Get your MLB DFS research started with DFS Army’s Full Count! Pitching advice, stack strategy, home run calls, and everything you need.
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army MLB Full Count! You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article out on Twitter as well as inside our coaching forums. With that said, let’s get it started!
Full Slate Breakdown Picks for MLB DFS 5/05:
May 4, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Rowdy Tellez (11) celebrates with shortstop Willy Adames (27) after hitting a grand slam home run during the third inning against the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
My Take on an Optimal MLB DFS Process – Looking at Pitchers
I always start an MLB DFS slate by looking at pitching, not only do you get a grasp on who the pitchers are that you want to target, but gives you a holistic look at the slate as well. Breaking down pitching also gives you an idea of what offenses are in good spots against bad/vulnerable pitchers. I start my research by going straight to the MLB Carnage Report this is where we can analyze all the pitchers on the slate in a compact, yet detailed manner. Below are the three pitchers that jumped out to me at first glance, good or bad.
- Shane McClanahan – Carnage Report ranking coming soon
- McClanahan has been really good this season and has huge strikeout stuff with a 29% k rate going back to the start of last season. He gets a nice matchup with the Mariners here if the weather will hold off.
- Robbie Ray – Carnage Report ranking coming soon
- Right on the other side of McClanahan is Ray who will get the start for the Mariners. He has McClanahan beat from a strikeout perspective with a 31% k rate going back to the start of last season but the matchup isn’t as good against this Rays team.
- Jesus Luzardo – Carnage Report ranking coming soon
- Luzardo has been good to start the season and heads into a pitcher’s park to face the Padres in this one. San Diego has some hot bats in Machado, Hosmer, and Profar, but I have confidence he can navigate them well enough to give us a nice start here.
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Early MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
Los Angeles Angels (-155) @ Boston Red Sox (+131)
Implied Run Totals:
Angels – 4.5 IRT
Red Sox – 3.7 IRT
Rundown:
We’ll start in Boston with an early game where Shohei Ohtani will take the mound in Fenway. Going back to the start of last season Ohtani has a 30% strikeout rate and will look like a nice option on this early slate with nice upside. Not to say you can’t get to some of these Red Sox bats though, he can be somewhat volatile. Rich Hill will start for Boston but won’t go too far before Tanner Houck comes in… I would have more interest in Houck than Hill in this one. Houck has looked good this season with an ERA below 3.00 and has double-digit DraftKings points in three of his last four games.
LAA 5-star plays: Mike Trout
4-star plays: Taylor Ward, Anthony Rendon, Jared Walsh
GPP Note: I have no issue with the Angels here but not being able to use Ohtani in your stacks hurts this stack a bit.
BOS 5-star plays: Rafael Devers
4-star plays: Xander Bogaerts, JD Martinez
GPP Note: I’ll like the Angels stack more but on a short slate I won’t talk you off of a team with big upside in Fenway.
Cincinnati Reds (+205) @ Milwaukee Brewers (-250)
Implied Run Totals:
Reds – 3.0 IRT
Brewers – 4.7 IRT
Rundown:
Hunter Greene will get the start for the Reds here after this pitching staff got throttled for 18 runs last night. Their bullpen will be pretty used up so they’ll need some innings from Greene who has actually been somewhat decent for fantasy purposes. He has a 26% strikeout rate on the season and gives you some upside if he can control the zone and limit his walks. That said, more of a GPP guy due to how well this Brewers team is swinging the bats. Speaking of the Brewers, Adrian Houser will get the start for them here, and looks like a nice option against a bad Reds lineup that is now dealing with some Covid issues which waters their lineup down even further.
CIN 5-star plays: Tommy Pham
4-star plays: Mike Moustakas
GPP Note: Probably just one-offs from the Reds, their lineup just isn’t good enough for me to what to stack fully.
MIL 5-star plays: Christian Yelich, Willy Adames, Rowdy Tellez
4-star plays: Kolten Wong, Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Renfroe
GPP Note: The Brewers are my favorite stack on the early slate and have some hot bats with guys like Wong, Adames, and Tellez who homered twice last night with eight RBI.
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Washington Nationals (+120) @ Colorado Rockies (-140)
Implied Run Totals:
Nationals – 5.2 IRT
Rockies – 6.0 IRT
Rundown:
This game falls at an odd time and isn’t on the early slate or the main slate which I guess I’m fine with, I don’t love slates with Coors on them anyway. That said, Aaron Sanchez will start for the Nats and probably not a guy you’ll want to get to here for fantasy purposes against a home Rockies team with an implied run total of 6.0. Antonio Senzatela will start for the Rockies and look a little better, but still not a guy I want to play unless I have to.
