Full Slate Breakdown for MLB DFS 5/6:
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My Take on a Consistent MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Gerrit Cole (PPD)
- Josh Winder
- Max Scherzer (PPD)
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New York Mets (-140) @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers:
Mets – Max Scherzer
Phillies – Kyle Gibson
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. What a wild ending to Thursday night’s game between these two. The Mets put up 7 in the top of 9th to pick up the W. I think we see a bit of a hangover for the Phillies as they could be without Castellanos due to being hit by a pitch tonight. Scherzer is always ready to go and he’s going to be one of my favorite spend ups.
NYM 5-star plays: Francisco Lindor
4-star plays: Jeff McNeil
GPP Note: Lindor is 15 for 45 with 3 HRs against Gibson.
PHI 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Odubel Herrera, Bryce Harper
GPP Note: Herrera is 16 for 56 with 7 extra-base hits against Scherzer.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves (EVEN)
Pitchers:
Brewers – Eric Lauer
Braves – Jesse Chavez
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. We have gotten the announcement that Chavez will start but I have a feeling it’s an opening situation with somebody like Strider to follow. The Brewers offense has been rolling while Lauer has been electric on the mound. I do not believe Lauer is suddenly a big time strikeout pitcher, so there is a chance for some regression. The Braves offense should wake up at some point as they are far too talented to be under .500.
MIL 5-star plays: Willy Adames
4-star plays: Rowdy Tellez
GPP Note: Adames has 7 HRs and 17 RBI over his last 10 games.
ATL 5-star plays: Marcel Ozuna
4-star plays: Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
GPP Note: Ozuna is 6 for 9 with 3 HRs against Lauer.
Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) @ Cincinnati Reds
Pitchers:
Pirates – JT Brubaker
Reds – Connor Overton
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. Talk about a series of lackluster proportions. I am not interested in watching these two teams play, at all. From a fantasy perspective, I don’t think we need to be considering the pitching while maybe looking at each side as a mini-stack option thanks to the small ballpark in Cincinnati. Brubaker can flash upside but I just don’t think we need to consider the pain this game can bring us.
PIT 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ben Gamel, Daniel Vogelbach
GPP Note: Team ISO of .109 against RHPs this season.
CIN 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas, Tommy Pham
GPP Note: Team ISO of .142 at home this season.
Oakland Athletics @ Minnesota Twins (-180)
Pitchers:
A’s – Zach Logue
Twins – Josh Winder
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7.5. The Twins will be without Correa for a period of time after being hit on the hand last night. What we get out of that is the debut of Royce Lewis, the #1 pick back in 2017. As a Twins fan, I am extremely excited to see him at the MLB level. Logue went down and made 4 starts in the minors and he wasn’t very good. This feels like a great spot for the Twins lineup. Winder is on my radar again after he hooked us up big time in his first MLB start.
OAK 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Sheldon Neuse
GPP Note: Team ISO of .112 against RHPs this season.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Royce Lewis, Max Kepler
GPP Note: Team ISO of .154 over the last week.
Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros (-200)
Pitchers:
Tigers – Beau Brieske
Astros – Luis Garcia
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. I really love the Astros bats tonight as Alvarez and Tucker are doing damage while the RHBs get to take on a guy that has struggled more with RHBs than LHBs at the MLB level so far. I was all over Urquidy in a get right spot last night so I have to be interested in a decent amount of Luis Garcia in our GPP builds. He probably offers us some safety for cash games as well.
DET 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Akil Baddoo
GPP Note: Team ISO of .099 over the last week.
HOU 5-star plays: Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker
4-star plays: Yordan Alvarez, Jeremy Pena
GPP Note: Team ISO of .203 over the last week..
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Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles (-115)
Pitchers:
Royals – Carlos Hernandez
Orioles – Jordan Lyles
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. This is another series that I have zero interest in watching. Maybe we see the Royals bats start to wake up but they’ve been pretty rough to begin the season. The Orioles have hit a few more HRs recently so they could be GPP winners against a struggling Hernandez. Lyles is going to make my notes on site because this Royals squad just isn’t getting it done right now.
KC 5-star plays: Salvador Perez
4-star plays: Whit Merrifield
GPP Note: Team ISO of .077 over the last week.
BAL 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres (-130)
Pitchers:
Marlins – Sandy Alcantara
Padres – Yu Darvish
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. I am a big fan of this pitching match-up, even if Alcantara is coming off of a terrible performance. I never like to stack against Darvish but it can work out every handful of starts as he struggles early in games. Machado has been on a tear all season so a mini-stack of him with Hosmer seems like an interesting GPP choice, even against Alcantara.
MIA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: Team ISO of .134 over the last week.
SD 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: Team ISO of .146 over the last week.
Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Angels
Pitchers:
Nationals – Joan Adon
Angels – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. We are still waiting for an official Angels announcement on their pitching plans. It is Lorenzen’s turn in the rotation but after throwing 100+ pitches and throwing into the 9th last time out, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pushed back a day. Most of the places I have seen are speculating that it will be Barria making the start. The Nationals offense picked up some steam in Coors but we have to remember they are leaving Colorado and heading back to normal altitude. I am all for picking on Adon with some Angels stacks tonight.
