (-190)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Eduardo Rodriguez
Astros – Framber Valdez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I want to be right back on the Astros after they let me down Friday night. Eduardo has some early-season struggles that HOU could take advantage of. Valdez should be a strong SP option for us. I am kind of intrigued by Torkelson because I’ve seen him handle some pitches down in the zone with power.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Spencer Torkelson
GPP Note: Team ISO of .079 against LHPs.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week.
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Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles (-120)
Pitchers:
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is another series that I have zero interest in watching. Maybe we see the Royals bats start to wake up but they’ve been pretty rough to begin the season. The Orioles have hit a few more HRs recently so they could be GPP winners against a struggling Hernandez. Lyles is going to make my notes on site because this Royals squad just isn’t getting it done right now.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .077 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres (-130)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Pablo Lopez
Padres – Sean Manaea
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. Much like Friday night’s match-up, we get a strong SP match-up that leads me to think it’ll go under the Vegas total again. I don’t have a desire to pick on either pitcher but I will have a couple of mini-stacks, especially Machado-Hosmer combinations with how they are swinging the bat.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar, Jorge Soler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Angels (-170)
Pitchers:
Nationals – Josiah Gray
Angels – Michael Lorenzen
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Gray has flashed some upside and we did see the Angels’ bats struggle a bit last night with the strikeout. Lorenzen looked strong in his last start, taking a shutout into the 9th inning. I am generally a big-time fan of Lorenzen so I will have some shares against the team who just came out of a series in Coors.
WSH 5-star plays: Yadiel Hernandez
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox (-125) @ Boston Red Sox
Pitchers:
White S0x – Dylan Cease
Red Sox – Nick Pivetta
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Cease has some big-time upside with his impressive K stuff. We know that the Red Sox have struggled to begin this season. I love attacking Pivetta with bats so I can guarantee you that I will have many White Sox stacks in an attempt to pick up the 3 HRs they will most likely hit.
CWS 5-star plays: Jose Abreu
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .149 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts
GPP Note: Team ISO of .129 over the last week.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-150) @ Cleveland Guardians – Game 1
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. We have a great SP match-up in a game that might not take place (weather). I have zero desire to stack against either SP and will look to use just a one-off here and there because of the power upside of a few players. Gausman has been spectacular with the Blue Jays and he faces a Guardians lineup that overachieved the first few weeks of the season. Bieber isn’t completely back to pre-surgery Bieber but he looks good.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .069 over the last week.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Guardians – Game 2
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Ross Stripling
Guardians – Triston McKenzie
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. I really think we could see some HR fireworks in this game. Stripling can allow plenty of contact and RH power bats are DEFINITELY a thing against McKenzie.
TOR 5-star plays: Vlad Guerrero Jr
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, Zack Collins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .162 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: Josh Naylor
4-star plays: Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
GPP Note: Team ISO of .069 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees (-230)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. This game has been PPD due to weather, again.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team has 23 HRs in 13 home games this season.
Tampa Bay Rays (-140) @ Seattle Mariners
Pitchers:
Rays – Drew Rasmussen
Mariners – Marco Gonzales
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. I want to believe one of these offenses can win us a GPP tonight but it’s one of those match-ups that I find kind of middling. The SPs are guys that I don’t generally want exposure to but they aren’t guys that I am hurrying to stack against either. I will have a stack or two against Gonzales but that’s because I always want a Rays stack.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .151 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Adam Frazier
GPP Note: Team ISO of .145 over the last week.
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St Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (-145)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Steven Matz
Giants – Logan Webb
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7. We have discussed how dominant the Giants have been at home in Logan Webb’s starts. I never stack against Webb as I truly believe that he’s made a legit leap into the ace territory. Matz is an arm that could strike out 10 or he could give up 6 in 3 innings and look totally lost out there.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .164 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: Austin Slater
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .051 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-230) @ Chicago Cubs – Game 1
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Clayton Kershaw
Cubs – Drew Smyly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Kershaw has excellent to begin this season and now he takes on a weak Cubs lineup on what I presume is a cool and windy day at Wrigley. Generally, when we see a total of just 7 at Wrigley, we can assume the wind is blowing in. I like the way the Dodgers’ bats lineup against Smyly.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Trea Turner, Justin Turner
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Willson Contreras
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs – Game 2
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Cubs – Daniel Norris
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Chris Taylor, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .144 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .118 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-120)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Kyle Freeland
D’Backs – Zach Davies
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. I can see there being 10+ runs scored in this game but we also have to remember that this is Colorado’s second game after being at Coors for a stretch. There are some plus BvP spots for Arizona bats and I really like using RHBs against Davies and his reverse splits.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Elias Diaz
GPP Note: Team ISO of .163 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Nick Ahmed, David Peralta
GPP Note: Team ISO of .261 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Arizona Diamondbacks (Never thought I’d have them in my top 3 this season)
- Los Angeles Angels
MLB Dinger of the Day – Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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