WAS 5-star plays: Juan Soto, Nelson Cruz
4-star plays: Maikel Franco
GPP Note: I would be chasing these big Nats bats in hopes they can take advantage of Coors here.
COL 5-star plays: CJ Cron, Charlie Blackmon
4-star plays: Connor Joe, Randal Grichuk
GPP Note: This offense has been swinging some good bats and will look like a great stack again here.
Toronto Blue Jays (-152) @ Cleveland Guardians (+130)
Implied Run Totals:
Blue Jays – 4.5 IRT
Guardians – 3.7 IRT
Rundown:
Jose Berrios will get the ball for Toronto in a game that isn’t on the main slate either but will still look like a great option here. Berrios has at least 31 FanDuel points in three straight games and this Guardians lineup isn’t one that scares me off of him. Aaron Civale will take the mound for Cleveland and probably isn’t a guy I’ll be too high on against a really good Toronto lineup. Civale’s hard contact rate is approaching 40% since the start of last season.
TOR 5-star plays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
4-star plays: Bo Bichette, George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel
GPP Note: No issue with the Jays here if you’re on a slate that has this game.
CLE 5-star plays: Jose Ramirez
4-star plays: Josh Naylor
GPP Note: Just one-offs for me from Cleveland, I’ll have a good amount of interest in Berrios here.
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Main MLB Slate Player Projections and Stacks:
New York Mets (+137) @ Philadelphia Phillies (-163)
Implied Run Totals:
Mets – 3.6 IRT
Phillies – 4.6 IRT
Rundown:
Finally onto the main slate where we’ll start with Taijaun Walker getting the ball against Philadelphia. Walker has yet to give up a run this season but hasn’t exactly been stretched out with his most pitches being 73 last time out. I would think that’s his floor as long as he’s pitching good enough to stay in the game here and will look like a solid enough option but the matchup kind of sucks. Austin Nola will start for the Phillies and will be a guy I like a good amount here. The ERA is rough at 3.90, but the strikeout upside is enough to mitigate the runs he’ll give up if he struggles with a 30% k rate going back to the start of last season.
NYM 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Starling Marte, Franciso Lindor, Peter Alonso
GPP Note: The Mets are a solid GPP stack, when Nola struggles he REALLY struggles.
PHI 5-star plays: Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper
4-star plays: Nick Castellanos, JT Realmuto, Alec Bohm
GPP Note: The Phillies will look like a nice stack here against Walker who looks to give up his first earned runs of the season.
Minnesota Twins (-166) @ Baltimore Orioles (+145)
Implied Run Totals:
Twins – 4.6 IRT
Orioles – 3.6 IRT
Rundown:
Chris Archer and the Twins heading into Baltimore which has turned into more of a pitcher’s park out of nowhere this season. I guess you can make a case for Archer but I just don’t see the ceiling or upside with him… more of a cash guy if you need a punt starter. Spenser Watkins will start for Baltimore and probably isn’t a guy that I’ll want to get to here either. The ERA looks good at just 2.55, but that has some serious regression coming. Going back to the start of last season he has just a 13% k rate and has an ERA of 6.72, maybe he’s figured some things out, but the risk/reward isn’t there for me.
MIN 5-star plays: Byron Buxton
4-star plays: Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler
GPP Note: I like the Twins a good amount against Watkins and this Orioles bullpen behind him.
BAL 5-star plays: Cedric Mullins
4-star plays: Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Trey Mancini
GPP Note: I would probably lean to Baltimore as a mini-stack more so than a full-stack, but I won’t talk you off of them if that’s where you want to go on this slate.
Detroit Tigers (+145) @ Houston Astros (-170)
Implied Run Totals:
Tigers – 3.8 IRT
Astros – 4.9 IRT
Rundown:
Tarik Skubal will start for the Tigers and is a guy that has been solid this season. He has a 26% strikeout rate going back to the start of last season, so he gives you some nice upside but the risk is there as well with a 37% hard contact rate against a really good Astros lineup. I’ll likely leave him as a GPP option if you need some savings as an SP2 guy. Jose Urquidy will get the ball for Houston and hasn’t been all that great this season with an ERA of 5.95 but gets a nice matchup here. The nice thing with Urquidy is his ability to limit hard contact but the strikeout stuff really isn’t there, just the opposite of Skubal, but gets a better matchup.