WSH 5-star plays: Yadiel Hernandez
4-star plays: Josh Bell, Juan Soto
GPP Note: Team ISO of .158 over the last week.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Brandon Marsh, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: Team ISO of .147 over the last week.
Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox (-170)
Pitchers:
White S0x – Vince Velasquez
Red Sox – Nathan Eovaldi
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8.5. A HUGE part of me wants to be all about the Red Sox against Velasquez. They have some really strong BvP against him and they love hitting in Fenway. The issue I have is that the weather is not the best for hitting overall. Eovaldi should be in play against a struggling CWS lineup. I know a couple of bats for the White Sox have been strong but the majority of the lineup has been horrendous to begin the season.
CWS 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Tim Anderson, Luis Robert
GPP Note: Team ISO of .135 over the last week.
BOS 5-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story
4-star plays: Rafael Devers, JD Martinez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .127 over the last week.
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Toronto Blue Jays (-150) @ Cleveland Guardians
Pitchers:
Blue Jays – Kevin Gausman
Guardians – Shane Bieber
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 6.5. We have a great SP match-up in a game that might not take place (weather). I have zero desire to stack against either SP and will look to use just a one-off here and there because of the power upside of a few players. Gausman has been spectacular with the Blue Jays and he faces a Guardians lineup that overachieved the first few weeks of the season. Bieber isn’t completely back to pre-surgery Bieber but he looks good.
TOR 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Bo Bichette
GPP Note: Team ISO of .173 over the last week.
CLE 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Team ISO of .124 over the last week.
Texas Rangers @ New York Yankees (-230)
Pitchers:
Rangers – Glenn Otto
Yankees – Gerrit Cole
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. This game has been PPD due to weather.
TEX 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Adolis Garcia, Corey Seager
GPP Note: Team ISO of .123 over the last week.
NYY 5-star plays: Aaron Judge
4-star plays: Anthony Rizzo, Joey Gallo
GPP Note: Team has 23 HRs in 13 home games this season.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners (-130)
Pitchers:
Rays – Matt Wisler/Josh Fleming
Mariners – Logan Gilbert
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 7. Tampa Bay is going to go with Wisler as an opener with Fleming expected to pitch the bulk in relief. I am really torn on the Mariners bats here as I do think they’ve overachieved to begin the season but I also don’t think very highly of Fleming. Gilbert has looked great to begin the season and he could be in for a very strong performance tonight. With the rainouts already announced but the other weather situations, I think Gilbert finds himself in chalky GPP territory.
TB 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Manuel Margot
GPP Note: Team ISO of .168 over the last week.
SEA 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez
GPP Note: Team ISO of .172 against LHPs this season.
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St Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants (-125)
Pitchers:
Cardinals – Jordan Hicks
Giants – Alex Cobb
Rundown:
This game has opened up with a total of 7. Hicks is most likely a 3-4 inning guy for the season but I like what I have seen from him so far. It’s always been about staying healthy for him. He’s not really in play for us because of his ceiling being so capped. Cobb returned from the IL and was lit up last time and I think he’s in some trouble in this game, despite the low projected total for St Louis. Pujols has hit him really well so I am curious to see who the Cards send out there at DH tonight.
STL 5-star plays: Tommy Edman
4-star plays: Albert Pujols, Nolan Arenado
GPP Note: Team ISO of just .152 over the last week.
SF 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Wilmer Flores
GPP Note: Team ISO of .075 over the last week.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Pitchers:
Dodgers – Tyler Anderson
Cubs – Undecided
Rundown:
Waiting on the Vegas information. This game has been PPD by rain already today.
LAD 5-star plays: Mookie Betts
4-star plays: Gavin Lux, Freddie Freeman
GPP Note: Team ISO of .156 over the last week.
CHC 5-star plays: NONE
4-star plays: Jonathan Villar, Patrick Wisdom
GPP Note: Team ISO of .102 over the last week.
Colorado Rockies @ Arizona Diamondbacks (-145)
Pitchers:
Rockies – Chad Kuhl
D’Backs – Merrill Kelly
Rundown:
This game has opened with a total of 8. Colorado bats have started to heat up but now they exit Coors field and face a guy who has been really strong to open 2022. There are some guys from both teams swinging it well right now so we could see more runs than we might initially think. I will play both SPs in my GPP builds while a guy like Kelly might be a cash SP2 option. We generally target SPs against COL when they come out of games at Coors.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron
4-star plays: Charlie Blackmon, Brendan Rodgers
GPP Note: Team ISO of .197 over the last week.
ARI 5-star plays: Ketel Marte
4-star plays: Daulton Varsho, Sergio Alcantara
GPP Note: Team ISO of .236 over the last week.
Stacks of the Day: Main Slate
- Houston Astros
- Boston Red Sox
- Minnesota Twins
MLB Dinger of the Day – Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
As always I appreciate everyone who gave the article a read! Feel free to mix it up with me in our coaching forums as news breaks and lock approaches.
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