DET 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Javier Baez, Austin Meadows, Robbie Grossman
GPP Note: I trust Urquidy enough to be pesky around this Tigers lineup.
HOU 5-star plays: Alex Bregman
4-star plays: Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker
GPP Note: This Astros lineup is better against righties but still has the upside to chase Skubal from this one.
Tampa Bay Rays (-134) @ Seattle Mariners (+114)
Implied Run Totals:
Rays – 3.8 IRT
Mariners – 3.4 IRT
Rundown:
It looks like we’ll have some weather in the area for this one, so keep an eye on the Weather Station for updates surrounding pitching and hitting here. I’ll operate under the assumption that we’ll be good on both fronts here, but something you’ll want to consider before lock. Shane McClanahan will start for the Rays and is one of my favorite pitchers in the league right now and will be a guy I go right back to here. This Mariners lineup doesn’t scare me and McClanahan has elite strikeout stuff with a 29% k rate going back to the start of last season. Speaking of elite strikeout stuff, Robbie Ray will get the start for the Mariners and has McClanahan beat with a 31% k rate… both pitchers look great here if the weather cooperates.
TBR 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, Mike Zunino
GPP Note: More of a mini-stack in case Ray loses control which he has a tendency of doing.
SEA 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Ty France, Eugenio Suarez, Jesse Winker
GPP Note: Similar story for Seattle, I’ll have much more interest in McClanahan as a pitching option.
Miami Marlins (-106) @ San Diego Padres (-112)
Implied Run Totals:
Marlins – 3.6 IRT
Padres – 3.6 IRT
Rundown:
Jesus Luzardo will take the mound for the Marlins here and has been pretty good to start the season with a 3.10 ERA on the season. He has at least 23 DraftKings points in three of his four starts this season and ill be a guy I go right back to here. Nick Martinez will start for the Padres and get a nice matchup against a young Marlins lineup. That said, I’m not sure how much I love getting to him here. He does get a nice pitcher’s park and matchup, but the upside isn’t all that huge… so more of a cash game guy than anything.
MIA 5-star plays: Jazz Chisholm
4-star plays: Jorge Soler, Jesus Sanchez, Jesus Aguilar
GPP Note: I like the Marlins as a tournament stack against Martinez, they have some nice power/speed upside.
SDP 5-star plays: Manny Machado
4-star plays: Jurickson Profar, Eric Hosmer
GPP Note: The Padres have some hot bats right now but I trust Luzardo to navigate this lineup good enough, I’ll leave this stack for tournaments as well.
St. Louis Cardinals (-118) @ San Franciso Giants (-100)
Implied Run Totals:
Cardinals – 3.9 IRT
Giants – 3.7 IRT
Rundown:
Miles Mikolas will take the mound for the Cardinals and gets a pretty good matchup against this Giants lineup in a pitcher’s park in San Fran. Mikolas has at least 40 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and will be a guy I think we can go right back to here. It should be a pretty good pitcher’s duel with Logan Webb starting for the Giants on the other side of this one. Webb has a 2.70 ERA on the season and a nice 25% strikeout rate going back to the start of last year. Both of these guys look like nice options to round out this slate.
STL 5-star plays: Nolan Arenado
4-star plays: Tyler O’Neill, Paul Goldschmidt
GPP Note: I like the pitching more in this game than anything but no issue with some one-off bats.
SFG 5-star plays: None
4-star plays: Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, Mike Yastrzemski
GPP Note: Similar to the Cardinals, I’ll like the pitchers more than anything here but one-offs are certainly in play.
MLB season is upon us! DFSArmy VIP Members had a big season last year and are in for some big things again this season! We will have cheat sheets, breakdowns, and many other tools to help make you successful in one of the more volatile fantasy sports.
Stacks of the Day: Main MLB Slate
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Minnesota Twins
- Houston Astros
MLB DFS Dinger of the Day – Kyle Schwarber (DK – $3.8k; FD – $3.8k)
I like going right back to Schwarber here who will hit leadoff for one of my favorite stacks on the day. He’s swinging a hot bat and has a 0.380 ISO and 0.580 SLG against righties on the season. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your dinger predictions and if you’re right I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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